Texas Winter 2018-2019

[opticsguy]

For those planning travel to the Midwest bear in mind that there is virtually no ice on the Great Lakes, so when -30F air comes down from Canada there is going to be snow downwind.

[Yukon Cornelius]

So far it’s been a big temp bust today. A little after 2:00 and it’s only 34.

[orangeblood]

IMO A Blockbuster type pattern is in the making for portions of the Southern Plains including TX starting next weekend... As was said above in previous postings you must not get caught up in each run as models are going to be all over the place and are trying to catch onto the changes that are coming. Bottom line as of RIGHT NOW the GFS/EURO show a COLD RAIN just ahead of the actual freezing temps but I expect that cold air to rush in quicker than the models are expecting. Areas to watch would be just north of the DFW Metroplex late Fri into Sat for a frz rain event.... Wed the 23rd + or - a day or two needs to be watched also for a winter storm!

I fully expect a winter storm within the next 7-10 days so expect us to add to the pages and quickly

12Z Euro Control is out of control....Arctic Front every 2-3 days with reload after reload across Canada then the Mother Load (-40 Deg C) showing up towards the end of the run (GFS FV3 has been hinting at this as well)

[somethingfunny]

In 16 years living in DFW I can't remember any January snow events save for that overnight surprise "thundergraupel" event a while back. Always take a snow forecast with a grain of salt but especially in January

First week of February is where most of our snowfalls occur. It's almost in range of the fantasy models, let's hope the snowpack stays thick to our north.

[Ntxw]

EPS (Euro ensembles). I will say, collectively as a group our posters together may not always get right the individuality of events, but through experience we are pretty good at picking out major changes for upcoming periods when discussing wholesale change.



Heat Miser has been quiet the past several days. Usually on cue he would be giving us the pessimistic view by now. Good sign.

[Cerlin]

EPS (Euro ensembles). I will say, collectively as a group our posters together may not always get right the individuality of events, but through experience we are pretty good at picking out major changes for upcoming periods when discussing wholesale change.

https://images2.imgbox.com/cf/5c/xOcAReoM_o.png

Heat Miser has been quiet the past several days. Usually on cue he would be giving us the pessimistic view by now. Good sign.

I appreciate his pessimism as it keeps us in check when we’re grasping for signs of winter life in desperate times...but these times ahead are far from desperate by the looks of it!

[bubba hotep]

Don't panic y'all there is plenty of cold for everybody. I like the ensembles look. Generally speaking everyone along and east of the Rockies should get cold and maybe storms. The ENS keeps the height rises off the west coast which is good for Texas as well as some -NAO.

My concern going forward is suppression more than not cold enough.

Agreed, this is Big League Cold that can overwhelm the continent....plenty of analogs proving that point (77/78 Jan/Feb keep on popping up)!! No reason to panic, the latest FV3 illustrates this...there's a 1060MB plus HP building behind this cold. In fact the 6Z would be record breaking for a lot of the country (including Texas) if it came to pass!!



https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2019011306/fv3p_T2ma_namer_56.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2019011306/fv3p_T2ma_namer_65.png

Looking at the records, the cold of the late 70's was very impressive with '76 - '79 accounting for 3 of the Top 10 coldest winters at DFW. However, we saw two of the warmest winters here from '15 - '17. Anyway, I like the GEFS in the long range and it has been scoring out a bit better than the EPS at times.

00z GEFS 5D avg for end of run, no end in sight. We just need to get a couple of systems with the right track and we could see snow on top of snow.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2019011300/gfs-ens_T850aMean_namer_12.png

As Ntxw posted a couple of post above, the D10 Euro EPS looks good. And in the long range, the EPS D15 5-day 500mb avg pulled the entire pattern back west to match up closer to the GEFS posted above. The last couple of EPS runs were wanting to establish the Western ridge inland and, thus, shifting the coldest anomalies east. I've been putting more weight on the GEFS in the D10-15 period because it, IMHO, matched up closer to what one would expect given the evolution across the Pacific. And now for the broken record part of this post, we just need to get a couple of systems to track right for Texas.

[TXdaddy217]

I keep telling my kids, just as with Santa Claus....He Does Exist. He Does Exist.

[bubba hotep]

I don't think a '78 style stretch is that far fetched given the way things are unfolding. This is from the NWS page:

February 17, 1978
The last in a series of five snow events that began in mid-January also had the greatest totals. Between 4-8 inches fell from Throckmorton to Gainesville and north of a line through Dublin, Cleburne, Terrell, and Sulphur Springs.

[orangeblood]

I don't think a '78 style stretch is that far fetched given the way things are unfolding. This is from the NWS page:

February 17, 1978
The last in a series of five snow events that began in mid-January also had the greatest totals. Between 4-8 inches fell from Throckmorton to Gainesville and north of a line through Dublin, Cleburne, Terrell, and Sulphur Springs.

The historical 500mb chart during that stretch is phenomenal!!!

[dhweather]

EPS (Euro ensembles). I will say, collectively as a group our posters together may not always get right the individuality of events, but through experience we are pretty good at picking out major changes for upcoming periods when discussing wholesale change.

https://images2.imgbox.com/cf/5c/xOcAReoM_o.png

Heat Miser has been quiet the past several days. Usually on cue he would be giving us the pessimistic view by now. Good sign.

I appreciate his pessimism as it keeps us in check when we’re grasping for signs of winter life in desperate times...but these times ahead are far from desperate by the looks of it!

Unfortunately, with the arctic blasts, we usually get very dry air, so unless the STJ kicks in, we will be cold and dry.

[Ntxw]

18z GFS for this weekend. Only tip of the iceberg but it may be coldest air of season until the next bout hits. May even be a few degrees colder as time period gets closer. It has subfreezing day Sunday.

[TheProfessor]

Lucy is licking her chops right now getting ready to heartbreak us in the Midwest and Northeast. It's not very often a storm crushes both the Midwest and the Northeast lol. A lot of people are excited right now.

Don't tell the Northeast folks but I'd be okay with a Texas low that becomes an Apps runner, bringing snow from Texas to Ohio. Of course with my luck it would become a deep south storm and a potent Nor'Easter xD.

[Quixotic]

I don't think a '78 style stretch is that far fetched given the way things are unfolding. This is from the NWS page:

February 17, 1978
The last in a series of five snow events that began in mid-January also had the greatest totals. Between 4-8 inches fell from Throckmorton to Gainesville and north of a line through Dublin, Cleburne, Terrell, and Sulphur Springs.

I remember February 78. It seemed as there was a chance of snow every day. It still is the most anomalous month. -11

[gpsnowman]

I will be in downtown Dallas January 19-21. It will be COLD walking around the city!! Can't wait, although my wife isn't crazy about this development. Hopefully we see a little snow this weekend and hope the Greenland block holds true forcing the cold strait south. We are due. Exciting times ahead for sure!!!!

[Ntxw]

DFW airport's high today was 41F a little past midnight over night. Since then most of today hovered around 37-39 all day.

On Thursday and Friday the GFS runs had highs in the afternoon today 48-50F. What's a 10F temperature bust among friends?

[GalvestonWXGeek]

The shift to warmth has been incredible up here in Bethel, Alaska. Minus 26F with snow yesterday. Positive 31F and freezing rain today. Cold air must be going somewhere. Hopefully, it's headed to Texas.

Sent from my SM-J337U using Tapatalk

[ThunderSleetDreams]

FV3 18z unloads 30 hours of winter precip over SE TX from 228-258 hours and then reloads and does it again a couple days later.

That’s now the GFS, and FV3 showing wintry precip.

[Ntxw]

I don't think a '78 style stretch is that far fetched given the way things are unfolding. This is from the NWS page:

February 17, 1978
The last in a series of five snow events that began in mid-January also had the greatest totals. Between 4-8 inches fell from Throckmorton to Gainesville and north of a line through Dublin, Cleburne, Terrell, and Sulphur Springs.

Anthony Masiello has been mentioning the similarities of 1978. He's not usually one to use analogs or tout a specific weather pattern but him mentioning it gives pause.

[Ntxw]

Of note, beware of the GFS and FV3 OP models. The past week it's been correcting to the EPS and GEFS (ensembles) of lowering the PNA and perhaps even some negative PNA from the very current values after the 23rd. Thus if you see runs where cold is thrown off the southeast coast, is likely to correct itself in time.