Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Tejas89]

The really cold air has stayed north and east all winter. Whatever happened to our blue northers? The polar vortex always seems more of a midwest/east event.

Local media has been reduced to hyping up fronts that drop us into the 40s.

[Brent]

The really cold air has stayed north and east all winter. Whatever happened to our blue northers? The polar vortex always seems more of a midwest/east event.

Local media has been reduced to hyping up fronts that drop us into the 40s.

been really sad... for the lack of snow we havent even had any real cold air either... just very boring

[wxman57]

The really cold air has stayed north and east all winter. Whatever happened to our blue northers? The polar vortex always seems more of a midwest/east event.

Local media has been reduced to hyping up fronts that drop us into the 40s.

Too much zonal (west to east) flow. Typically, that's great for snow across Texas, but only if enough cold air makes it down from Canada. It was very close to a very snowy winter, but the temps were just a few deg too warm. I really thought we'd get some significant snow events, even down to Houston this winter. All we got was cold rain, sleet, and an occasional snow pellet.

[Brent]

The really cold air has stayed north and east all winter. Whatever happened to our blue northers? The polar vortex always seems more of a midwest/east event.

Local media has been reduced to hyping up fronts that drop us into the 40s.

Too much zonal (west to east) flow. Typically, that's great for snow across Texas, but only if enough cold air makes it down from Canada. It was very close to a very snowy winter, but the temps were just a few deg too warm. I really thought we'd get some significant snow events, even down to Houston this winter. All we got was cold rain, sleet, and an occasional snow pellet.

too zonal and too progressive for sure... I mean even up north it was extreme cold to extreme warmth a few days later(Chicago and NYC for example), very drastic shifts

oh and it's been Seattle's winter too... they have more snow than most of the east coast cities

[wxman57]

12Z FV3-GFS is in. I was curious about that 1061mb high the GFS predicts for March 2nd. Would it show up on the FV3? The answer is, no. Completely different 500mb flow pattern. I suspect that the new FV3-GFS is more correct, but not necessarily correct.

FV3 500mb Flow 384 hrs - zonal flow and/or flow toward Great Lakes & New England:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2019021412/fv3p_z500_vort_namer_65.png

FV3 Surface Map - 1032mb high over Iowa:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2019021412/fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_64.png

GFS 500mb Flow 384 hrs - flow from northern Canada down into Montana:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019021412/gfs_z500_vort_namer_53.png

GFS Surface Map - 1061mb high over Montana:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019021412/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_52.png

[TeamPlayersBlue]

So now that were actually in a nino patter (lol) and all of a sudden, MJO is going from 7-8-1..... is this not a coincidence at all? Kind of what we expected for most of the winter, instead it may occur in March?

[gpsnowman]

Fifteen years ago this morning my girlfriend now wife and I woke up to heavy snow falling. A couple inches had already fallen with at least two more to go. By sunrise all the neighborhood kids were outside and a street snowball war commenced. A few adults participated including the two of us. We sure felt like children that day. Ahhhh the joys of winter snow.

[South Texas Storms]

How about today's extended range 18z GFS!?

[harp]

How about today's extended range 18z GFS!?

????

[South Texas Storms]

How about today's extended range 18z GFS!?

????

It shows very cold temperatures with snow and ice down into north TX during the first few days of March.

[Brent]

[Texas Snowman]

How about today's extended range 18z GFS!?

????

It shows very cold temperatures with snow and ice down into north TX during the first few days of March.

Cue Wxman57’s rebuttal in 3...2...1...

[Brent]

Happy March

I'm sure next run will show a blowtorch

[Cpv17]

How about today's extended range 18z GFS!?

Let’s get this inside 5 days. Then I might start to get excited lol

[harp]

How about today's extended range 18z GFS!?

????

It shows very cold temperatures with snow and ice down into north TX during the first few days of March.

Ok, I'm in Louisiana. It showed nothing for me. I gotta remember most of you guys are in Texas! LOL! *hitting self in head*

[Cpv17]

What does a tanking SOI index have to do with rain chances in Texas? I’d like to learn more about that.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

How about today's extended range 18z GFS!?

I see a Cat 5 in the Gulf.

[Tejas89]

It's fun to see what other parts of the country are experiencing at least. The Sierra Nevada is getting absolutely hammered with multiple feet of snow.

Kansas City reached 57 this afternoon. Currently at 28 and that happened with the quickness. High of 20 tomorrow if they're lucky... accompanied by wind and snow. Midwest winters can be a serious roller coaster like we don't see in most of Texas.

[Ntxw]

What does a tanking SOI index have to do with rain chances in Texas? I’d like to learn more about that.

-SOI is tied to an El Nino tropical Pacific pattern. When the SOI nosedives negative it means tropical convection has blown up over the Central Pacific. There is some lag time (a couple of weeks) for seen effects. SOI is seen as daily, monthly, and trimonthly calculations of the pressure between Darwin, Australia and Tahiti. Daily SOI is a bit noisy but when you see it rise significantly or sink significantly you are altering global patterns. Monthly SOI is an aggregate of the daily SOI and can (varying by seasons) tell you if a month is wet or dry as a whole for Texas. Convection in the Central Pacific feeds the subtropical jet, it is the source. Some of the known wettest months in Texas, Spring 1957, 1997, 2007, 2015 are among the lowest monthly SOI values. The opposite is true with +SOI such as summer 2011.

That is a very simplistic, basic view of SOI as it is one part tied to ENSO.

[Ntxw]

There is potential for some high temp busts against forecast this weekend for some. Cold front blows through tomorrow evening and depending on return flow or density of the air mass, it's either 40F midday Saturday or 55F+. The same will be said for the following days. OKC was in this kind of predicament during the last round where they straddled the boundary and had some 20F+ temperature busts.