Texas Winter 2018-2019

[CYCLONE MIKE]

How about today's extended range 18z GFS!?

I see a Cat 5 in the Gulf.

Before long it they will be showing up in the 384 hr range, as well as the gfs continuing to insist that winter is not over and will only be 2 weeks away.

[somethingfunny]

The first two weeks of February are our snow season and this past weekend was when it should have happened. Several rounds of post-frontal precip during an extended cold snap... It was just about 5 degrees too warm.

That was probably our only shot.

[Portastorm]

No love from the overnight guidance.

Was really hoping we'd see a rally in the models to give us something to hope for next week. Folks along the Red River like Yukon Cornelius might see some action. Otherwise ... the same ol, same ol. #FightingDepression

[wxman57]

No love from the overnight guidance.

Was really hoping we'd see a rally in the models to give us something to hope for next week. Folks along the Red River like Yukon Cornelius might see some action. Otherwise ... the same ol, same ol. #FightingDepression

I thought you all would be excited about the big Texas snow storm. Yeah, it's still two weeks out...

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019021506/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_49.png

[Cerlin]

No love from the overnight guidance.

Was really hoping we'd see a rally in the models to give us something to hope for next week. Folks along the Red River like Yukon Cornelius might see some action. Otherwise ... the same ol, same ol. #FightingDepression

I thought you all would be excited about the big Texas snow storm. Yeah, it's still two weeks out...

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019021506/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_49.png

I mean that is a few times in a row but...

[Yukon Cornelius]

No love from the overnight guidance.

Was really hoping we'd see a rally in the models to give us something to hope for next week. Folks along the Red River like Yukon Cornelius might see some action. Otherwise ... the same ol, same ol. #FightingDepression

Last time I checked it was in out forecast. We'll see though.

[dhweather]

12Z FV3-GFS is in. I was curious about that 1061mb high the GFS predicts for March 2nd. Would it show up on the FV3? The answer is, no. Completely different 500mb flow pattern. I suspect that the new FV3-GFS is more correct, but not necessarily correct.

FV3 500mb Flow 384 hrs - zonal flow and/or flow toward Great Lakes & New England:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2019021412/fv3p_z500_vort_namer_65.png

FV3 Surface Map - 1032mb high over Iowa:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2019021412/fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_64.png

GFS 500mb Flow 384 hrs - flow from northern Canada down into Montana:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019021412/gfs_z500_vort_namer_53.png

GFS Surface Map - 1061mb high over Montana:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019021412/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_52.png

The FV3 is a step in the right direction. Sure it needs some tweaking, but it also does well in some areas. FV3 2.0 should be really good. With the FV3 being truly scaleable code, this will be great for the long run.

People have bashed the GFS and complained about NOAA not doing anything about it. Well they are doing something about it, so cut them some slack.

I did find it interesting that the director of the ECMWF (in the forbes article) thought much better of the GFS than most people do.

[Cerlin]

Snooze fest on the 12z GFS...

[hriverajr]

Snooze fest on the 12z GFS...

Just following the models pattern all winter as they go from long range to medium range.

[wxman57]

The GFS giveth, the GFS taketh away...

[Tireman4]

The GFS giveth, the GFS taketh away...

Well, I only trust the EXTRP and LBAR anyway..

[bubba hotep]

I don't know, I've been encouraged by trends on both the Euro and EPS. I wouldn't rule out something next week for N. Texas and I'm liking the period from the end of February into early March. All hope is not lost!

[orangeblood]

I don't know, I've been encouraged by trends on both the Euro and EPS. I wouldn't rule out something next week for N. Texas and I'm liking the period from the end of February into early March. All hope is not lost!

Yep, agreed...I'll take this setup any day over a progressive/ Positive PNA pattern. Unfortunately, we've been getting the extreme of both ends of the PNA over the past few winters. Moisture is there now, all we need is the cold to push the Monster Southeast ridge enough and we have a good shot! Massive amount of cold coming down from the Arctic towards the end of the latest Euro run!!!

1978 Analog Match (MJO and Stratwarm) still gives me hope that this could go to the extreme to finish out winter

[newtotex]

I'm about ready for severe weather season. This is my last Spring in Texas so hoping to make the best of it

[Cpv17]

Beaumont area looking real good for rain on the latest Euro.

[hriverajr]

Well. 87 at my home and climbing...

90 now

[Texas Snow]

Well since it’s not snowing and its 75, we are driving to the lake. Gonna put the jetskis in the water for a few hours until the front gets through. Freakin February.

[bubba hotep]

New Wk 3-4 outlook issued, remember that climo starts trending wetter in March so avg precipitation would suggest multiple events with below normal temps. Let's Ride!

[bubba hotep]

I don't know, I've been encouraged by trends on both the Euro and EPS. I wouldn't rule out something next week for N. Texas and I'm liking the period from the end of February into early March. All hope is not lost!

Yep, agreed...I'll take this setup any day over a progressive/ Positive PNA pattern. Unfortunately, we've been getting the extreme of both ends of the PNA over the past few winters. Moisture is there now, all we need is the cold to push the Monster Southeast ridge enough and we have a good shot! Massive amount of cold coming down from the Arctic towards the end of the latest Euro run!!!

1978 Analog Match (MJO and Stratwarm) still gives me hope that this could go to the extreme to finish out winter

There are signs showing up that the SE ridge should relax in the means and shift to core of the coldest air out of the West and into the Central Plains. I'll try to get a more detailed post up later discussing my reasoning.

[weatherdude1108]

Bob Rose:

Temperatures Trending Cooler Early Next Week Along with a Chance for Showers.

Friday, February 15, 2019 2:07 PM

The warmest temperatures since last November are forecast across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions this afternoon as west and southwesterly breezes develop across Central and South Texas. Breezes out of the west and southwest are typically down sloping, warm winds for our region, as the air descends from the high elevations of the Mexican plateau. This warm air, combined with scattered sunshine, is expected to push today's temperature up to the middle and upper 80s! The coastal plains regions should see high temperatures around 78-80 degrees. Expect west and southwesterly breezes in the range of 10-20 mph through late afternoon. Today's taste of very spring-like weather will likely be short-lived, however, as slightly cooler air spreads into the area beginning tonight.

Friday's weather maps showed upper-level winds were traveling from west to east across the southern US. These high-level winds were pushing considerable middle and high-level clouds eastward from the Pacific Ocean, creating a partly cloudy to mostly sunny sky across our region. Similar conditions are predicted for Saturday and Sunday. These clouds contain little moisture, so dry weather conditions are forecast from this afternoon through Sunday afternoon.

As of late Friday morning, a Canadian cold front was located across North Texas, just to the south of the Red River. Temperatures behind the front were mostly in the 20s and 30s. The front is forecast to remain nearly stationary through late afternoon, then begin sagging to the south this evening and overnight. The front is forecast to reach the northern Hill Country late this evening and the Austin area shortly after midnight. The cold front is forecast to stall somewhere near Interstate 10 on Saturday. For locations to the north of the boundary, cooler temperatures are forecast for Friday night and Saturday. Low temperatures Saturday morning will be in the mid and upper 40s, while high temperatures Saturday will generally be around 68-70 degrees. For locations south of the front, low temperatures Saturday morning will be in the low and middle 50s. High temperatures Saturday will be in the low 70s. Low temperatures Sunday morning will range from the upper 40s across the Hill Country, to the low and mid-50s across Central Texas to the low 60s across the coastal plains. Sunday's temperature should generally warm to the upper 60s.

A reinforcing shot of cooler air is predicted to push south across the region Sunday night into Monday morning, bringing even cooler temperatures to the area for the first half of next week. This next front should clear the entire region and move into the Gulf of Mexico. Forecasts call for the large trough of low pressure located off the West Coast to push inland early next week, with small waves of low pressure ejecting east from the upper low next week. Several small waves of low pressure moving into Texas out of the West are forecast to cause the development of an overrunning pattern of clouds and light rain beginning Monday. The outlook calls for a mostly cloudy sky with occasional periods of light rain. The best chance for rain looks to occur Tuesday into early Wednesday and also Thursday into early Friday. Rain amounts next week are expected to be low, with most totals averaging less than a quarter inch.

High temperatures Monday will generally be in the mid-50s but look to cool to the upper 40s Tuesday before returning to the low and mid-50s Wednesday. High temperatures Thursday and Friday should be in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Low temperatures Tuesday morning will range from the mid and upper 30s across the Hill Country, to the upper 40s across Central Texas to the upper 40s near the coast. Tuesday night into Wednesday morning is shaping up to be the coldest night next week. Lows Wednesday morning will include the low and mid-30s across the Hill Country, the mid and upper 30s across Central Texas and the middle 40s across the coastal plains. Lows Thursday and Friday mornings will generally be in the low and middle 40s.

Long-range forecasts call for temperatures to remain somewhat cool next weekend into the following week, with high temperatures in the 60s and low temperatures in the 40s. There is some indication we may see some colder temperatures arriving around the 27th and the 28th. Rain amounts through the end of the month are predicted to remain low.


A Weak El Niño has Officially Developed

National Weather Service forecasters announced Thursday the large tongue of warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific has finally couple with the atmosphere to the point it has reached the criteria to be declared a weak El Niño. Atmospheric and oceanic conditions appear favorable for the El Nino to persist through spring and possibly even into early summer. According to NWS forecasters, due to the expected weak strength of the El Niño, widespread or significant global impacts are not anticipated. However, the El Niño is expected to cause an active subtropical jet stream across the southern US through spring, which will have the potential to being numerous storms to Texas. This active jet stream will also have the potential to enhance the upcoming spring severe weather season. Stay tuned for further updates.

Mercury Returns to the Evening Sky

If you've never seen the planet Mercury before – or even if you have – take advantage of your golden opportunity to see Mercury after sunset over the next few weeks. February 2019 showcases Mercury's best appearance in the evening sky for the year for northerly latitudes. Here's how to find Mercury. Make sure you have an unobstructed view of the horizon in the direction of sunset, and, if possible, perch yourself on top of a hill or balcony. Then as dusk deepens into darkness, look for Mercury to pop out low in the sky, and close to the sunset point on the horizon. You may see Mercury with the eye alone an hour or so after sunset. With binoculars, you can spot Mercury even earlier. But don't dally, for locations across the southern US, Mercury will follow the sun and sink below the horizon about and an hour to an hour and 20 minutes after sundown.

Mercury is often hard to see in our sky. That's because Mercury, the innermost planet, orbits the sun inside of Earth's orbit and is often lost in the glare of the sun. But, at opportune times, we can see Mercury for a brief while in the evening sky after sunset, or, at other times, briefly in the morning sky before sunrise. The next few weeks will be one of those great opportune times to see Mercury. Don't miss it! (Earthsky.org)

Have a good weekend.

Bob

https://www.lcra.org/water/river-and-we ... ather.aspx