Texas Winter 2018-2019

[bubba hotep]

12z GEFS is wetter and snowier for DFW. The ICON is farthest East and the FV3 is the farthest West of the 12z runs. GFS soundings look good in the snow band with surface temps now in the mid-30s.

[Captmorg70]

12z GEFS is wetter and snowier for DFW. The ICON is farthest East and the FV3 is the farthest West of the 12z runs. GFS soundings look good in the snow band with surface temps now in the mid-30s.

But what about the CMC

[weatherdude1108]

I have a hard time believing this storm would just die out before DFW. It's dynamic.

The problem is it has a limited amount of cold air to work with that it's bringing down from Canada....as soon as it bombs out the clock is ticking before the warm gulf air gets entrained/erodes all of the cold air!!! This looks like it'll be a quick hitter for a lucky few counties in North Texas

You can see this on the models out of this sequence....1st frame it has a direct tap into Canada, then 2nd frame it is cut-off and eroding quickly

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2018121112/fv3p_T850_us_10.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2018121112/fv3p_T850_us_16.png

Man if this were Springtime with this kind of low, we'd be talking about a severe weather outbreak somewhere.

[JayDT]

12z GEFS is wetter and snowier for DFW. The ICON is farthest East and the FV3 is the farthest West of the 12z runs. GFS soundings look good in the snow band with surface temps now in the mid-30s.

Well I guess this makes me more hopeful then.. Hopefully things keep trending better and better for all of us across DFW I know i’m not the only frustrated one around here lol

[Lagreeneyes03]

I have a hard time believing this storm would just die out before DFW. It's dynamic.

The problem is it has a limited amount of cold air to work with that it's bringing down from Canada....as soon as it bombs out the clock is ticking before the warm gulf air gets entrained/erodes all of the cold air!!! This looks like it'll be a quick hitter for a lucky few counties in North Texas

You can see this on the models out of this sequence....1st frame it has a direct tap into Canada, then 2nd frame it is cut-off and eroding quickly

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2018121112/fv3p_T850_us_10.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2018121112/fv3p_T850_us_16.png

Man if this were Springtime with this kind of low, we'd be talking about a severe weather outbreak somewhere.

Why does the gulf air erode the cold, and not vice-versa at this time of year?

[orangeblood]

The problem is it has a limited amount of cold air to work with that it's bringing down from Canada....as soon as it bombs out the clock is ticking before the warm gulf air gets entrained/erodes all of the cold air!!! This looks like it'll be a quick hitter for a lucky few counties in North Texas

You can see this on the models out of this sequence....1st frame it has a direct tap into Canada, then 2nd frame it is cut-off and eroding quickly

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2018121112/fv3p_T850_us_10.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2018121112/fv3p_T850_us_16.png

Man if this were Springtime with this kind of low, we'd be talking about a severe weather outbreak somewhere.

Why does the gulf air erode the cold, and not vice-versa at this time of year?

due to the Polar Jet being far north/cuts off reinforcing cold air where there isn't enough support to fight off the erosion of warm/moist gulf air. The storm is actually a product of its own demise (wintry weather-wise) where the polar jet bowing then lifting northward allowed it to cut-off in the first place but in turn, cut off it's lifeline to cold air

As has been discussed previously, as we get deeper into winter and this scenario unfolds again, we could have deeper/colder air at the upper and lower levels to work with....

[orangeblood]

12Z Euro...Operationals, except for the Crazy Uncle, has been very consistent this morning with core of heavy snow around Stephenville to Abilene TX with somewhere between 8-12 inches in spots

[Brent]

Euro is a bit better for the metro this run, has 2 inches around Fort Worth, Dallas still blanks but wouldn't take much more east.

[bubba hotep]

12Z Euro...Operationals, except for the Crazy Uncle, has been very consistent this morning with core of heavy snow around Stephenville to Abilene TX with somewhere between 8-12 inches in spots

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2018121112/texas/ecmwf_tsnow_texas_15.png

Need to start shifting that snow band NE over the next couple of model cycles. This run drops nearly a foot of snow SW of DFW.

[HockeyTx82]

When, if ever with this type of setup, can we start locking in the snowfall totals? One of those real time forecasts?

[Brent]

When, if ever with this type of setup, can we start locking in the snowfall totals? One of those real time forecasts?

When you measure it in your yard lol

Seriously this is gonna be a total nowcast i believe

[HockeyTx82]

When, if ever with this type of setup, can we start locking in the snowfall totals? One of those real time forecasts?

When you measure it in your yard lol

Seriously this is gonna be a total nowcast i believe

So if I measure no snow, I still get to use the word snow. Glass half full approach.........

[gboudx]

When, if ever with this type of setup, can we start locking in the snowfall totals? One of those real time forecasts?

When you measure it in your yard lol

Seriously this is gonna be a total nowcast i believe

So if I measure no snow, I still get to use the word snow. Glass half full approach.........

For those not familiar with the technical details of measuring snow, this is a measure of no snow:

[HockeyTx82]

When you measure it in your yard lol

Seriously this is gonna be a total nowcast i believe

So if I measure no snow, I still get to use the word snow. Glass half full approach.........

For those not familiar with the technical details of measuring snow, this is a measure of no snow:

https://scontent-dfw5-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/26167933_10156112347602716_5669926451497073416_n.jpg?_nc_cat=106&_nc_ht=scontent-dfw5-1.xx&oh=532c6b5a848993e0842433b20f865c56&oe=5CA91949

Haha, so what is a trace? Need to be at the ready.

That reminds me, I swear one time someone took a picture of "hail" and the news showed it. It was crescent ice cubes from a freezer they threw in the yard. It was when others were submitting pictures during a storm.

[bubba hotep]

12z Euro gets surface temps near freezing in the jackpot zone. A slight shift NE could put near blizzard conditions in DFW with significant accumulationa on bridges and overpasses.

[wxman57]

No more Christmas snow miracle across Texas (even Houston) in the 12Z GFS run...

[HockeyTx82]

No more Christmas snow miracle across Texas (even Houston) in the 12Z GFS run...

Booooooo. Well it was fun while it lasted. Can we filter his negative snow posts automatically?

[Cerlin]

No more Christmas snow miracle across Texas (even Houston) in the 12Z GFS run...

Called it

[wxman57]

No more Christmas snow miracle across Texas (even Houston) in the 12Z GFS run...

Booooooo. Well it was fun while it lasted. Can we filter his negative snow posts automatically?

I've always said here that the one good use of cold air is to produce snow. Otherwise, it might as well be 90 degrees. I like snow but not cold weather. If I believe it's really going to snow then I'll let you know. Otherwise, I prefer to think of myself as the voice of reason in these winter weather events. Now, let's see if I can bring some 90s into Texas for Christmas since it probably won't snow...

[gboudx]

Christmas is still 2 weeks away. There's a lot of model watching to do before then. 1 run of the GFS shouldn't even raise an eyebrow yet.