Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Toadfrog]

My peach trees are blooming like it's mid-March, pine trees are pollinating, Home Depot is selling tomato plants, I love winter, but I think it's done, placing a fork in it.

Walmart put all of their garden plants out here a couple days before we hit 17 F. Needless to say that was a giant waste. Everything up here is still in winter mode, including the Bradford Pears.

I would love to see more winter. I do have a feeling we are not done with it quite yet.

[Brent]

40s and rain on the 18z GFS

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

40s and rain on the 18z GFS

If I were a betting man, I'd be the temps bust low and we see 34 and rain.

[Cpv17]

40s and rain on the 18z GFS

If I were a betting man, I'd be the temps bust low and we see 34 and rain.

That’s a smart money decision right there.

[dhweather]

While we wait, here's a CAT 5 IN THE GULF !!!!

[Tejas89]

In the meantime, the island of Maui has seen snow down to very low elevations (for them) and reaching some state parks. Extremely powerful Kona low also responsible for a 190 mph gust.

https://video.foxnews.com/v/6001230925001/#sp=show-clips

[Brent]

40s and rain on the 18z GFS

If I were a betting man, I'd be the temps bust low and we see 34 and rain.

Right

[orangeblood]

As was the case last week...models are struggling with the southward push/strength of the low-level cold, the Euro in particular - trim those temps 6-8 Deg F and we have a major impact ice/sleet storm for the Northwest 1/2 of the state. Looking at the 500 mb setup, See reason to believe they are overestimating temp profiles...The models trends still look good IMO!

Just go back last week to Arctic Thunder's post on general rules of thumb for southern plains winter weather....1040 crossing Canadian border look for impacts down to I-20, well here you go!!!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2019021212/ecmwf_mslpaNorm_us_8.png

Technically, the high is 1036mb (and quickly weakening) as it crosses the North Dakota border.

Sorry Mr Acosta but this is Fake news! That’s a 1040 MB HP as it crosses the Canadian border and almost every model is showing similar magnitude as it crosses the border.

[gpsnowman]

Mr. Acosta. Good one there. Jim, get out of my presser.
No need to worry about things yet. As mentioned before and as recently as last week, modeled cold(or warmth) this far out is highly questionable. Wxman57 did mention Friday as the day to really get a grasp on the upcoming cold and precip. Up until then model to model run gasping is fruitless. But it sure is fun!!!!! Come on snow!!!!

[Brent]

Let's play a Facebook game. "Only one in 100 meteorologists can spot the anomalous GFS run for next Monday. Are you a genius?"

Ok, let's play another game...Count the number of GFS Ensemble members showing accumulating snow for DFW in the picture ?

http://i68.tinypic.com/2cep5ow.jpg

The gefs is all over the place look at the difference now

[wxman57]

Looks sub-1040mb, to me:

[Brent]

The eps sadly agrees with the basically snowless 18z gefs

[spencer817]

The eps sadly agrees with the basically snowless 18z gefs

https://i.ibb.co/R9c5kJm/download-12.png

I've already moved on to spring!

[bubba hotep]

The eps sadly agrees with the basically snowless 18z gefs

https://i.ibb.co/R9c5kJm/download-12.png

I've already moved on to spring!

Cool and damp with no instability... Then flips to hot dry summer

[Haris]

I am millimeters away from moving to Seattle

[orangeblood]

The eps sadly agrees with the basically snowless 18z gefs

https://i.ibb.co/R9c5kJm/download-12.png

I've already moved on to spring!

Does this make the 5th or 6th time this winter you’ve moved on ?

Team Defeatist are out in full force tonight!!

[spencer817]

The eps sadly agrees with the basically snowless 18z gefs

https://i.ibb.co/R9c5kJm/download-12.png

I've already moved on to spring!

Does this make the 5th or 6th time this winter you’ve moved on ?

Team Defeatist are out in full force tonight!!

ahaha no but im not gonna rely on March to come thru, this winter had way too much hype

[orangeblood]

I've already moved on to spring!

Does this make the 5th or 6th time this winter you’ve moved on ?

Team Defeatist are out in full force tonight!!

ahaha no but im not gonna rely on March to come thru, this winter had way too much hype

And you’re giving up on Feb, on Feb 12? This is the best setup we’ve had all winter but I guess I’ll just chalk it up to Sooner Logic

[Tireman4]

While we wait, here's a CAT 5 IN THE GULF !!!!


https://ocean.si.edu/sites/default/files/styles/photo_full/public/HurricaneKatrinaCroppedNASAPhotobank_2.jpg?itok=-tND3_Bm

Finally some normality this Winter.

[Cerlin]

I still think it looks good for potential winter weather. Just because the models aren’t lining up the cold and precipitation well doesnt mean it’s instantly gonna be over with. All we know is that there will be some kind of cold front that moves in in the next 10 days, most likely over the weekend, and some moisture. Will it line up? No one knows yet. However, the two things the models have been most consistenty wrong with this year has been the timing/strength of cold fronts and the timing/amount of precipitation. So if we’re taking the model’s and ensemble’s runs as straight fact on those characteristics which have proven to be tricky for them, especially 7 days out, then I think we need to be reevaluating our choices.