Texas Winter 2018-2019

[MississippiWx]

Interesting, both the 00z GEFS and Euro EPS move the MJO into P6 but the NAM pattern they produce doesn't match up with what you would expect during +ENSO. A bit odd, esp. with +AAM. Maybe the ensembles will correct towards lower heights in the SW as we move forward in time or maybe the +ENSO low frequency state isn't strong enough to fore onto the large scale pattern? Ultimately, the SSW resulting in a lobe of the TPV being anchored over SE Canada might be crushing the pattern and not allowing for a typical +ENSO progression driven by tropical forcing.

I believe the MJO is in a lower frequency, but the main thing is the effects of the SSW event. I believe it has thrown a wrench into long range forecasting as the top-down warming occurs. The Arctic is going to be blocked for a while creating plenty of winter weather opportunities below.

By the way, the flizzard you guys had yesterday morning made it to us here in South Mississippi late last night. It was great to see snow again!

[hamburgerman7070]

I must say I'm not throwing in the towel yet. Models look a bit better on cold air in extended (yes I know) we shall see.

Htiverajr, I heard the pna may go negative in the future. Will that be good or bad for us? Just curious

[hriverajr]

I must say I'm not throwing in the towel yet. Models look a bit better on cold air in extended (yes I know) we shall see.

Htiverajr, I heard the pna may go negative in the future. Will that be good or bad for us? Just curious

I was never a long range forecaster so I will defer to the experts on here.

[orangeblood]

You could see that the air now over Texas came from the Central Plains. Nothing crossed the Canadian Border with this front. It doesn't take an Arctic front to drop temps into the 20s (or a light freeze in Houston). No new cold air with Wednesday's system, either. Models DO indicate new Canadian air with Friday's front, however (not Arctic, though).

With all due respect, this was no doubt an Arctic Front, you can track it origins over the past week....here is the snapshot from 3 days ago, this HP came straight down from the Arctic circle into Canada and through the Dakotas down into Texas. It wasn't your typically trajectory through Montana though.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2019011706/gfs-ens_mslpaNorm_namer_1.png

HP may have come from their.. Higher pressures translated south. Does not mean the air really did. I'm not sure, but you would have to do an analysis on the the actual movement of those "air parcels" (brain not working well haha)

Definitely disagree with wxman57 on this one...the surface parcels originate from the Arctic and you can clearly see them pulled down by the strong low pressure that moved across yesterday. Just because the magnitude isn't as great or the front doesn't come through Montana as you typically see doesn't mean its not an Arctic Front!

[hriverajr]

With all due respect, this was no doubt an Arctic Front, you can track it origins over the past week....here is the snapshot from 3 days ago, this HP came straight down from the Arctic circle into Canada and through the Dakotas down into Texas. It wasn't your typically trajectory through Montana though.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2019011706/gfs-ens_mslpaNorm_namer_1.png

HP may have come from their.. Higher pressures translated south. Does not mean the air really did. I'm not sure, but you would have to do an analysis on the the actual movement of those "air parcels" (brain not working well haha)

Definitely disagree with wxman57 on this one...the surface parcels originate from the Arctic and you can clearly see them pulled down by the strong low pressure that moved across yesterday. Just because the magnitude isn't as great or the front doesn't come through Montana as you typically see doesn't mean its not an Arctic Front!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2019011918/gfs-ens_T2ma_us_1.png

Those are anomalies
"cP air modifies rapidly as it moves to the South. The dewpoints remain low but the temperature of this airmass increases when moving South" As some were complaining why this arctic front wasn't so cold farther south. No offense, but it was not arctic air anymore... even if it was at one time. and I don't think it was. Arctic air has very low dewpoints as well. I saw none of that.

[Cpv17]

The models are beginning to look a lot more interesting imo. It definitely looks like the PNA might go negative in the LR. Might be able to cash in if it does so on it’s transition to negative while it’s around neutral.

[1900hurricane]

I was going to run a HYSPLIT to find out once and for all where today's air came from, but was thwarted.

[hriverajr]

That would help.. but oh well.

[orangeblood]

HP may have come from their.. Higher pressures translated south. Does not mean the air really did. I'm not sure, but you would have to do an analysis on the the actual movement of those "air parcels" (brain not working well haha)

Definitely disagree with wxman57 on this one...the surface parcels originate from the Arctic and you can clearly see them pulled down by the strong low pressure that moved across yesterday. Just because the magnitude isn't as great or the front doesn't come through Montana as you typically see doesn't mean its not an Arctic Front!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2019011918/gfs-ens_T2ma_us_1.png

Those are anomalies
"cP air modifies rapidly as it moves to the South. The dewpoints remain low but the temperature of this airmass increases when moving South" As some were complaining why this arctic front wasn't so cold farther south. No offense, but it was not arctic air anymore... even if it was at one time. and I don't think it was. Arctic air has very low dewpoints as well. I saw none of that.

Yes, I realize all Arctic Fronts are modified in some form or fashion but the FW NWS office continually repeated this was an Arctic Front and that makes sense...dewpoints were upper teens in my area and single digits in Northern Oklahoma. The reasoning that it wasn't an Arctic Front because it didn't come through Montana doesn't add up to me - the sub-zero dewpoints came through the Dakotas down into the southern plains and following the models over the past week, you can clearly see it originated from the Arctic Circle!! I know you all in Southern Texas didn't feel the brunt of this but folks in DFW can attest, this one packed a punch typical of Arctic Fronts

[dhweather]

the end of the Euro looks like the arctic is headed straight for us with a good snow dropping south from Oklahoma

Unfortunately its the day 10 Euro

If "king" Euro had been right last weekend (merely 7 days), we'd be in the middle of 60+ hours sub-freezing temps right now.

[tolakram]

They make it sound like an accident.

You Texans and your desires for cold air.

Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport (KCVG)
Mostly Cloudy
12°F
-11°C

Humidity 67%
Wind Speed NW 13 mph
Barometer 30.18 in (1023.2 mb)
Dewpoint 3°F (-16°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Wind Chill -3°F (-19°C)
Last update 20 Jan 11:52 am EST

Nice 5 inches of snow last night, looks nice, but too cold to go out.

[Portastorm]

the end of the Euro looks like the arctic is headed straight for us with a good snow dropping south from Oklahoma

Unfortunately its the day 10 Euro

If "king" Euro had been right last weekend (merely 7 days), we'd be in the middle of 60+ hours sub-freezing temps right now.

I usually defer to King Euro for all of my forecast needs ... but I will stand beside our resident skeptic, dhweather, in agreeing that beyond 5 days, especially lately, the Euro's reliability sharply declines.

[dhweather]

Those are anomalies
"cP air modifies rapidly as it moves to the South. The dewpoints remain low but the temperature of this airmass increases when moving South" As some were complaining why this arctic front wasn't so cold farther south. No offense, but it was not arctic air anymore... even if it was at one time. and I don't think it was. Arctic air has very low dewpoints as well. I saw none of that.

True arctic air is so brutally dry, you're not going to get any precip. Those nuclear freezes in the 80's brought true arctic air south, I vividly remember how perfectly blue the skies were, not a hint of any cloud, and how bad the static electricity was, got popped touching any metal. It seemed to take two weeks to get humidity back after those.

[orangeblood]

The models are beginning to look a lot more interesting imo. It definitely looks like the PNA might go negative in the LR. Might be able to cash in if it does so on it’s transition to negative while it’s around neutral.

Yes, they do....the deep trough east of Hawaii is beginning the retrograde west closer to Hawaii, this should allow systems to dig further SW (-PNA). If this can hold, it could increase our chances of more moisture coinciding with the cold air across the Conus!! Really nice looking ensemble mean map for a southern plains winter storm! towards the end of the month!

[Cerlin]

Wow, the 12z FV3 GFS just DROPS the hammer with cold air on the 30th of January. It just drops that arctic airmass straight to Houston. Too bad it’s too far out right now. Also some good trends for DFW snow on both Wednesday (looks to be shifting just slightly west) and the 27th (some snow with some rain in DFW.)

[dhweather]

FWD AFD


Deep upper troughing across the eastern CONUS still looks likely
late this workweek and into the weekend, leaving North and Central
Texas beneath a northwest flow regime. A southeast-moving
disturbance will send a dry cold front through the area Thursday
night. A subtle warm-up ahead of the front can be expected with
Thursday high temperatures reaching the 50s. Friday highs should
remain mainly in the 40s behind the front. Yet another shot of
cold air looks to arrive on Saturday, which may be able to tap
into enough moisture to squeeze out a few showers as the front
pushes through. Otherwise, below normal temperatures and mainly
dry weather still looks like the general plan as we move through
the final week of the month.

[Cpv17]

Wow, the 12z FV3 GFS just DROPS the hammer with cold air on the 30th of January. It just drops that arctic airmass straight to Houston. Too bad it’s too far out right now. Also some good trends for DFW snow on both Wednesday (looks to be shifting just slightly west) and the 27th (some snow with some rain in DFW.)

The 12z FV3 is looking nice. Started trending better yesterday imo. Hopefully the 12z Euro will have a similar setup that it had at 0z. Looking for consistency.

[bubba hotep]

The models are beginning to look a lot more interesting imo. It definitely looks like the PNA might go negative in the LR. Might be able to cash in if it does so on it’s transition to negative while it’s around neutral.

Yes, they do....the deep trough east of Hawaii is beginning the retrograde west closer to Hawaii, this should allow systems to dig further SW (-PNA). If this can hold, it could increase our chances of more moisture coinciding with the cold air across the Conus!! Really nice looking ensemble mean map for a southern plains winter storm! towards the end of the month!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2019012012/gfs-ens_z500a_namer_42.png

We need the Pacific jet to relax and shift equatorward. That would relax the PNA pattern and potentially assist in maintaining a -NAO pattern.

[Cpv17]

Back to back runs of the Euro now are looking good!





This has some potential.

[bubba hotep]

Interesting, both the 00z GEFS and Euro EPS move the MJO into P6 but the NAM pattern they produce doesn't match up with what you would expect during +ENSO. A bit odd, esp. with +AAM. Maybe the ensembles will correct towards lower heights in the SW as we move forward in time or maybe the +ENSO low frequency state isn't strong enough to fore onto the large scale pattern? Ultimately, the SSW resulting in a lobe of the TPV being anchored over SE Canada might be crushing the pattern and not allowing for a typical +ENSO progression driven by tropical forcing.

And the 12z Euro flips to a look that I would expect given the progression across the Pacific. It replaces higher heights in the SW with lower heights. Now to see if the EPS follows.