Texas Winter 2018-2019

[wxman57]

The GEFS is such a joke. Almost every member had snow yesterday

https://i.ibb.co/DWqdZDH/download-24.png

Fortunately, I was able to add nearly 800 ft to the height of my Red River wall in the past 24 hours. The models are taking that into consideration.

Seriously, is it any surprise that the models are once again forecasting lots of snow in the long range only to remove it as the event nears? I know it hasn't happened yet, and I do expect that the models will be too slow and too warm with the shallow cold air, but there may not be much moisture available for any precip.

[Brent]

The GEFS is such a joke. Almost every member had snow yesterday

https://i.ibb.co/DWqdZDH/download-24.png

Fortunately, I was able to add nearly 800 ft to the height of my Red River wall in the past 24 hours. The models are taking that into consideration.

Seriously, is it any surprise that the models are once again forecasting lots of snow in the long range only to remove it as the event nears? I know it hasn't happened yet, and I do expect that the models will be too slow and too warm with the shallow cold air, but there may not be much moisture available for any precip.

I'm not that surprised really, I mean the fact the Euro wasnt onboard was definitely a big reason to not believe and the GEFS has been pulling this stunt all winter where it looks great then poof so no its not really a surprise

[Yukon Cornelius]

Freezing drizzle in WF.

Wichita Falls, the 2019 Freezing Drizzle Capital of Texas

2018-2019 winter capital of Texas

[TheProfessor]

I wouldn't panic yet guys. Euro has me in the Bullseye right now, which means this storm is going either north or south of me. There's also the chance of sheared out storm, but I haven't studied it closely enough to see if that might happen and the model trends over the past few days have been for the opposite to happen(which would make missing this storm painful).

[WacoWx]

WWA for Wichita Falls.

[wxman57]

12Z Euro drops temps to the upper teens in the D-FW area Monday but is quite dry, so no snow. That is looking more likely than a snow event. Cold and dry. Better than cold and rainy, I guess.

[Brent]

12Z Euro drops temps to the upper teens in the D-FW area Monday but is quite dry, so no snow. That is looking more likely than a snow event. Cold and dry. Better than cold and rainy, I guess.

19/34 for DFW Monday would verbatim be record setting... record low is 20 in 2002 record low max is 35 in 1960 so there's that

Also coldest of the entire winter

Monday Night will also be 4 years since DFW saw more than a dusting of snow

[wxman57]

12Z Euro drops temps to the upper teens in the D-FW area Monday but is quite dry, so no snow. That is looking more likely than a snow event. Cold and dry. Better than cold and rainy, I guess.

19/34 for DFW Monday would verbatim be record setting... record low is 20 in 2002 record low max is 35 in 1960 so there's that

Also coldest of the entire winter

Monday Night will also be 4 years since DFW saw more than a dusting of snow

You need to move to Seattle or Houston if you want to see snow.

[Haris]

12Z Euro drops temps to the upper teens in the D-FW area Monday but is quite dry, so no snow. That is looking more likely than a snow event. Cold and dry. Better than cold and rainy, I guess.

19/34 for DFW Monday would verbatim be record setting... record low is 20 in 2002 record low max is 35 in 1960 so there's that

Also coldest of the entire winter

Monday Night will also be 4 years since DFW saw more than a dusting of snow

You need to move to Seattle or Houston if you want to see snow.

Or Vegas or even the LA suburbs

[Brent]

12Z Euro drops temps to the upper teens in the D-FW area Monday but is quite dry, so no snow. That is looking more likely than a snow event. Cold and dry. Better than cold and rainy, I guess.

19/34 for DFW Monday would verbatim be record setting... record low is 20 in 2002 record low max is 35 in 1960 so there's that

Also coldest of the entire winter

Monday Night will also be 4 years since DFW saw more than a dusting of snow

You need to move to Seattle or Houston if you want to see snow.

Last year it was east(my old home in Alabama getting 8 inches) this year it was snowing on the Vegas strip i mean we just cant win

[dhweather]

In 3642 hours, the FVS has a CAT 7 IN THE GULF !!!!!

[weatherdude1108]

Close to 80 degrees right now here. Freezing early next week. Texas roller coaster. Not much precip. My backyard soil is looking dryer for the first time in months. Drizzle/fog in the morning doesn't do much of anything, except create bad drivers and dirty windshields.lol

000
FXUS64 KEWX 272044
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
244 PM CST Wed Feb 27 2019

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...
While the warm front that is hanging around the Texas coast could
spark off a shower or two across the Coastal Plains this afternoon
the big story in the short term will be the front that will arrive
tonight into tomorrow. Models are in fairly good agreement with what
will happen with the front, but in disagreement about the expected
temperatures for tomorrow. All of the models from the short term NAM
to the GFS/ECMWF show the front pushing through the eastern half of
the area (along and east of I-35) but hanging up across the Edwards
Plateau. Behind the front the shallow cold arctic airmass will push
south. This will create a temperature gradient across our area
tomorrow. The NAM is the coldest of all of the models, and by late in
the day does push the front all the way to the Rio Grande while the
other models keep the CWA split. Have gone with a NAM/ECMWF/Short
Term mix to side with the colder NAM, but also moderate it slightly.
Temperatures tomorrow will be very dependent on where the front
pushes through and where it stalls. The front could also spark off a
few showers and an isolated thunderstorm, especially across areas
along and south of the I-10 corridor. Precipitation chances end
Thursday night and with the cooler airmass in place overnight lows
will be in the upper 40s and lower 50s. With respect to the
challenging temperature forecast for tomorrow it is important to note
that while the NAM is the coldest other models continue to trend
colder as well. The 12z GFS is about 8-12 degrees colder for highs
tomorrow than 24 hours ago, and the 12z ECMWF is about 4-8 degrees
colder than its 12z run yesterday.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
The story in the long term will be the return of winter-like
temperatures across South Central Texas. Zonal flow in the mid levels
of the atmosphere will keep the weather for Friday through the middle
of next week rather benign except for a cold front that is expected
some time late Saturday or early Sunday. The ECMWF is currently the
slowest with the front, having it push through South Central Texas
Sunday morning. The GFS has the front arriving Saturday night around
midnight and pushing through in the pre-dawn hours. Models do
continue to trend later with the front. The front will bring another
chance of scattered showers and a few thunderstorms (best chance for
any thunder will be east of I-35) Saturday through Sunday as it
approaches and then moves through the area. This front is the cold
one. The one everyone is talking about. Highs Sunday will be highly
dependent on the progress of the front with the very cold airmass
behind it. A slower front will mean a warmer day for some, a faster
progression and Sunday could be cooler for most. With precipitation
ending the cold and dry airmass settles in Sunday night through with
the first night of freezing temperatures possible across the Hill
Country and Austin Metro area. Another decent freeze is expected
Tuesday morning, with lows bottoming out right around 32 for the Hill
Country Wednesday morning. On the flip side highs on Monday and
Tuesday will also be very chilly (closer to the normal overnight lows
for this time of year). Both days highs will struggle to get out of
the 40s, except for along the Rio Grande where highs will be near 50s
degrees. While the weather remains dry temperatures will begin to
slowly warm as southerly flow returns by Wednesday of next week.

[Yukon Cornelius]

They really dropped the ball on today’s forecast. By 5:00 it was suppose to be near or below freezing. It’s 3:36 and the temp is 26 and still light freezing drizzle. Wind chill of 13.

[Ralph's Weather]

Models have trended weaker with the wave tomorrow so less mid level moisture means less thick clouds which could allow temps to warm into the mid 40s. That is countered by the air behind the front being colder than modeled so maybe highs around 40 are more likely.

[gpsnowman]

Winds are getting stronger out of the north. Temp dropped from 63 to 49 from the time I got to my daughter's school then home.

[gpsnowman]

Man the temps early next week look cold. What a crying shame if we can't even get a flurry or two out of this. Coldest air of the season and we may not score. I am done after this next week. The towel will be thrown. Bring on warm days and plenty of spring storms. I hope to witness some serious thunder and lightning all the way into June.

[Cerlin]

Man the temps early next week look cold. What a crying shame if we can't even get a flurry or two out of this. Coldest air of the season and we may not score. I am done after this next week. The towel will be thrown. Bring on warm days and plenty of spring storms. I hope to witness some serious thunder and lightning all the way into June.

I hope to witness some serious thunder and lightning until next winter.

[dhweather]

Went from 62 to 49 in Heath in an hour. Ouch.

[Cpv17]

Man the temps early next week look cold. What a crying shame if we can't even get a flurry or two out of this. Coldest air of the season and we may not score. I am done after this next week. The towel will be thrown. Bring on warm days and plenty of spring storms. I hope to witness some serious thunder and lightning all the way into June.

Amen to that!!

[Haris]

I'll enjoy next weeks teens and 20s given that it'll be 90F again in no time!

And yes, I hope its an active severe weather season!

I need good shelf clouds and wall clouds!