Texas Winter 2018-2019

[harp]

the end of the Euro looks like the arctic is headed straight for us with a good snow dropping south from Oklahoma

Unfortunately its the day 10 Euro

Euro is king, right?

[Brent]

the end of the Euro looks like the arctic is headed straight for us with a good snow dropping south from Oklahoma

Unfortunately its the day 10 Euro

Euro is king, right?

yes but the LR Euro has left much to be desired sadly

[Cpv17]

the end of the Euro looks like the arctic is headed straight for us with a good snow dropping south from Oklahoma

Unfortunately its the day 10 Euro

Euro is king, right?

yes but the LR Euro has left much to be desired sadly

Bro, 0z models tonight look absolutely phenomenal..best setup I’ve seen for cold and winter weather over the southern plains all season so far. Oh, and did you see the 1054mb high on the 0z Euro building just north of the NW Territories? I’m gonna go to sleep a happy excited man after what I’ve seen on the models tonight. The -PNA and -NAO look locked in to deliver us the goods!

[Brent]

Euro is king, right?

yes but the LR Euro has left much to be desired sadly

Bro, 0z models tonight look absolutely phenomenal..best setup I’ve seen for cold and winter weather over the southern plains all season so far. Oh, and did you see the 1054mb high on the 0z Euro building just north of the NW Territories? I’m gonna go to sleep a happy excited man after what I’ve seen on the models tonight. The -PNA and -NAO look locked in to deliver us the goods!

that's cool and all, but I wanna see some consistency... still worried about the fun going east of us

[Cpv17]

yes but the LR Euro has left much to be desired sadly

Bro, 0z models tonight look absolutely phenomenal..best setup I’ve seen for cold and winter weather over the southern plains all season so far. Oh, and did you see the 1054mb high on the 0z Euro building just north of the NW Territories? I’m gonna go to sleep a happy excited man after what I’ve seen on the models tonight. The -PNA and -NAO look locked in to deliver us the goods!

that's cool and all, but I wanna see some consistency... still worried about the fun going east of us

I am too, but the models tonight went towards something I’ve really yet to see so far this winter..so there’s maybe still some hope lol I’m sure someone else will explain better than I can. Hoping to see some consistency now with this.

[harp]

If the FV3 GFS were to verify, it would cripple the New Orleans metro area.

[Cpv17]

If the FV3 GFS were to verify, it would cripple the New Orleans metro area.

Yep. Has temps in the teens in your area. Ridiculously cold.

[Ralph's Weather]

Euro and its ensembles along with GFS ensembles show light snow from Austin to Texarkarkana wth a few Dallas or Houston members. Amounts are generally a dusting to a couple inches. It's a razor thin line between the good QPF and cold temps so bust potential is high in both directions.

[weatherdude1108]

32 here so far at around 7:30 this morning. Chilliest it has been in a while here.

[Ralph's Weather]

23 here this morning. I believe that is the coldest of the season, from a non "Arctic" front haha. We will have to wait until next week for teens most likely.

[EtoileTX]

24 here just east of Lufkin

[Portastorm]

Outside of the urban core of Austin, many areas showing temperatures below freezing ... upper 20s.

[wxman57]

23 here this morning. I believe that is the coldest of the season, from a non "Arctic" front haha. We will have to wait until next week for teens most likely.

You could see that the air now over Texas came from the Central Plains. Nothing crossed the Canadian Border with this front. It doesn't take an Arctic front to drop temps into the 20s (or a light freeze in Houston). No new cold air with Wednesday's system, either. Models DO indicate new Canadian air with Friday's front, however (not Arctic, though).

[orangeblood]

23 here this morning. I believe that is the coldest of the season, from a non "Arctic" front haha. We will have to wait until next week for teens most likely.

You could see that the air now over Texas came from the Central Plains. Nothing crossed the Canadian Border with this front. It doesn't take an Arctic front to drop temps into the 20s (or a light freeze in Houston). No new cold air with Wednesday's system, either. Models DO indicate new Canadian air with Friday's front, however (not Arctic, though).

With all due respect, this was no doubt an Arctic Front, you can track it origins over the past week....here is the snapshot from 3 days ago, this HP came straight down from the Arctic circle into Canada and through the Dakotas down into Texas. It wasn't your typically trajectory through Montana though.

[wxman57]

That air (and high pressure) in Canada didn't come down the Plains. It tracked east across southern Canada. On Friday, there was no movement of cold air south of Canada (first image below). By Saturday, you could see the northerly flow developing over KS/NE (second image). In past true Arctic fronts, you would have seen bitterly cold air (-20F to -35F) tracking south across Montana. That wasn't the case with this front. We'll probably see a real Arctic front move down before this winter is over.

http://wxman57.com/images/front.JPG

http://wxman57.com/images/source.JPG

[Yukon Cornelius]

22 here this morning with a really heavy frost.

[rwfromkansas]

Got down to 24. Pretty nice hard freeze.

As for models, NO OTHER runs this year have verified with a big arctic blast here.

I am assuming it’s wrong and will go east until we see consistency. Once that happens, this place will rightly get excited!

[hriverajr]

23 here this morning. I believe that is the coldest of the season, from a non "Arctic" front haha. We will have to wait until next week for teens most likely.

You could see that the air now over Texas came from the Central Plains. Nothing crossed the Canadian Border with this front. It doesn't take an Arctic front to drop temps into the 20s (or a light freeze in Houston). No new cold air with Wednesday's system, either. Models DO indicate new Canadian air with Friday's front, however (not Arctic, though).

With all due respect, this was no doubt an Arctic Front, you can track it origins over the past week....here is the snapshot from 3 days ago, this HP came straight down from the Arctic circle into Canada and through the Dakotas down into Texas. It wasn't your typically trajectory through Montana though.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2019011706/gfs-ens_mslpaNorm_namer_1.png

HP may have come from their.. Higher pressures translated south. Does not mean the air really did. I'm not sure, but you would have to do an analysis on the the actual movement of those "air parcels" (brain not working well haha)

[bubba hotep]

Interesting, both the 00z GEFS and Euro EPS move the MJO into P6 but the NAM pattern they produce doesn't match up with what you would expect during +ENSO. A bit odd, esp. with +AAM. Maybe the ensembles will correct towards lower heights in the SW as we move forward in time or maybe the +ENSO low frequency state isn't strong enough to fore onto the large scale pattern? Ultimately, the SSW resulting in a lobe of the TPV being anchored over SE Canada might be crushing the pattern and not allowing for a typical +ENSO progression driven by tropical forcing.

[hriverajr]

I must say I'm not throwing in the towel yet. Models look a bit better on cold air in extended (yes I know) we shall see.