Texas Winter 2018-2019

[bubba hotep]

There is the winter that we've grown to love here in Texas, suppression!

[bubba hotep]

Who is ready for the newest Euro Weeklies, only a bit longer until they start running out into Spring...

[Brent]

Who is ready for the newest Euro Weeklies, only a bit longer until they start running out into Spring...

lol Rick Mitchell did tease that there are "signs of cold" after the 10 day of 50s and 60s

I'll believe it when I see it

[South Texas Storms]

Who is ready for the newest Euro Weeklies, only a bit longer until they start running out into Spring...

Latest Euro Weeklies look pretty good. Below normal temperatures late January through much of February, with the ensemble mean 1 inch snow line down to almost central TX.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

18z GFS brings down big time cold again at the end of the run. Lets see what 0z says.

[bubba hotep]

Who is ready for the newest Euro Weeklies, only a bit longer until they start running out into Spring...

Latest Euro Weeklies look pretty good. Below normal temperatures late January through much of February, with the ensemble mean 1 inch snow line down to almost central TX.

It's impressive how stable the -EPO/-AO/-NAO look is once it gets established. That should allow for numerous winter wx chances across Texas, into the SE and up the EC.

[wxman57]

You can always trust the GFS 360+ hr charts. Of course the "new" GFS has sunny and mild for TX at hr 336...

[hriverajr]

your really enjoying this..hehe.... I will believe it when I see it.. past few winters for the most part have had a dearth of really cold air in canada or at least a mechanism to bring it down for the most part. Correct me if I am wrong.

[Brent]

forget the wall, we need fans blowing from Canada

[Shoshana]

Well that's a Spring Break ruiner right there. Pretty much after Feb 28, the snow and cold can take a hike, please. Then it's time for bluebonnet season.

Bluebonnets have already been spotted, earliest ever!

Bluebonnets??? Where? I tried google searching it and didn't find anything. That would be a first!

Facebook, Texas Wildflower Report group, picture taken NW Austin

[Ntxw]

January SOI is a complete reversal from December. Gaining more confidence wholesale changes coming to North America. Well stated here, cold air is building in Canada with cross-polar flow. Spillage first in the plains and then the east. Actually we are looking at well timed oscillations coming together nearing climatological peak of activity in winter. All of the Ensembles are in good agreement the continent will cool significantly. It's a favorable pattern for strong high pressure domes.

WPO and EPO both now forecast negative, unloading cold air into North America. -AO (SSW) will allow southward progress.

[northjaxpro]

Who is ready for the newest Euro Weeklies, only a bit longer until they start running out into Spring...

Latest Euro Weeklies look pretty good. Below normal temperatures late January through much of February, with the ensemble mean 1 inch snow line down to almost central TX.

It's impressive how stable the -EPO/-AO/-NAO look is once it gets established. That should allow for numerous winter wx chances across Texas, into the SE and up the EC.

Yes. I. agree. I would also include potentially the Gulf Coast as well. The pattern definitely could favor a winter storm to affect many in the South coming up with an active southern stream interacting with all of the arctic air poised to come south in the coming weeks.

[orangeblood]

January SOI is a complete reversal from December. Gaining more confidence wholesale changes coming to North America. Well stated here, cold air is building in Canada with cross-polar flow. Spillage first in the plains and then the east. Actually we are looking at well timed oscillations coming together nearing climatological peak of activity in winter. All of the Ensembles are in good agreement the continent will cool significantly. It's a favorable pattern for strong high pressure domes.

WPO and EPO both now forecast negative, unloading cold air into North America. -AO (SSW) will allow southward progress.

Spot on, the most intriguing part to me is the timing of this pattern change....the maturation of the seasonal jet this time of year could lock in this pattern for several weeks (40-60 days)

[Quixotic]

Only February flip I can think of is 89. That was a Nina year though. Not being a pessimist. Just thinking out loud.

[Quixotic]

Only February flip I can think of is 89. That was a Nina year though. Not being a pessimist. Just thinking out loud.

I will correct myself and call 2015 a flip. That was a nino year.

[Quixotic]

And 2015 had precedent as there were cold outbreaks before we hit the jackpot. If we are looking for late season miracles I would call: 85, 87 (snowstorm in April!), 89 and 15. Two ninos and two Ninas. I’d be a lot more confident this year if we had a breakout or two this winter before now. TBH, I got a 94-95 feel going on. A lot of potential with nothing but 38 degrees and thunderstorms going on.

[dhweather]

Interesting.

[weatherdude1108]

Bluebonnets have already been spotted, earliest ever!

Bluebonnets??? Where? I tried google searching it and didn't find anything. That would be a first!

Facebook, Texas Wildflower Report group, picture taken NW Austin

Just saw that. That's wild! I have seen them in February before, but never seen one in January.

[harp]

Interesting.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019011100/gfs_z500_mslp_nhem_35.png

Can you interpret this please?

[Brent]

Interesting.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019011100/gfs_z500_mslp_nhem_35.png

Can you interpret this please?

taking it at face value just a cold front for most of us, snow is pretty far north