Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Portastorm]

I've been reminded this week what I HATE about this time of year - Juniper/Mountain Cedar. Sinuses went off the rail so I had to get a steroid shot yesterday.

We need to eridicate these freaking things, they are pure evil!

Since most of them are down in Hill Country, my dear friend Portastorm can start but cutting down all of them within a 100 mile radius of his home.

Alright buddy ... I'll get to work on it this weekend!

[gboudx]

I've been reminded this week what I HATE about this time of year - Juniper/Mountain Cedar. Sinuses went off the rail so I had to get a steroid shot yesterday.

We need to eridicate these freaking things, they are pure evil!

Since most of them are down in Hill Country, my dear friend Portastorm can start but cutting down all of them within a 100 mile radius of his home.

Allergy immunotherapy shots are your friend. On year 3 and my allergies have really calmed down.

[Ntxw]

I don't really foresee any arctic outbreaks, they generally don't occur in El Ninos. The Aleutian wave train tends to mix in Pacific air vs a La Nina-neutral base state with ridging there that tends to yield 1050HP+. We haven't seen many of those modeled this year. We'll still likely depend on blocking in the North Atlantic and some over NW North America with more thread the needle storms.

[Lagreeneyes03]

Not much high wind, or rain with this system for southern Tarrant. Yall do know Winter doesn't start till December 21st? right....

As I said yesterday, we are below normal temp wise and above precip wise for December, we can't get be in a better setup, and our bulk of winter weather (90%) is during Jan-Feb.

Our setup might be good, but when "Below Normal" is 36-46 it still doesn't help much.

[JDawg512]

I've said this before but just to remind everyone. Blueberry Ash Juniper is a native species to the Texas Hill Country. It has been here since the Ice Age. Eradicating it would not only destroy the native environment but it would wipe out the food source and habitat for several species some of which like the Golden Cheeked Warbler are endangered. Trust me when I say I feel your pain about allergies because I'm dealing with it too even though according to my allergist, I'm not allergic to it. Tell that to my inflamed sinuses. But it's simply part of life and we deal with it. As an advocate for planting and educating about native species, I felt it was important to chime in at this juncture.

Now returning to weather:

Gonna have to go out and redo some of my Christmas light display since the wind messed it up. Good thing I decided to hold off putting up the blow up decorations.

[weatherdude1108]

I've said this before but just to remind everyone. Blueberry Ash Juniper is a native species to the Texas Hill Country. It has been here since the Ice Age. Eradicating it would not only destroy the native environment but it would wipe out the food source and habitat for several species some of which like the Golden Cheeked Warbler are endangered. Trust me when I say I feel your pain about allergies because I'm dealing with it too even though according to my allergist, I'm not allergic to it. Tell that to my inflamed sinuses. But it's simply part of life and we deal with it. As an advocate for planting and educating about native species, I felt it was important to chime in at this juncture.

Now returning to weather:

Gonna have to go out and redo some of my Christmas light display since the wind messed it up. Good thing I decided to hold off putting up the blow up decorations.

Here's a good resource.

https://www.wildflower.org/plants/resul ... plant=juas

Though a fragrant, evergreen, and picturesque tree, Ashe Juniper pollen, like that of many junipers, is very irritating to people with cedar allergies, so where the tree occurs in large concentrations, as in central Texas, it often becomes hated and targeted for removal, with various, sometimes invented, rationalizations given for doing so. Ashe Juniper is native from southern Missouri south through Oklahoma and then down through central and west Texas to northern Chihuahua. It was abundant in central Texas when the earliest European explorers arrived, having existed in the region at least since the Pleistocene. It is thus an integral part of the native flora.

[orangeblood]

I don't really foresee any arctic outbreaks, they generally don't occur in El Ninos. The Aleutian wave train tends to mix in Pacific air vs a La Nina-neutral base state with ridging there that tends to yield 1050HP+. We haven't seen many of those modeled this year. We'll still likely depend on blocking in the North Atlantic and some over NW North America with more thread the needle storms.

Not so sure about that...if this Major Strat Warm event occurs as forecast, the AO is tanking potentially sending Arctic and Siberian air towards NA!!

[dhweather]

I've said this before but just to remind everyone. Blueberry Ash Juniper is a native species to the Texas Hill Country. It has been here since the Ice Age. Eradicating it would not only destroy the native environment but it would wipe out the food source and habitat for several species some of which like the Golden Cheeked Warbler are endangered. Trust me when I say I feel your pain about allergies because I'm dealing with it too even though according to my allergist, I'm not allergic to it. Tell that to my inflamed sinuses. But it's simply part of life and we deal with it. As an advocate for planting and educating about native species, I felt it was important to chime in at this juncture.

Now returning to weather:

Gonna have to go out and redo some of my Christmas light display since the wind messed it up. Good thing I decided to hold off putting up the blow up decorations.

This is my issue - skins and blood tests say I am not allergic to it. Put me near one and BOOM. The North winds help, as they blow it AWAY from the metroplex.

[dhweather]

Allergy immunotherapy shots are your friend. On year 3 and my allergies have really calmed down.

It's perplexing - skin and blood tests say I am not allergic to them. Get me near them, and you will witness nuclear strength allergy.

[Brent]

no signs of anything interesting through Christmas zzzz

January/February better deliver the long awaited fun

[Cpv17]

no signs of anything interesting through Christmas zzzz

January/February better deliver the long awaited fun

Lol this thread is dead

[BrokenGlass]

no signs of anything interesting through Christmas zzzz

January/February better deliver the long awaited fun

Lol this thread is dead

So is winter.


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[Texas Snowman]

Meteorological winter is 15 days old. And astronomical/calendar winter hasn’t even begun yet. Oh, and this thread already has 62 pages of discussion.

But winter and this thread are already dead?

[wxman57]

It doesn't look like any really cold air across Texas through the end of the month. GFS doesn't even have any 30s in Houston through December. I'm afraid that may change in Jan/Feb...

Heading up to Woodstock, IL shortly (near Chicago). I put "I Got You Babe" on my phone as the alarm. It starts exactly where it did in Groundhog Day, as we're staying at the same bed & breakfast as in the movie. Forecast is for sunny and mid 40s today and Sunday. Warmest weather they've seen in many weeks. Temps fall significantly after I leave there for home Sunday afternoon.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

To be fair, the 6z FV3 brings freezing temps and highs in the 30s/40s the last 3 days of December. The old GFS can’t make up its mind run to run in the extended range.

[bubba hotep]

The models have backed off on the retrograde across the NPAC and are no longer building higher height anomalies into WCAN/Alaska. That really limits the source of our cold air.

48 hrs ago (5 day avg)



00z



This is consistent with the models also stalling the MJO out in P4.



However, this could set up an active svr wx pattern the last week of the month.





Of course everyone remembers this day.

[hamburgerman7070]

Hi bubba. I have two things to ask . First, do you possibly know why the mjo is not forecasted to move very fast through the warm phases? The other thing is if this SSW event happens, how does that work withe mjo going through the warmer phases?

[bubba hotep]

Hi bubba. I have two things to ask . First, do you possibly know why the mjo is not forecasted to move very fast through the warm phases? The other thing is if this SSW event happens, how does that work withe mjo going through the warmer phases?

The MJO "stall" could be artifact of the models and it's a known bias of the models to be too slow moving convection across the Maritime Continent. The current MJO has been on the faster side of what is typically expected, so a stall would certainly break the tendency over the past few months.



Tropical forcing (MJO) place a role in modulating the PSV and one of the ways is by driving heat flux and the models are currently seeing that.



Now beyond that, there is no guarantee of a SSW and the results are uncertain. Maybe some other posters that know more about SSW will chime in.

[bubba hotep]

12z GEFS showing a strong subtropical connection to the wet pattern that it is advertising.

[gatorcane]

FV3 GFS with wintry precip for Dallas in the fantasy range: