Texas Winter 2018-2019
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- TeamPlayersBlue
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Holding out hope for January. Wouldnt hurt to have a bit of a tease on the models though. So when is the SSW going to influence our weather.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
TeamPlayersBlue wrote:Holding out hope for January. Wouldnt hurt to have a bit of a tease on the models though. So when is the SSW going to influence our weather.
Im no expert at these SSW's, but they are hard to forecast. So many moving parts. Definitely no guarantee we get cold from them. Imo, when the teleconnections change dramatically, then we should know that things in atmosphere are changing
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- cctxhurricanewatcher
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Cpv17 wrote:Brent wrote:no signs of anything interesting through Christmas zzzz
January/February better deliver the long awaited fun
Lol this thread is dead
Winter Cancel. That should wake up the models.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
cctxhurricanewatcher wrote:Cpv17 wrote:Brent wrote:no signs of anything interesting through Christmas zzzz
January/February better deliver the long awaited fun
Lol this thread is dead
Winter Cancel. That should wake up the models.
Well to be fair I heard from Larry Cosgrove over a month ago that he didn’t expect winter to really get going till January & normally during weak El Niño’s December is a warm month with January and February being colder than normal.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Good point, I remember reading that as well. For me though it is a psychological issue. Once December passes, one third of winter is done and frustration sets in. Still have all winter for snow so I gotta stay positive!!!!! Our snowy period is later in winter anyway.
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- bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Cpv17 wrote:cctxhurricanewatcher wrote:Cpv17 wrote:
Lol this thread is dead
Winter Cancel. That should wake up the models.
Well to be fair I heard from Larry Cosgrove over a month ago that he didn’t expect winter to really get going till January & normally during weak El Niño’s December is a warm month with January and February being colder than normal.
I posted way back in the Fall thread that a combo of analogs and the emerging background state (at that time) all pointed to a warm and dry December for Texas. The fact that we have seen two winter wx threats to track and two snow events in parts of the state is a huge win.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
bubba hotep wrote:Cpv17 wrote:cctxhurricanewatcher wrote:
Winter Cancel. That should wake up the models.
Well to be fair I heard from Larry Cosgrove over a month ago that he didn’t expect winter to really get going till January & normally during weak El Niño’s December is a warm month with January and February being colder than normal.
I posted way back in the Fall thread that a combo of analogs and the emerging background state (at that time) all pointed to a warm and dry December for Texas. The fact that we have seen two winter wx threats to track and two snow events in parts of the state is a huge win.
I'm just impatient because once again we came up with nothing
Though it is true the best of winter is still ahead but its still frustrating to keep waiting
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#neversummer
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
gpsnowman wrote::uarrow: Good point, I remember reading that as well. For me though it is a psychological issue. Once December passes, one third of winter is done and frustration sets in. Still have all winter for snow so I gotta stay positive!!!!! Our snowy period is later in winter anyway.
Then think of December as Fall. Our best snows come in Feb and early March. December is tough to get snow as the background state has not had time to cool so if there is moisture it is too warm still. If we continue to get strong upper lows though the winter we will soon forget about some near misses.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
the 0z GFS unleashes the arctic just in time for NYE
Only 15 days to go!
Only 15 days to go!
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#neversummer
- TeamPlayersBlue
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
hamburgerman7070 wrote:TeamPlayersBlue wrote:Holding out hope for January. Wouldnt hurt to have a bit of a tease on the models though. So when is the SSW going to influence our weather.
Im no expert at these SSW's, but they are hard to forecast. So many moving parts. Definitely no guarantee we get cold from them. Imo, when the teleconnections change dramatically, then we should know that things in atmosphere are changing
Absolutely. It increases our chances but not 100%.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
What’s the weather for Xmas looking like across the state?
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#neversummer
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Yukon Cornelius wrote:What’s the weather for Xmas looking like across the state?
fairly mild maybe some rain/very weak front as of now. No big storm it appears
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#neversummer
- ThunderSleetDreams
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Yukon Cornelius wrote:What’s the weather for Xmas looking like across the state?
60s and maybe rainy.
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#NeverSummer
I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!
I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
ThunderSleetDreams wrote:Yukon Cornelius wrote:What’s the weather for Xmas looking like across the state?
60s and maybe rainy.
Yay
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#neversummer
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Brent wrote:Yukon Cornelius wrote:What’s the weather for Xmas looking like across the state?
fairly mild maybe some rain/very weak front as of now. No big storm it appears
Imagine that..
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#neversummer
- bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Models still look to turn wet for Texas as we head into Christmas and after but cold air is very questionable.
All models showing a big storm digging into the SW:
FV3
Euro
GFS
Beyond that, Euro EPS continues to show lower heights across Alaska and the GEFS is similar but not as extensive. The end result is that both show some seasonal cool air but no cold air looks to be found as we move into the New Year.
All models showing a big storm digging into the SW:
FV3
Euro
GFS
Beyond that, Euro EPS continues to show lower heights across Alaska and the GEFS is similar but not as extensive. The end result is that both show some seasonal cool air but no cold air looks to be found as we move into the New Year.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
- bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
More smoke around the upcoming wet pattern
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
gpsnowman wrote::uarrow: Good point, I remember reading that as well. For me though it is a psychological issue. Once December passes, one third of winter is done and frustration sets in. Still have all winter for snow so I gotta stay positive!!!!! Our snowy period is later in winter anyway.
In TX I don’t consider Dec. 1 winter. I prefer the non-meteorological season for winter.
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- bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
DFW still needs about 2/3" over these last two weeks to get into 2nd place all time.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
If there’s such a wet pattern coming up then how come it’s not showing up on the models?
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