Texas Winter 2018-2019

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Holding out hope for January. Wouldnt hurt to have a bit of a tease on the models though. So when is the SSW going to influence our weather.

[hamburgerman7070]

Holding out hope for January. Wouldnt hurt to have a bit of a tease on the models though. So when is the SSW going to influence our weather.

Im no expert at these SSW's, but they are hard to forecast. So many moving parts. Definitely no guarantee we get cold from them. Imo, when the teleconnections change dramatically, then we should know that things in atmosphere are changing

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

no signs of anything interesting through Christmas zzzz

January/February better deliver the long awaited fun

Lol this thread is dead

Winter Cancel. That should wake up the models.

[Cpv17]

no signs of anything interesting through Christmas zzzz

January/February better deliver the long awaited fun

Lol this thread is dead

Winter Cancel. That should wake up the models.

Well to be fair I heard from Larry Cosgrove over a month ago that he didn’t expect winter to really get going till January & normally during weak El Niño’s December is a warm month with January and February being colder than normal.

[gpsnowman]

Good point, I remember reading that as well. For me though it is a psychological issue. Once December passes, one third of winter is done and frustration sets in. Still have all winter for snow so I gotta stay positive!!!!! Our snowy period is later in winter anyway.

[bubba hotep]

Lol this thread is dead

Winter Cancel. That should wake up the models.

Well to be fair I heard from Larry Cosgrove over a month ago that he didn’t expect winter to really get going till January & normally during weak El Niño’s December is a warm month with January and February being colder than normal.

I posted way back in the Fall thread that a combo of analogs and the emerging background state (at that time) all pointed to a warm and dry December for Texas. The fact that we have seen two winter wx threats to track and two snow events in parts of the state is a huge win.

[Brent]

Winter Cancel. That should wake up the models.

Well to be fair I heard from Larry Cosgrove over a month ago that he didn’t expect winter to really get going till January & normally during weak El Niño’s December is a warm month with January and February being colder than normal.

I posted way back in the Fall thread that a combo of analogs and the emerging background state (at that time) all pointed to a warm and dry December for Texas. The fact that we have seen two winter wx threats to track and two snow events in parts of the state is a huge win.

I'm just impatient because once again we came up with nothing

Though it is true the best of winter is still ahead but its still frustrating to keep waiting

[Ralph's Weather]

:uarrow: Good point, I remember reading that as well. For me though it is a psychological issue. Once December passes, one third of winter is done and frustration sets in. Still have all winter for snow so I gotta stay positive!!!!! Our snowy period is later in winter anyway.

Then think of December as Fall. Our best snows come in Feb and early March. December is tough to get snow as the background state has not had time to cool so if there is moisture it is too warm still. If we continue to get strong upper lows though the winter we will soon forget about some near misses.

[Brent]

the 0z GFS unleashes the arctic just in time for NYE

Only 15 days to go!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Holding out hope for January. Wouldnt hurt to have a bit of a tease on the models though. So when is the SSW going to influence our weather.

Im no expert at these SSW's, but they are hard to forecast. So many moving parts. Definitely no guarantee we get cold from them. Imo, when the teleconnections change dramatically, then we should know that things in atmosphere are changing

Absolutely. It increases our chances but not 100%.

[Yukon Cornelius]

What’s the weather for Xmas looking like across the state?

[Brent]

What’s the weather for Xmas looking like across the state?

fairly mild maybe some rain/very weak front as of now. No big storm it appears

[ThunderSleetDreams]

What’s the weather for Xmas looking like across the state?

60s and maybe rainy.

[Yukon Cornelius]

What’s the weather for Xmas looking like across the state?

60s and maybe rainy.

Yay

[Yukon Cornelius]

What’s the weather for Xmas looking like across the state?

fairly mild maybe some rain/very weak front as of now. No big storm it appears

Imagine that..

[bubba hotep]

Models still look to turn wet for Texas as we head into Christmas and after but cold air is very questionable.

All models showing a big storm digging into the SW:

FV3



Euro



GFS



Beyond that, Euro EPS continues to show lower heights across Alaska and the GEFS is similar but not as extensive. The end result is that both show some seasonal cool air but no cold air looks to be found as we move into the New Year.

[bubba hotep]

More smoke around the upcoming wet pattern

[rwfromkansas]

:uarrow: Good point, I remember reading that as well. For me though it is a psychological issue. Once December passes, one third of winter is done and frustration sets in. Still have all winter for snow so I gotta stay positive!!!!! Our snowy period is later in winter anyway.

In TX I don’t consider Dec. 1 winter. I prefer the non-meteorological season for winter.

[bubba hotep]

DFW still needs about 2/3" over these last two weeks to get into 2nd place all time.

[Cpv17]

If there’s such a wet pattern coming up then how come it’s not showing up on the models?