Texas Winter 2018-2019

[hamburgerman7070]

Bubba, it looks like the mjo is on the move this time and should allow the op and ensembles to respond accordingly. I still think its beginning of January before we get colder.

[bubba hotep]

If there’s such a wet pattern coming up then how come it’s not showing up on the models?

It's showing up in the ensembles.

[bubba hotep]

Cool blog post on the recent storm. Crazy how isolated the heavy snow was! http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/archives/31077



The little white patch is a very localized are of heavy snow with totals of 8"

[ThunderSleetDreams]

GFS op picking up on a very wet and chilly end to the year and a very chilly start to 2019.

[Brent]

Christmas looking like could be the warmest day of the next 10 days and pretty unsettled

If it makes yall feel better most of the country is looking torchy for Christmas. Hopefully this pattern change around New Years has legs

[orangeblood]

Looking at the longer term...During a Modoki type El Nino if we can keep the MJO amplified, history is very favorable for cold/stormy across most of the US. Phase 4 is one of the only warm MJO phases for the southern plains during this type of an El Nino and coincidentally is exactly what we're moving through currently/matches up with the next week. Once we get past this phase, Phase 5-6-7-8 looks really promising moving forward

[CaptinCrunch]

Enjoy this week before Christmas, high's across NTX will range from 59-64, lows 40-45 with a slight chance of showers Tuesday night, and another chance Christmas Day.

2019 will start off chilly and as Orangeblood has posted above we will be moving back to colder phases and a more unsettled weather patteren.

[nathanc1969]

I put all my eggs in Larry Crosgrove's basket. He is predicting a cold stormy January and when he mentions siberia and vortex in his newsletters, I get excited!

[SoupBone]

The extended forecast for SE Texas shows a high of 59.

I need it at least 10 degrees colder!

Just remember, the period we're in was supposed to be above normal temperatures with no chance of winter weather. Even if this doesn't deliver snow for NTX, this is a lot more tolerable than projections from a week or two ago seemed to suggest. A lot could change between now and Christmas, or New Years or whatever timeframe you want to use. But as wxman57 said earlier, its not even winter yet. We have a looong way to go to see real winter weather.

100% agreed, really foolish to look beyond 7-10 days and have any clue

Foolish? You realize my post was tongue in cheek, right? I'm a cold weather guy, and a high of 60 for Christmas isn't cold for me. This is all light hearted in nature, no need to be insulting in a Winter weather thread. For a moment, I thought I was in the hurricane thread.

[cheezyWXguy]

Just remember, the period we're in was supposed to be above normal temperatures with no chance of winter weather. Even if this doesn't deliver snow for NTX, this is a lot more tolerable than projections from a week or two ago seemed to suggest. A lot could change between now and Christmas, or New Years or whatever timeframe you want to use. But as wxman57 said earlier, its not even winter yet. We have a looong way to go to see real winter weather.

100% agreed, really foolish to look beyond 7-10 days and have any clue

Foolish? You realize my post was tongue in cheek, right? I'm a cold weather guy, and a high of 60 for Christmas isn't cold for me. This is all light hearted in nature, no need to be insulting in a Winter weather thread. For a moment, I thought I was in the hurricane thread.

I don't think he was talking about you specifically, I think he was speaking generally. Pretty much anything on the models beyond 7-10 days is going to be for entertainment or speculation purposes only, with the exception of some vague pattern indications.

[orangeblood]

Just remember, the period we're in was supposed to be above normal temperatures with no chance of winter weather. Even if this doesn't deliver snow for NTX, this is a lot more tolerable than projections from a week or two ago seemed to suggest. A lot could change between now and Christmas, or New Years or whatever timeframe you want to use. But as wxman57 said earlier, its not even winter yet. We have a looong way to go to see real winter weather.

100% agreed, really foolish to look beyond 7-10 days and have any clue

Foolish? You realize my post was tongue in cheek, right? I'm a cold weather guy, and a high of 60 for Christmas isn't cold for me. This is all light hearted in nature, no need to be insulting in a Winter weather thread. For a moment, I thought I was in the hurricane thread.

I apologize, didn't mean it to come across that way and wasn't directed at you...it was more of a reminder to myself, been burned more often than not looking beyond 240 hrs for specifics

[Snowflake7]

I hope everyone had a great weekend! Monday rears its ugly head again and still no snow. No surprise there though. We have a really wet future coming up. I still think a kayak is in order LOL

[SoupBone]

100% agreed, really foolish to look beyond 7-10 days and have any clue

Foolish? You realize my post was tongue in cheek, right? I'm a cold weather guy, and a high of 60 for Christmas isn't cold for me. This is all light hearted in nature, no need to be insulting in a Winter weather thread. For a moment, I thought I was in the hurricane thread.

I apologize, didn't mean it to come across that way and wasn't directed at you...it was more of a reminder to myself, been burned more often than not looking beyond 240 hrs for specifics

I'm gonna blame wxman57. He brings the heat in these threads. They don't call him the churn-and-burninator for nothing.

[hamburgerman7070]

Orangeblood, If 5,6,7, and 8 are colder stormier phases, then why arent the models and ensembles adjusting? Is it a gradual process? What about phases 1,2, and 3?

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Orangeblood, If 5,6,7, and 8 are colder stormier phases, then why arent the models and ensembles adjusting? Is it a gradual process? What about phases 1,2, and 3?

Pretty much 5,6,7,8,1,2 would give us active and cooler weather during a pattern like this.

I'd argue that the models are adjusting. It starts to cool back off, and the weeklies show an active and cool pattern. I think the old GFS is out to lunch. It is very different than the FV3.

It's hard to pick up on the Euro because it only goes out 240 as does the CMC. The time frame I'm targeting is New Years weekend for the beginning of the pattern change. The long range output is really struggling with that right now.

For example, I keep looking at the upper air pattern, and it keeps jumping around in the NPAC and in the Atlantic.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Here's a great example of how far off the FV3 and GFS are at the moment... Look at their 2m temp out put on Christmas Day







If you look deeper into that week the spread is still there. I'm curious to see the Euro shortly. The MJO is back on the move.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

There's a 25-35 degree difference between the FV3 and old GFS late next week through new years.

JUUUUUST A BIT DIFFERENT

[Cpv17]

Looks like the Euro is picking up on the upcoming wet pattern now. Day 10 on the 12z Euro looks promising!

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Extended range differences (500mb setup)

[Toadfrog]

I haven't posted in a couple of years, but it's great to be back on reading the Tx Winter Weather board. Generally speaking, I was impressed by the cold snap in early November and was thinking record cold for most of the season. Though I'm hearing of no arctic outbreaks in the near future, I'm still pleased with the overall trend being cooler the last several weeks. Still holding out for a solid Omega arctic surge over running moisture from the Pacific resulting in a significant winter event before the seasons end. ....that's all I want for Christmas.