Texas Winter 2018-2019

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OKMet83
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#121 Postby OKMet83 » Wed Oct 17, 2018 7:02 pm

I don't know Ntxw personally but he knows his stuff I have read much of the stuff you have posted and I fully agree with you sir! A lot of moving parts still but this is the kind of winter you can get BIG Snow AND *OR* Ice events... Rest of Oct into AT LEAST mid Nov looks rather calm but we *could* see trouble start to brew in the last days of Nov and Dec looks straight up active. Very fun times coming down the pike! :)
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#122 Postby hamburgerman7070 » Wed Oct 17, 2018 7:14 pm

OKMet83 wrote:I don't know Ntxw personally but he knows his stuff I have read much of the stuff you have posted and I fully agree with you sir! A lot of moving parts still but this is the kind of winter you can get BIG Snow AND *OR* Ice events... Rest of Oct into AT LEAST mid Nov looks rather calm but we *could* see trouble start to brew in the last days of Nov and Dec looks straight up active. Very fun times coming down the pike! :)

Okmet83, Do you know that much about the qbo?
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#123 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Wed Oct 17, 2018 11:30 pm

I said it earlier in the thread. This winter has basically everything we could ask for at one time for winter weather.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#124 Postby NotSparta » Thu Oct 18, 2018 6:59 am

Not sure 2009-10 is a good analog anymore. It was apparent how weak the PV was going to be, and that there would be some major blocking. Now, not so much. The 10mb temperatures are actually quite a bit cooler than normal (though it's early), suggesting a winter with less blocking than even 2017-18. However, given the ENSO state, and assuming the sun stays inactive, odds are more for a weaker vortex

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#125 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 18, 2018 10:09 am

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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#126 Postby rwfromkansas » Thu Oct 18, 2018 5:27 pm

The NOAA outlook is worrisome. But, it ignores El Ninos after two La Ninas.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#127 Postby CaptinCrunch » Thu Oct 18, 2018 6:12 pm

I pretty much toss out NOAA and the CPC seasonal forecast. Both have been inconsistent over the years. Example just Google the 2015-2016 winter outlook. That winter made top 3 warmest driest on record for Texas. They assumed super El Nino would act as any other El Nino, boy were they wrong on that one.

El Nino and La Nina plays more into whether we see more or less precipitation during the season than they do for over all temperatures.

There are many factors that play a row in how our winters pan out, many of which change throughout the season. So many moving parts it's hard to keep up with.

Analogs are a nice guideline or reference to a similar event, that's why you see 2009-2010 come up. It was a weak/Moderate El Nino, followed back to back Nina's, and came during the peak of Solar minimal, but that's about it.

63-64 has more of a atmospheric match, with weather patterns and transitions. That winter ranks in the top 3 coldest for NTX, but only averaged normal precip.

Just watched good old Delkus chime in his 2 cents for this winter in comparison to NOAA's. Looking at the 9 wettest Falls on record and the Winter following 7 had below average snowfall, 2 was above average, 09-10 being 1 of them. His November outlook was pretty much a DUH, much above average precipitation, much below average temperatures.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#128 Postby Ntxw » Thu Oct 18, 2018 7:31 pm

NOAA's outlooks basically just mimics what the IRI/Columbia University puts out. They are always in a general sense above normal for just about every season for various places, in a warming world modeled. That's not very good at pinpointing anomalous cold. But it's frequently right when winters are above normal :lol:.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#129 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Fri Oct 19, 2018 8:11 am

Ntxw wrote:NOAA's outlooks basically just mimics what the IRI/Columbia University puts out. They are always in a general sense above normal for just about every season for various places, in a warming world modeled. That's not very good at pinpointing anomalous cold. But it's frequently right when winters are above normal :lol:.


Was about to post this almost verbatim... :D
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#130 Postby OKMet83 » Fri Oct 19, 2018 7:29 pm

12z CFS looks VERY promising so does the new weeklies.. CFS shows multiple shots of ARCTIC AIR around the 7th-8th of Nov and again about the 19-20th with Ice/Snow nearby on both occasions... We all know 400-700 hours out is a lifetime in forecasting and it will change but it's a trend to watch and see if other runs continue with this trend..
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#131 Postby SoupBone » Sat Oct 20, 2018 11:26 am

So how does the NOAA outlook fly in the face of everything we've been talking about?
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#132 Postby Cpv17 » Sat Oct 20, 2018 4:18 pm

I’m tired of these winter forecasters having such an east coast bias every single year. It seems like just about every year a winter forecast comes out they hammer the east coast.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#133 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Sun Oct 21, 2018 3:46 pm

Image

This would be a great setup for January/February!
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#134 Postby Snowflake7 » Mon Oct 22, 2018 12:56 pm

Feels amazing here in Euless today without all the rain. Looks like its not going to last long with whats brewing up down south. Maybe I should invest in a kayak :ggreen:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#135 Postby Brent » Mon Oct 22, 2018 10:40 pm

Snowflake7 wrote:Feels amazing here in Euless today without all the rain. Looks like its not going to last long with whats brewing up down south. Maybe I should invest in a kayak :ggreen:


Good news is it looks like it'll be a progressive system so should be another nice weekend coming. I have really been enjoying the break that's for sure
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#136 Postby Portastorm » Tue Oct 23, 2018 4:28 pm

I'll just leave these here for everyone to discuss ... :wink:

Image

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#137 Postby Ntxw » Tue Oct 23, 2018 7:34 pm

I've been watching the North Pacific warmth anomaly. It's definitely an intriguing player we have not seen since 2013-2014 and 2014-2015.

If this weak-mod Nino gets a -AO to go with it boy will it be a noteworthy winter. The pre-dating signals for this winter is the best it has been in years. If it turns out to be a dud then you know there has been a serious climate shift to really through it off.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#138 Postby hamburgerman7070 » Tue Oct 23, 2018 9:29 pm

Ntxw wrote:I've been watching the North Pacific warmth anomaly. It's definitely an intriguing player we have not seen since 2013-2014 and 2014-2015.

If this weak-mod Nino gets a -AO to go with it boy will it be a noteworthy winter. The pre-dating signals for this winter is the best it has been in years. If it turns out to be a dud then you know there has been a serious climate shift to really through it off.


Ntxw, there are alot of forecasters saying we will have ao and nao positive due to the qbo shifting phases soon, and that's why i think the Pacific side will get us cold most likely. What is your best analog? I think 2009-10 is off the table and also 2002-03, just due to the qbo shift
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#139 Postby Ntxw » Tue Oct 23, 2018 10:40 pm

hamburgerman7070 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:I've been watching the North Pacific warmth anomaly. It's definitely an intriguing player we have not seen since 2013-2014 and 2014-2015.

If this weak-mod Nino gets a -AO to go with it boy will it be a noteworthy winter. The pre-dating signals for this winter is the best it has been in years. If it turns out to be a dud then you know there has been a serious climate shift to really through it off.


Ntxw, there are alot of forecasters saying we will have ao and nao positive due to the qbo shifting phases soon, and that's why i think the Pacific side will get us cold most likely. What is your best analog? I think 2009-10 is off the table and also 2002-03, just due to the qbo shift


Well going into 2009 (after 2007 and 2008) one wouldn't have guessed a severe -AO/NAO was on the way either. Everything is 20/20 hindsight. Not too familiar with the qbo and it's relationship, I've seen and read a lot of conflicting information. The QBO seems to me to be an index people have flexed it to fit the narrative they want to display. Like solar it tends to have a much broader means and more difficult, vs narrow to this happens; x will happen. That's just my take for that.

We can make do with a good Pacific + -AO, especially since we have a weak-moderate El Nino. It would be nice to get a -EPO shots with a subtropical jet meandering. A pseudo Hudson Bay block works too, get a ridge to ride over from western Canada.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#140 Postby Snowflake7 » Wed Oct 24, 2018 11:21 am

Brent wrote:
Snowflake7 wrote:Feels amazing here in Euless today without all the rain. Looks like its not going to last long with whats brewing up down south. Maybe I should invest in a kayak :ggreen:


Good news is it looks like it'll be a progressive system so should be another nice weekend coming. I have really been enjoying the break that's for sure


With the way everything is setting up, we might actually have a real winter. ( by that I mean snow LOL) 03-04 and 10-11 had a great outcome for snow and it looks as though this might actually end up the same. Who knows though, warm air could come out of the blue and ruin it LOL (I hope not!)
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