Texas Winter 2018-2019

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orangeblood
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2761 Postby orangeblood » Fri Jan 11, 2019 12:59 pm

bubba hotep wrote:One of the things to watch closely, is where does the high lat blocking setup? The Pacific evolution certainly favors split flow in the longer range but if we get a -EPO/+PNA then we will get stuck in the dreaded NW Flow and that is what the 00z GEFS is showing. Based on the Pacific, I think something like late Feb into early March '15 is in the cards but we need the ridging to setup with more of a relaxed PNA look. Also, we need the PVL to stay up in Canada, if it sets up shop farther south towards the GL then it will be very hard for systems to amp up as they come out of the SW. There are a lot of moving parts but I didn't really like the 00z GEFS look, dry cold sucks.



I'll take my chances with that set up any day....have to have Pacific energy come in from somewhere and through the Alaskan gates is ideal, cold enough S/W and if it digs we're in business
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2762 Postby bubba hotep » Fri Jan 11, 2019 1:01 pm

bubba hotep wrote:One of the things to watch closely, is where does the high lat blocking setup? The Pacific evolution certainly favors split flow in the longer range but if we get a -EPO/+PNA then we will get stuck in the dreaded NW Flow and that is what the 00z GEFS is showing. Based on the Pacific, I think something like late Feb into early March '15 is in the cards but we need the ridging to setup with more of a relaxed PNA look. Also, we need the PVL to stay up in Canada, if it sets up shop farther south towards the GL then it will be very hard for systems to amp up as they come out of the SW. There are a lot of moving parts but I didn't really like the 00z GEFS look, dry cold sucks.

https://i.ibb.co/yVZfxm0/gfs-ens-z500a-Mean-namer-12.png


12z GEFS comes in more relaxed out west in the long range, multiple winter wx chances incoming?

Image
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2763 Postby gpsnowman » Fri Jan 11, 2019 1:02 pm

bubba hotep wrote:Once the GEFS opens the gates, they might not close!

https://i.ibb.co/3YvX85f/gfs-ens-T850a-namer-fh180-384.gif

That is quite an impressive stretch. Looks like one front after another. More importantly this is starting to show up within the 10 day frame. Getting pumped!!!! :cold: :cold: :cold:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2764 Postby bubba hotep » Fri Jan 11, 2019 1:11 pm

bubba hotep wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:One of the things to watch closely, is where does the high lat blocking setup? The Pacific evolution certainly favors split flow in the longer range but if we get a -EPO/+PNA then we will get stuck in the dreaded NW Flow and that is what the 00z GEFS is showing. Based on the Pacific, I think something like late Feb into early March '15 is in the cards but we need the ridging to setup with more of a relaxed PNA look. Also, we need the PVL to stay up in Canada, if it sets up shop farther south towards the GL then it will be very hard for systems to amp up as they come out of the SW. There are a lot of moving parts but I didn't really like the 00z GEFS look, dry cold sucks.

https://i.ibb.co/yVZfxm0/gfs-ens-z500a-Mean-namer-12.png


12z GEFS comes in more relaxed out west in the long range, multiple winter wx chances incoming?

https://i.ibb.co/WGtxTHn/gfs-ens-z500a-Mean-namer-12z11119.png


Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2765 Postby gpsnowman » Fri Jan 11, 2019 1:14 pm

:uarrow: The snowpack north of us looks solid. Less modified air hopefully. St. Louis gets hammered on that map.
Last edited by gpsnowman on Fri Jan 11, 2019 1:18 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2766 Postby Brent » Fri Jan 11, 2019 1:17 pm

bubba hotep wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:One of the things to watch closely, is where does the high lat blocking setup? The Pacific evolution certainly favors split flow in the longer range but if we get a -EPO/+PNA then we will get stuck in the dreaded NW Flow and that is what the 00z GEFS is showing. Based on the Pacific, I think something like late Feb into early March '15 is in the cards but we need the ridging to setup with more of a relaxed PNA look. Also, we need the PVL to stay up in Canada, if it sets up shop farther south towards the GL then it will be very hard for systems to amp up as they come out of the SW. There are a lot of moving parts but I didn't really like the 00z GEFS look, dry cold sucks.

https://i.ibb.co/yVZfxm0/gfs-ens-z500a-Mean-namer-12.png


12z GEFS comes in more relaxed out west in the long range, multiple winter wx chances incoming?

https://i.ibb.co/WGtxTHn/gfs-ens-z500a-Mean-namer-12z11119.png


https://i.ibb.co/jVx1Rcx/gefs-snow-mean-tx-65.png


that's a beauty

Maybe all this waiting is gonna pay off :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2767 Postby spencer817 » Fri Jan 11, 2019 1:34 pm

bubba hotep wrote:Once the GEFS opens the gates, they might not close!

https://i.ibb.co/3YvX85f/gfs-ens-T850a-namer-fh180-384.gif

End of FV3 has 2 TX snow storms...we'll see, but it sure likes cold :lol: :cold:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2768 Postby wxman57 » Fri Jan 11, 2019 1:42 pm

spencer817 wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:Once the GEFS opens the gates, they might not close!

https://i.ibb.co/3YvX85f/gfs-ens-T850a-namer-fh180-384.gif

End of FV3 has 2 TX snow storms...we'll see, but it sure likes cold :lol: :cold:


We have a client near Chicago that is concerned about below-zero temps. On the same dates, the GFS has them at 28F while the FV3-GFS has them at -26F. Hmmm....
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2769 Postby spencer817 » Fri Jan 11, 2019 1:50 pm

e14 puts 3+ ft over DFW :oops: if only...
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2770 Postby harp » Fri Jan 11, 2019 1:53 pm

The 12Z FV3 GFS dumps a motherload of cold south WITH precip. I know it's far out and will change, but I like the trend. Both Texas AND myself here in Louisiana get in on the fun.
Last edited by harp on Fri Jan 11, 2019 2:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2771 Postby Portastorm » Fri Jan 11, 2019 2:03 pm

Just looked over the latest Euro weeklies. For Texas in about a 5-week period from late January through February ... they look cold to very cold. Precip seems relatively close to normal for most places with a few weeks here and there of above/below.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2772 Postby orangeblood » Fri Jan 11, 2019 2:13 pm

Portastorm wrote:Just looked over the latest Euro weeklies. For Texas in about a 5-week period from late January through February ... they look cold to very cold. Precip seems relatively close to normal for most places with a few weeks here and there of above/below.


CFSV2 Long Range is now on board the Arctic Train for the lower 48 as well (has been the slowest to catch on)...that makes 100% of all long-range guidance with below normal temps moving forward!!
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2773 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jan 11, 2019 2:21 pm

That's the risk of having the coldest air so close! -50s in Canada on the FV3, GFS is a much milder -30s and -40s.

You just know suppression is on the minds of many. Nothing like snow on the coast and 25F and Sunny blue skies up north :lol: .
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2774 Postby Brent » Fri Jan 11, 2019 2:23 pm

The end of the euro has lows around 20 in the metro :cold:
Last edited by Brent on Fri Jan 11, 2019 2:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2775 Postby MississippiWx » Fri Jan 11, 2019 2:23 pm

The ensembles have been very consistent about the Arctic dam (wxman wall) breaking. The operational runs will be inconsistent, as always, so take them with a grain of salt. The ensembles show that the rest of winter could be brutally cold.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2776 Postby orangeblood » Fri Jan 11, 2019 2:25 pm

Ntxw wrote:That's the risk of having the coldest air so close! -50s in Canada on the FV3, GFS is a much milder -30s and -40s.

You just know suppression is on the minds of many. Nothing like snow on the coast and 25F and Sunny blue skies up north :lol: .


Yeah, I don't think most realize that seeing those type cold anomalies in Canada DURING the coldest time of year is close to extreme as you get!!!
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2777 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jan 11, 2019 2:27 pm

orangeblood wrote:
Ntxw wrote:That's the risk of having the coldest air so close! -50s in Canada on the FV3, GFS is a much milder -30s and -40s.

You just know suppression is on the minds of many. Nothing like snow on the coast and 25F and Sunny blue skies up north :lol: .


Yeah, I don't think most realize that seeing those type cold anomalies in Canada DURING the coldest time of year is close to extreme as you get!!!


Unlike the past 2 years we have a good subtropical jet and split flow. My bet is that it won't be cold and dry. We'll likely have multiple disturbances to go about it. This passing SSW is the real deal. We haven't seen one dump cold on our side of the world in awhile.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2778 Postby TheProfessor » Fri Jan 11, 2019 2:28 pm

It's looking like I will get 3-6" of snow tomorrow. If we hit the high end of 6" it will be the biggest snowfall I've had in Columbus. Now I know all of yall are starving for snow, but man the fact I haven't had a storm drop 6+"(and there's only been 3 storms to drop 4-5") of snow the last 4 years annoys me a bit lol. Crossing my fingers we all get what we want this winter lol.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2779 Postby hriverajr » Fri Jan 11, 2019 2:29 pm

Ntxw wrote:That's the risk of having the coldest air so close! -50s in Canada on the FV3, GFS is a much milder -30s and -40s.

You just know suppression is on the minds of many. Nothing like snow on the coast and 25F and Sunny blue skies up north :lol: .


that would be perfect for me :p I can go visit my mom
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2780 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jan 11, 2019 2:30 pm

GEFS 12z. Plenty of cold air descending on North America. All the way to Panama.

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