Texas Winter 2018-2019

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Cpv17
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2781 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Jan 11, 2019 2:31 pm

1079mb high in Greenland on the 12z FV3 lol I honestly don’t think I’ve ever seen a high forecasted that strong ever since I’ve been following the models the past few years. This is now the second time in the past 3 days the FV3 has gone bonkers with blocking up north.
Last edited by Cpv17 on Fri Jan 11, 2019 2:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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rwfromkansas
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2782 Postby rwfromkansas » Fri Jan 11, 2019 2:32 pm

TheProfessor wrote:It's looking like I will get 3-6" of snow tomorrow. If we hit the high end of 6" it will be the biggest snowfall I've had in Columbus. Now I know all of yall are starving for snow, but man the fact I haven't had a storm drop 6+"(and there's only been 3 storms to drop 4-5") of snow the last 4 years annoys me a bit lol. Crossing my fingers we all get what we want this winter lol.


That's crazy. I would be annoyed in your position as well being that far north and having that crappy a history.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2783 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jan 11, 2019 2:46 pm

Cpv17 wrote:1079mb high in Greenland on the 12z FV3 lol I honestly don’t think I’ve ever seen a high forecasted that strong ever since I’ve been following the models the past few years. This is now the second time in the past 3 days the FV3 has gone bonkers with blocking up north.


Models can go bonkers in Greenland with big HP when the North Atlantic is effected by -NAO or -AO or both. This happened a lot in 2009-2012 period. Greenland is high in elevation though, mean altitude of the ice sheet is over 5-7k feet, so it's not true surface HP. Kind of like how models can show very high pressures in the Rockies but lower once it hits the plains.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2784 Postby Lagreeneyes03 » Fri Jan 11, 2019 2:47 pm

MississippiWx wrote:The ensembles have been very consistent about the Arctic dam (wxman wall) breaking. The operational runs will be inconsistent, as always, so take them with a grain of salt. The ensembles show that the rest of winter could be brutally cold.


How's it looking for Central Florida Mid Feb? Cold or will they be bubbled out of it?
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2785 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Jan 11, 2019 2:52 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:1079mb high in Greenland on the 12z FV3 lol I honestly don’t think I’ve ever seen a high forecasted that strong ever since I’ve been following the models the past few years. This is now the second time in the past 3 days the FV3 has gone bonkers with blocking up north.


Models can go bonkers in Greenland with big HP when the North Atlantic is effected by -NAO or -AO or both. This happened a lot in 2009-2012 period. Greenland is high in elevation though, mean altitude of the ice sheet is over 5-7k feet, so it's not true surface HP. Kind of like how models can show very high pressures in the Rockies but lower once it hits the plains.


I gotcha! I like the blocking up there though and off the west coast of Canada. Looks ideal.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2786 Postby Cerlin » Fri Jan 11, 2019 2:55 pm

This seems like the best possible setup and I’m super excited.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2787 Postby rwfromkansas » Fri Jan 11, 2019 3:00 pm

I would like the core of the trough to be a bit further west, but it's far enough west to deliver with a continued train of systems. Just please be dry for our yearbook work days. Final deadline in a month....
Last edited by rwfromkansas on Fri Jan 11, 2019 3:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2788 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jan 11, 2019 3:05 pm

12z Euro ensembles is rocking it. Next week's system (for now) looks like snow a bit up to our north but who knows about that yet models are not in agreement. Some cold air spills southward (Euro has near 20F for lows) but then the EPS goes nuts after and spills the goods straight down the US. Blocking on either end.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2789 Postby gboudx » Fri Jan 11, 2019 3:12 pm

Aaaaaaand, Lucy tees up the ball.........

:cheesy:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2790 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Jan 11, 2019 3:15 pm

The CPC has most of the cold missing most of Texas to the east..the Euro shows it coming straight down towards Texas. I think the CPC is off with this.

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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2791 Postby Brent » Fri Jan 11, 2019 3:19 pm

I just hope we don't miss to the south again, its our turn dang it! :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2792 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Jan 11, 2019 3:29 pm

Not to rain on anyone’s parade, but man, this looks ugly.

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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2793 Postby orangeblood » Fri Jan 11, 2019 3:37 pm

For entertainment purposes only!!!....this was mentioned earlier but I've never seen an ensemble member go this bonkers on a snow forecast, check out crazy Member #14 :double: Yes, that is 39 inches of snow for DFW hahaha

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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2794 Postby Brent » Fri Jan 11, 2019 3:44 pm

orangeblood wrote:For entertainment purposes only!!!....this was mentioned earlier but I've never seen an ensemble member go this bonkers on a snow forecast, check out crazy Member #14 :double: Yes, that is 39 inches of snow for DFW hahaha

http://i64.tinypic.com/28kpseh.jpg


Dallas would be closed til summer :roflmao:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2795 Postby rwfromkansas » Fri Jan 11, 2019 3:47 pm

orangeblood wrote:For entertainment purposes only!!!....this was mentioned earlier but I've never seen an ensemble member go this bonkers on a snow forecast, check out crazy Member #14 :double: Yes, that is 39 inches of snow for DFW hahaha

http://i64.tinypic.com/28kpseh.jpg


Lol. Even if it was in the 60s a few days after that (unlikely with that much snow), it would take a solid week or two to melt all that off. That member went crazy.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2796 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Jan 11, 2019 3:47 pm

orangeblood wrote:For entertainment purposes only!!!....this was mentioned earlier but I've never seen an ensemble member go this bonkers on a snow forecast, check out crazy Member #14 :double: Yes, that is 39 inches of snow for DFW hahaha

http://i64.tinypic.com/28kpseh.jpg


Yeah, that’s wild, but only 7 out of those 20 members show anything.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2797 Postby orangeblood » Fri Jan 11, 2019 3:53 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
orangeblood wrote:For entertainment purposes only!!!....this was mentioned earlier but I've never seen an ensemble member go this bonkers on a snow forecast, check out crazy Member #14 :double: Yes, that is 39 inches of snow for DFW hahaha

http://i64.tinypic.com/28kpseh.jpg


Yeah, that’s wild, but only 7 out of those 20 members show anything.


I'm more of a glass half-full kind of guy....living below the 34 deg N parallel, from this far out give me a 33% chance of greater than 3 inches of snow ALL DAY EVERYDAY
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2798 Postby gpsnowman » Fri Jan 11, 2019 4:06 pm

I know the model runs have been great today which has me extremely excited but today is a big bust on the rain so far. Maybe we can get some later this evening.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2799 Postby TheProfessor » Fri Jan 11, 2019 4:12 pm

Wow! Dayton Ohio has finally been placed under a winter storm warning for the first time since February 2015. The drought still lives here in Columbus for the time being, but at least my friends just west of me have something to celebrate about.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2800 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Fri Jan 11, 2019 4:26 pm

Liking what i see. Whats been missing from our prediction this winter has been Greenland blocking. FV3 wasnt shy about that one bit in the long-range. What a dream scenario at the end of that run.
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