Texas Winter 2018-2019

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Brent
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2801 Postby Brent » Fri Jan 11, 2019 4:39 pm

gpsnowman wrote:I know the model runs have been great today which has me extremely excited but today is a big bust on the rain so far. Maybe we can get some later this evening.


Yeah what happened to the rain? Definitely a reason to be cautious
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2802 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Fri Jan 11, 2019 4:46 pm

Even up here in the area that was forecasted to receive 1-1.5” we’ve only received 0.03”. This is one time I’m glad that it’s been a bust. I still have standing water and mud everywhere.

Edit-The funnel on the rain gauge of my weather station blew off at some point so my readings are inaccurate. My 4” gauge shows the forecasted 1.5” and everything is even more underwater. :x
Last edited by Yukon Cornelius on Fri Jan 11, 2019 6:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2803 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jan 11, 2019 4:52 pm

Brent wrote:
gpsnowman wrote:I know the model runs have been great today which has me extremely excited but today is a big bust on the rain so far. Maybe we can get some later this evening.


Yeah what happened to the rain? Definitely a reason to be cautious


For DFW the bulk of the rain comes this evening and night. Though its been rather cool and chilly with pwats not terribly high. I'd say 0.50"-0.75" is generous.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2804 Postby Quixotic » Fri Jan 11, 2019 5:17 pm

Three feet of snow in DFW would probably produce panic induced food shortages.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2805 Postby HockeyTx82 » Fri Jan 11, 2019 5:18 pm

So when should we expect the models to dump the cold air 180 degrees the other way? That is if they are going to. What's more likely at this point? Cold air coming this way or the Cowboys winning the Super Bowl this season? I need to call my Vegas contact.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2806 Postby Brent » Fri Jan 11, 2019 5:50 pm

GFS unleashes the arctic beginning next weekend and even colder towards the 22nd/23rd :froze:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2807 Postby Texas Snow » Fri Jan 11, 2019 5:56 pm

Rick Mitchel on Ch5 just showed a graphic of “changing pattern” with a zonal jet now then flips it to show a vertical north to south jet next weekend. His lows right now are only 32 sun and mon but I wouldnt expect tv to jump to a crazy forecast this quickly or this far out, especially with disagreement.

Also the NWS just hints at something. Would expect to see a little more from them starting tomorrow afternoon.

The pattern may indeed become more active next weekend for North
and Central Texas, but confidence is very low at synoptic and
smaller scales (in addition to this time range remaining outside
the scope of our current forecast).
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2808 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Jan 11, 2019 6:09 pm

Brent wrote:GFS unleashes the arctic beginning next weekend and even colder towards the 22nd/23rd :froze:


Ehhh, it’s not really that cold. Coldest temp it has the entire run is 28 for DFW. Looks like it has the brunt of the cold going more towards the east rather than straight south.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2809 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Fri Jan 11, 2019 6:27 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Brent wrote:GFS unleashes the arctic beginning next weekend and even colder towards the 22nd/23rd :froze:


Ehhh, it’s not really that cold. Coldest temp it has the entire run is 28 for DFW. Looks like it has the brunt of the cold going more towards the east rather than straight south.


I would focus more on the pattern at this point. A 1056MB high crossing the border i'm pretty sure would bring much cooler temps than it's showing right now. I get it's wrapped in the PV but its more about the pattern. Looks promosing.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2810 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jan 11, 2019 6:28 pm

More models to bite.

Next weekend though does appear to be colder than what the models were showing a few days ago.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2811 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jan 11, 2019 6:33 pm

Normally I wouldn't advocate such kind of -EPO/HP dome in a Nino or Nino-esque year but the retrogression of the dateline tropical forcing and jet retraction leads me to believe this could happen. The recent Bombogenesis in the Aleutians helped kickstart the changes in the Polar regions of the Pacific. That's almost near perfect timing of the SSW/AO propagating downwards. This period could be like Nuri period on steroids in peak climo.

Watch your top left at the Aleutians of what happened this week.

Image

And then watch what happens over Alaska to build cold air.

Image

Don't be surprised if we get a -NAO to lock in the cold afterwards.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2812 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Jan 11, 2019 7:01 pm


Don't be surprised if we get a -NAO to lock in the cold afterwards.



Looking at the 18Z GFS 500 mb Northern Hemisphere analysis in the long range within 264 hours, and even moreso beyond 300 hours, height rises across Greenland really look quite impressive. It is quite a blocking ridge setting up over Greenland. This is a very solid harbinger of a rather potentially strong - NAO to me indeed, should the model solution hold steadfast. I definitely expect this very cold pattern to really lock into place across North America. for a rather prolonged period.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2813 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Jan 11, 2019 7:35 pm

northjaxpro wrote:

Don't be surprised if we get a -NAO to lock in the cold afterwards.



Looking at the 18Z GFS 500 mb Northern Hemisphere analysis in the long range within 264 hours, and even moreso beyond 300 hours, height rises across Greenland really look quite impressive. It is quite a blocking ridge setting up over Greenland. This is a very solid harbinger of a rather potentially strong - NAO to me indeed, should the model solution hold steadfast. I definitely expect this very cold pattern to really lock into place across North America. for a rather prolonged period.


The Greenland blocking is off the charts :eek:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2814 Postby rwfromkansas » Fri Jan 11, 2019 10:29 pm

Snowfall from KS to MO is going to build an ok snowpack at least. The forecast for much of the region has doubled since this morning. About six inches expected for my hometown.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2815 Postby Brent » Fri Jan 11, 2019 11:08 pm

rwfromkansas wrote:Snowfall from KS to MO is going to build an ok snowpack at least. The forecast for much of the region has doubled since this morning. About six inches expected for my hometown.


I bet someone west of St. Louis sees well over a foot easy

Cant wait til its our turn
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2816 Postby TheProfessor » Fri Jan 11, 2019 11:29 pm

Brent wrote:
rwfromkansas wrote:Snowfall from KS to MO is going to build an ok snowpack at least. The forecast for much of the region has doubled since this morning. About six inches expected for my hometown.


I bet someone west of St. Louis sees well over a foot easy

Cant wait til its our turn


The way things are going right now 20 inches of snow may not be out of reach for a jackpot in that area.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2817 Postby Brent » Sat Jan 12, 2019 12:49 am

multiple winter storm setups on the 0z GEFS, I haven't seen that many members with a snow event all winter :cold: next weekend is just a test run :lol: Unfortunately most of it is in fantasy land still but its a start
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2818 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:54 am

Euro is trolling DFW with snow for next week.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2819 Postby Brent » Sat Jan 12, 2019 2:28 am

Euro has 73 at DFW Friday and is snowing Saturday :lol: with teens after the storm
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2820 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jan 12, 2019 7:49 am

Yeah this is why in my post yesterday I mentioned "for now" with next week's storm. Definitely starting to resemble slowly a southern plains winter storm as models gradually begins to see the cold air. 150+ hours out though.
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