Texas Winter 2018-2019

Winter Weather Discussion

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orangeblood
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2821 Postby orangeblood » Sat Jan 12, 2019 9:13 am

Ntxw wrote:Yeah this is why in my post yesterday I mentioned "for now" with next week's storm. Definitely starting to resemble slowly a southern plains winter storm as models gradually begins to see the cold air. 150+ hours out though.


Yep, as with most any winter weather pattern changes, focus on the pattern change first then worry about the details later....well it appears we've got the pattern change but still too far out for details. The cold is coming but IMO need to temper our expectations for winter weather, there's a high chance most of the precip will be east of us but only need 1 of these S/Ws to dig west and most should be happy
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2822 Postby harp » Sat Jan 12, 2019 9:43 am

orangeblood wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Yeah this is why in my post yesterday I mentioned "for now" with next week's storm. Definitely starting to resemble slowly a southern plains winter storm as models gradually begins to see the cold air. 150+ hours out though.


Yep, as with most any winter weather pattern changes, focus on the pattern change first then worry about the details later....well it appears we've got the pattern change but still too far out for details. The cold is coming but IMO need to temper our expectations for winter weather, there's a high chance most of the precip will be east of us but only need 1 of these S/Ws to dig west and most should be happy

I agree. the puzzle pieces are on the table. Let's see how they finally fit together. It's been a fairly boring winter. We nerds finally have something to watch and discuss. :)
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2823 Postby bubba hotep » Sat Jan 12, 2019 10:14 am

Pretty far in advance for FWD to bring this up.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2824 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jan 12, 2019 10:41 am

Record highs end of the week are mostly north of 80. While we may miss that the events that are starting to trickle in from the models suggest blue norther type stuff after heat.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2825 Postby spencer817 » Sat Jan 12, 2019 10:59 am

New ICON shows a nice swath if snow for DFW, we always like models catching on!
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2826 Postby bubba hotep » Sat Jan 12, 2019 11:08 am

bubba hotep wrote:I wonder how the FV3 handles the MJO? Right now the Euro EPS and GEFS are showing pretty different progressions of the MJO over the next couple of weeks. The EPS is trending towards the MJO emerging over the Indian Ocean in P2/3 and P3 is actually a pretty cold look during January +ENSO. The EPS would seem to favor cold sooner but the GEFS would seem to favor cold in the longer term with the MJO emerging over the WPAC.

EPS
https://i.ibb.co/Q84V4LZ/ECMF-phase-51m-small-1819.gif

GEFS
https://i.ibb.co/0nbGwc9/diagram-40days-forecast-GEFS-member-1819.gif

+ENSO January P3
https://i.ibb.co/wrW0q6H/Jan-ENMJOphase3all2m-T.gif

00z Euro D10
https://i.ibb.co/d5Z5vnR/ecmwf-T850a-namer-11.png

Our next potential Winter Wx system? It is out beyond D10 (shocking!) but at lest, for this one run, we have something to track. How does the timing work? Can we get moisture in before the air mass moderates too much?
https://i.ibb.co/zQj5s1d/ecmwf-z500a-Norm-namer-11.png


Much better agreement on the MJO now between the EPS and GEFS.

Image

Image

That seems to be resulting in agreement on the timing of the first cold dump.

00z GEFS and EPS

Image

Image

Let's see if we can eek out some winter wx with this first go round. 4 days ago it was just a wrinkle in the ensembles but I think we have something to track this week, now to watch the trends. The Euro, GFS, and FV3 are all actually pretty close to pulling off a N. Texas winter storm but we need some things to trend our way this week.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2827 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jan 12, 2019 11:27 am

CMC getting closer to a storm. 12z GFS at 5h is getting there it just ejects the S/W differently but you are definitely liking the medium range trends.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2828 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Jan 12, 2019 11:52 am

Getting in the 10-day range now. 12Z Operational GFS 240 hour run shows a mammoth 1056 mb Arctic High pushing out of Saskatchewan into the Northern Plains.

This is just round 2 of the cold coming up just in the next 10-14 days.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2829 Postby spencer817 » Sat Jan 12, 2019 12:05 pm

northjaxpro wrote:Getting in the 10-day range now. 12Z Operational GFS 240 hour run shows a mammoth 1056 mb Arctic High pushing out of Saskatchewan into the Northern Plains.

This is just round 2 of the cold coming up just in the next 10-14 days.


Temps in the teens hour 288 GFS, single digits up on the red river :cold:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2830 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:04 pm

No matter which way you slice it, east of the Rockies the ball looks like it starts rolling about a week from now. El Ninos are known for back-end winters. Plenty of cold air sitting around the next 30-45 days.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2831 Postby bubba hotep » Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:05 pm

A number of the GEFS members look similar to the 00z Euro with some light snow across N. Texas next weekend. There is one big hitter system but that seems unlikely at this point. Now to see what the 12z Euro delivers.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2832 Postby Brent » Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:41 pm

so close on the 12z Euro for DFW, good snow north of the Red River Friday Night into Saturday, maybe a little snow in the northern counties
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2833 Postby missygirl810 » Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:54 pm

Well, I have learned from this board time and time again not to trust it until 2-3 days out lol. Really hoping though!!! :double: :double:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2834 Postby bubba hotep » Sat Jan 12, 2019 2:00 pm

Brent wrote:so close on the 12z Euro for DFW, good snow north of the Red River Friday Night into Saturday, maybe a little snow in the northern counties


I like the trends so far today, still a longggggg ways to go lol
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2835 Postby Brent » Sat Jan 12, 2019 2:12 pm

bubba hotep wrote:
Brent wrote:so close on the 12z Euro for DFW, good snow north of the Red River Friday Night into Saturday, maybe a little snow in the northern counties


I like the trends so far today, still a longggggg ways to go lol


either way next weekend is extremely cold on the 12z, may be lucky to get much above the mid 30s even without real snow :froze: Snow would be icing on the cake with that :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2836 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jan 12, 2019 2:19 pm

5h Euro actually looks pretty decent. There is fresh cold air advection. Maybe a tick further south track would be lovely.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2837 Postby CaptinCrunch » Sat Jan 12, 2019 3:01 pm

Next weekend starts what looks to be several weeks of below average temps across much of the state. Right now NWS FTW is forecasting mid 40s for highs by next Saturday with first freeze of 2019 Saturday night. I betting next weekend we'll be lucky if highs even make it to 40 with lows in the mid to upper 20s.

From the 18th forward winter is on, and if we can get these lows to come along as this pattern has brought us then we are in business for some winter precipitation.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2838 Postby Texas Snow » Sat Jan 12, 2019 3:07 pm

Turn it to NBC, gonna have a snow playoff game in KC. And its 31 degrees.

Oh please please come to Dallas soon. That looks glorious.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2839 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jan 12, 2019 3:33 pm

Texas Snow wrote:Turn it to NBC, gonna have a snow playoff game in KC. And its 31 degrees.

Oh please please come to Dallas soon. That looks glorious.


Based on radar the snow is winding down and will be over soon, just flurries by game time. Though we may see snow on the ground that they don't plow!
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2840 Postby Texas Snow » Sat Jan 12, 2019 3:39 pm

Yeah I was just home for a minute and didn’t look at radar but pregame looks great outside the stadium. I did hear them say before I left that the field had a warming system. Booo!
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