Texas Winter 2018-2019

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Ntxw
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2841 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jan 12, 2019 3:40 pm

CaptinCrunch wrote:Next weekend starts what looks to be several weeks of below average temps across much of the state. Right now NWS FTW is forecasting mid 40s for highs by next Saturday with first freeze of 2019 Saturday night. I betting next weekend we'll be lucky if highs even make it to 40 with lows in the mid to upper 20s.

From the 18th forward winter is on, and if we can get these lows to come along as this pattern has brought us then we are in business for some winter precipitation.


I bet some get into the teens next weekend. I'm anticipating the cold air mass will be colder than currently on the models. -EPO/-WPO combo. Bubba made a comment earlier that the "cold" next weekend originally looked like a blip on the far range that has since ballooned.

EPS continues to support a much colder period ahead.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2842 Postby Brent » Sat Jan 12, 2019 4:11 pm

Texas Snow wrote:Yeah I was just home for a minute and didn’t look at radar but pregame looks great outside the stadium. I did hear them say before I left that the field had a warming system. Booo!


where's the fun in that? :roflmao:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2843 Postby Texas Snow » Sat Jan 12, 2019 4:50 pm

Relevevant to next weekend section of AFD according to FWD:

The most noteworthy potential of the extended forecast exists
Friday night into next Saturday. By most indications, a Hudson Bay
vortex will deepen during the first half of the week, while
heights will build from Alaska towards the North Pole. Resultant
cross-polar flow will dislodge very cold surface air southward
into southern Canada and the northern Plains by mid/late week.
Meanwhile, medium-range deterministic and some ensemble guidance
suggest a Pacific impulse will undercut the aforementioned western
ridge and cross the Plains through the day Saturday. As an
attendant surface cyclone develops across the south-central US,
strengthening northerly flow behind the wave will draw this cold-
air reservoir southward over Texas.

Of higher confidence is an expectation that temperatures will
become quite cold on Saturday, with some locations perhaps
remaining in the 30s during the day. Indeed, the potential exists
for highs to be lower than what is currently advertised, but did
not want to be too aggressive with the forecast at such an
extended range.


As for any winter-weather potential, large uncertainty exists with
the spatial and temporal evolution of the broader mid/upper trough
and the associated surface low. Most guidance indeed indicates a
positive tilt with the passage, suggesting any substantial
deepening and related mass response (impacting precipitation
potential) will be highest to our east. However, the ECMWF has
been trending towards a somewhat deeper solution and farther
southward advance of the synoptic trough, which would increase
winter weather potential, especially towards the Red River.

Meanwhile, the GFS and a notable number of its ensemble
counterparts maintain a slightly more progressive, less amplified
system, with rapid drying in its wake, ending any light
precipitation well before snow/sleet is possible.


So what`s a meteorologist to do with this conundrum? Well, a
slightly more amplified system (e.g., the ECMWF portrayal) does
not seem unreasonable, especially given the thrust of cold air and
baroclinicity that will be present. However, the antecedent
synoptic pattern will be characterized by relatively fast, zonal
flow ahead of this wave, which would favor a quicker eastward
cyclogenetic evolution that would be drier for North and Central
Texas (e.g., the GFS solution). Given that the answer most likely
(but still with low confidence) lies somewhere between those two
solutions, and also considering the very complex upstream/Pacific
pattern impacting the approaching wave, think it is too soon to
introduce any winter weather into our forecast. Therefore, have
maintained only low chances for rain showers Friday into Saturday,
before conditions dry out (with higher confidence) Saturday
night. Regardless, keep checking back for updates, as the forecast
will change (and that`s a 100% confidence forecast).


Picca


:lol:

As we get closer we need to hope the Euro to keeps trending deeper and a little further south and have the others start chasing it. I know that’s obvious but I think by typing it, our chances improve.
Last edited by Texas Snow on Sat Jan 12, 2019 5:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2844 Postby utweather » Sat Jan 12, 2019 5:26 pm

missygirl810 wrote:Well, I have learned from this board time and time again not to trust it until 2-3 days out lol. Really hoping though!!! :double: :double:


Yeah 3 days at the most.
I'm hoping the 4-5 day temps dont edge higher into the 80s. The early spring weeds are disgusting already. Picked up some spring supplies at lowes a few days ago. Nobody was there, lol. Freezing temps would be nice this winter like last year..
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2845 Postby Lagreeneyes03 » Sat Jan 12, 2019 5:32 pm

Brent wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:
Brent wrote:so close on the 12z Euro for DFW, good snow north of the Red River Friday Night into Saturday, maybe a little snow in the northern counties


I like the trends so far today, still a longggggg ways to go lol


either way next weekend is extremely cold on the 12z, may be lucky to get much above the mid 30s even without real snow :froze: Snow would be icing on the cake with that :lol:


It will proabably "Cold Rain"...36-37 and rain...as usual.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2846 Postby Cpv17 » Sat Jan 12, 2019 5:39 pm

Lagreeneyes03 wrote:
Brent wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:
I like the trends so far today, still a longggggg ways to go lol


either way next weekend is extremely cold on the 12z, may be lucky to get much above the mid 30s even without real snow :froze: Snow would be icing on the cake with that :lol:


It will proabably "Cold Rain"...36-37 and rain...as usual.


The difference between this upcoming system and the previous ones was that this one has some true Artic air to work with. The previous ones didn’t.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2847 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Sat Jan 12, 2019 5:52 pm

Low 40s all day today. Nice!
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2848 Postby harp » Sat Jan 12, 2019 6:03 pm

18Z GFS backed off on the extreme cold. Hmmm.... ???
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2849 Postby Ralph's Weather » Sat Jan 12, 2019 6:08 pm

It will be so nice to have a system in an Arctic air mass. We have had many close calls but the Pacific has not cooperated until now.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2850 Postby CaptinCrunch » Sat Jan 12, 2019 6:11 pm

harp wrote:18Z GFS backed off on the extreme cold. Hmmm.... ???


Remember, there is a warm up before the cold. Close to 70 by Thursday before the bottom drops out Friday night. The models will latch onto the warm up before they turn colder.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2851 Postby Cpv17 » Sat Jan 12, 2019 6:13 pm

harp wrote:18Z GFS backed off on the extreme cold. Hmmm.... ???


Not that much. These runs will deviate back & forth from
cold to extreme cold especially at events over 5 days out. As long as there’s blocking near western Canada and Alaska and near Greenland then it should turn pretty cold.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2852 Postby harp » Sat Jan 12, 2019 6:17 pm

CaptinCrunch wrote:
harp wrote:18Z GFS backed off on the extreme cold. Hmmm.... ???


Remember, there is a warm up before the cold. Close to 70 by Thursday before the bottom drops out Friday night. The models will latch onto the warm up before they turn colder.

I'm referring to the 25th/26th time period.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2853 Postby Snowman67 » Sat Jan 12, 2019 6:27 pm

harp wrote:
CaptinCrunch wrote:
harp wrote:18Z GFS backed off on the extreme cold. Hmmm.... ???


Remember, there is a warm up before the cold. Close to 70 by Thursday before the bottom drops out Friday night. The models will latch onto the warm up before they turn colder.

I'm referring to the 25th/26th time period.


Yes. It went from -30's at the US/Canadian border to 30 above.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2854 Postby Cpv17 » Sat Jan 12, 2019 6:33 pm

harp wrote:
CaptinCrunch wrote:
harp wrote:18Z GFS backed off on the extreme cold. Hmmm.... ???


Remember, there is a warm up before the cold. Close to 70 by Thursday before the bottom drops out Friday night. The models will latch onto the warm up before they turn colder.

I'm referring to the 25th/26th time period.


That’s two weeks away lol don’t fret over that.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2855 Postby bubba hotep » Sat Jan 12, 2019 6:47 pm

18z FV3 gets snow into Oklahoma, similar to the 12z Euro but faster.

12z Euro

Image

18z FV3

Image

18z GFS

Image

Trend so far this winter is for these medium range system to become less progressive as we move up in time. We need less progressive and some more digging to get N. Texas into the game, not much but a week to work things out.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2856 Postby Brent » Sat Jan 12, 2019 7:01 pm

Lagreeneyes03 wrote:
Brent wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:
I like the trends so far today, still a longggggg ways to go lol


either way next weekend is extremely cold on the 12z, may be lucky to get much above the mid 30s even without real snow :froze: Snow would be icing on the cake with that :lol:


It will proabably "Cold Rain"...36-37 and rain...as usual.


nah I think our biggest issue is suppression and it ending up being dry cold, especially if the globals are too warm
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2857 Postby Rgv20 » Sat Jan 12, 2019 7:06 pm

One of the 12zECMWF Ensemble Member let the Arctic Hounds loose! :eek: These are the temperatures for 1/19 Saturday at 6pm :eek: :cold: All of Texas is below freezing with single digits close to Dallas

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2858 Postby Cpv17 » Sat Jan 12, 2019 7:46 pm

My gosh, the 18z FV3 absolutely hammers the eastern one third of the nation with crazy cold. Not so much in Texas.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2859 Postby Quixotic » Sat Jan 12, 2019 8:04 pm

Beware brutal cold modeling in positive enso years. It’ll get cold. Just not single digits record breaking cold.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2860 Postby Cpv17 » Sat Jan 12, 2019 8:25 pm

Quixotic wrote:Beware brutal cold modeling in positive enso years. It’ll get cold. Just not single digits record breaking cold.


We’ll see about that.
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