Texas Winter 2018-2019

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KatDaddy
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5581 Postby KatDaddy » Sun Feb 10, 2019 11:51 am

Texas Snowman wrote:Ok, I’ve tried to stay relatively quiet on this topic and let Portastorm and Ntxw give their thoughts. But now I think I’ll add a few things.

It may or may not snow here in Texas the rest of this winter - South Texas, North Texas, and everywhere in between. If it doesn’t, that’s disappointing because many of us were expecting (hoping) for something different.

But let me remind us all that we live in Texas, not North Dakota. We’re the southern most state in the Plains, not the northern most. Heck, we’re not even close to the middle. I’ve seen some mention Atlanta because we share a similar latitude. But we also share a similar latitude (in North Texas) with Phoenix and Southern California.

That means that if your happiness depends on snowfall here, you’re going to be disappointed far more times than you will be happy. And that’s true even where I live, just a few miles from the Red River.

I’ve lived here since 1979 and I’m now 53. There have been memorable winter events, sure. But there’s also been plenty of missed opportunities and snowless stretches too.

One day, it will snow again. One day it will snow big again. And one winter, it will snow a lot all season long. But until then, remember that all of this is kind of like droughts and floods here in Texas: in 2011 I thought it would never rain again but in 2015, I thought it would never stop.

So until your region of the Lone Star State gets the winter weather and cold you’re dreaming of, enjoy the weather. Because like Joe Bastardi says, it’s the only weather you’ve got! :D


Very well stated Texas Snowman!!!
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5582 Postby Longhornmaniac8 » Sun Feb 10, 2019 12:40 pm

Portastorm wrote:
Brent wrote:
spencer817 wrote:I am moving down to Waco in August. I'd be more confident with my chances down there at this point.


Well the way things are going it snows more to the south now anyway


Oh just stop already! Hey at least you have water. We can’t even drink or shower right now here in Austin because the suck-ass water utility screwed up again and we have rotting zebra mussels in our water. It smells horrible. Four months ago they mismanaged a flood and we didn’t have water for two weeks.

You may not have snow but at least you have nice water when you turn on your faucet.

And let me point out that Austin hasn’t seen more than an inch of snow in 15 years. So it could always be worse.


Amen. Certain NTXers have gotten awfully entitled about winter weather. All the pissing and moaning and "woe-is-me" attitudes have kinda rubbed me the wrong way, to be honest. For over a decade, those of us in Central TX have sat and watched time and time again as Lucy has pulled the football out, putting snow north, south, east, and west of us (sometimes all in the same event), while we come up empty.

Some perspective and awareness would be good for some to have.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5583 Postby spencer817 » Sun Feb 10, 2019 12:48 pm

Have fun with the missed opportunities, I'm moving to Kansas ASAP! :D tornado chases and an actual winter!

I get it you guys, climatology is a fickle game sometimes. But people also need to remember how ma nature has played games with NTX many times (it seems like many more times than other areas) and how C TX has seen more events in the past. I'm not complaining about not getting a foot of snow, but not seeing an inch+ for almost 4 years can be a but frustrating when my average from 1981-2010 is 2.1". I'm just ready for spring, it looks promising for the plains!
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I'm going to go to school for this stuff :P

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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5584 Postby Ntxw » Sun Feb 10, 2019 1:00 pm

spencer817 wrote:Have fun with the missed opportunities, I'm moving to Kansas ASAP! :D tornado chases and an actual winter!

I get it you guys, climatology is a fickle game sometimes. But people also need to remember how ma nature has played games with NTX many times (it seems like many more times than other areas) and how C TX has seen more events in the past. I'm not complaining about not getting a foot of snow, but not seeing an inch+ for almost 4 years can be a but frustrating when my average from 1981-2010 is 2.1". I'm just ready for spring, it looks promising for the plains!


DFW is paying up debt it owes 9 years ago about this time. We were owed 2-3 inches but given 12.5".
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5585 Postby CaptinCrunch » Sun Feb 10, 2019 1:46 pm

We all would love something winter like, I'm just glad it's been cold here and there. I've seen snow in early March, so I'm not throwing in the towel till mid March, or the first severe weather outbreak.

Just stay in your lane bro :ggreen:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5586 Postby gpsnowman » Sun Feb 10, 2019 2:20 pm

CaptinCrunch wrote:We all would love something winter like, I'm just glad it's been cold here and there. I've seen snow in early March, so I'm not throwing in the towel till mid March, or the first severe weather outbreak.

Just stay in your lane bro :ggreen:

The early morning t-storms last Thursday got me excited for some spring like storms but like you, I am not yet throwing in the towel on winter yet. Later this month into March could throw us a surprise or two. Has many times in the past. This current cold snap has been colder and longer lasting than what was predicted just a few days ago. I am not sure when the next front/system is due but it starts warming starting tomorrow for a few days.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5587 Postby gpsnowman » Sun Feb 10, 2019 2:26 pm

Ntxw wrote:
spencer817 wrote:Have fun with the missed opportunities, I'm moving to Kansas ASAP! :D tornado chases and an actual winter!

I get it you guys, climatology is a fickle game sometimes. But people also need to remember how ma nature has played games with NTX many times (it seems like many more times than other areas) and how C TX has seen more events in the past. I'm not complaining about not getting a foot of snow, but not seeing an inch+ for almost 4 years can be a but frustrating when my average from 1981-2010 is 2.1". I'm just ready for spring, it looks promising for the plains!


DFW is paying up debt it owes 9 years ago about this time. We were owed 2-3 inches but given 12.5".

Wow, nine years since the greatest DFW snow event. Hard to believe it was that long ago and hands down my most favorite winter memory ever. I wasn't a member of Storm2k yet and my daughter was about to turn two and I was still in my thirties!! Yikes!! :double:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5588 Postby Brent » Sun Feb 10, 2019 5:06 pm

Longhornmaniac8 wrote:
Portastorm wrote:
Brent wrote:
Well the way things are going it snows more to the south now anyway


Oh just stop already! Hey at least you have water. We can’t even drink or shower right now here in Austin because the suck-ass water utility screwed up again and we have rotting zebra mussels in our water. It smells horrible. Four months ago they mismanaged a flood and we didn’t have water for two weeks.

You may not have snow but at least you have nice water when you turn on your faucet.

And let me point out that Austin hasn’t seen more than an inch of snow in 15 years. So it could always be worse.


Amen. Certain NTXers have gotten awfully entitled about winter weather. All the pissing and moaning and "woe-is-me" attitudes have kinda rubbed me the wrong way, to be honest. For over a decade, those of us in Central TX have sat and watched time and time again as Lucy has pulled the football out, putting snow north, south, east, and west of us (sometimes all in the same event), while we come up empty.

Some perspective and awareness would be good for some to have.


You're right maybe we do feel entitled after watching everyone get snow last year when our climo is way better

And then to top it off this year had all this hype and we have nothing to show for it. Its not entirely hopeless though maybe we'll get a late surprise like 2015
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5589 Postby Texas Snow » Sun Feb 10, 2019 5:46 pm

@NWSFortWorth

Sunday afternoon weather update: Expect cooler conditions, light rain and drizzle...fo' shizzle. #dfwwx #ctxwx #texomawx #etxwx #abilene


:lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5590 Postby TheProfessor » Sun Feb 10, 2019 7:58 pm

Had a nice little snow event here today, probably dropped 2-3 inches of snow. It's going to be approaching 60 Tuesday and is looking like flooding will be a concern again. The ground is completely saturated here, many rivers are still in flood stage or only just fell below. I'm pretty worried we're going to see one of those big Ohio River floods this Spring unless we can go a week or two with temps above freezing while staying dry at the same time.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5591 Postby Haris » Sun Feb 10, 2019 11:34 pm

Does anyone on here know if I have good odds on seeing a snow event (2" +) while I am in Denver (city) Sat and Sun (upcoming) ? I am only there 2 days :( . The 0z gfs would be an epic dream!
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5592 Postby Portastorm » Mon Feb 11, 2019 6:56 am

Well I guess we’re all afraid to say something ... but what the heck, I’ll jump off the diving board first. :wink:

The period around Feb. 18th looks intriguing for Texas and the prospect for wintry weather. All the models are showing it. As always the details remain to be determined.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5593 Postby Texas Snow » Mon Feb 11, 2019 7:18 am

NWSFWD agrees that the time period is worth watching

We`ll be keeping our eyes on the Sunday Night-Monday period next
week as recent trends in global guidance depict a scenario that we
know tends to trip up the coarse-resolution guidance forecasts of
surface temperatures with surging shallow arctic boundaries. That
is, trends seem to be towards a pinched off mid-level
low/positively tilted trough axis developing from the Central
Plains into the Four Corners region with generally light northerly
700 mb flow directed down the eastern spine of the Rockies. These
set ups can result in intense lee side cold air damming scenarios
with extremely shallow arctic airmasses that coarse guidance
doesn`t handle well. For now, we`ve introduced some low PoPs over
the entire CWA Sunday night into Monday with a cold rain across
our Red River counties with low temperatures in the mid and upper
30s. This will be something to keep an eye on this week, however.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5594 Postby Cerlin » Mon Feb 11, 2019 7:53 am

Portastorm wrote:Well I guess we’re all afraid to say something ... but what the heck, I’ll jump off the diving board first. :wink:

The period around Feb. 18th looks intriguing for Texas and the prospect for wintry weather. All the models are showing it. As always the details remain to be determined.

Yeah, a good majority of EPS members are showing some kind of snow by the 20th. Some just a little, some quite a bit. GFS, FV3, CMC, and Euro OP runs as of 00z all also have really good trends even though they might not produce snow specifically on that run.
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Let it snow NTX!

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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5595 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Mon Feb 11, 2019 8:35 am

I’m sure it will change a million times between now and then but there’s snow in the forecast for next Monday.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5596 Postby wxman57 » Mon Feb 11, 2019 8:43 am

Portastorm wrote:Well I guess we’re all afraid to say something ... but what the heck, I’ll jump off the diving board first. :wink:

The period around Feb. 18th looks intriguing for Texas and the prospect for wintry weather. All the models are showing it. As always the details remain to be determined.


Looking like another marginal type of event, same as we've seen a few times across Texas. Maybe snow pellets or sleet again. Not looking like the whole air column will be cold enough for a significant snow event. Still a long way out, though. My initial thought is that we'll see something less than we saw last week in terms of winter weather.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5597 Postby orangeblood » Mon Feb 11, 2019 9:04 am

wxman57 wrote:
Portastorm wrote:Well I guess we’re all afraid to say something ... but what the heck, I’ll jump off the diving board first. :wink:

The period around Feb. 18th looks intriguing for Texas and the prospect for wintry weather. All the models are showing it. As always the details remain to be determined.


Looking like another marginal type of event, same as we've seen a few times across Texas. Maybe snow pellets or sleet again. Not looking like the whole air column will be cold enough for a significant snow event. Still a long way out, though. My initial thought is that we'll see something less than we saw last week in terms of winter weather.


I'll jump with you Porta!!! Heat Miser will be wrong on this one...this will be the coldest air of the season coming down and models will underestimate the southward push. As our NWS offices are mentioning, this is a classic setup for model error...even with that in mind, the models are still really cold!

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5598 Postby Cerlin » Mon Feb 11, 2019 9:07 am

Okay to my untrained eye this already looks like the best setup so far this winter for us...even if it’s a long way out.
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Let it snow NTX!

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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5599 Postby orangeblood » Mon Feb 11, 2019 9:23 am

And after Thursday of this week, we could be looking at significantly below normal temps through the end of February!!!

This is the latest CFS run for end of Feb/early March - Models are starting to pick up on the latest SOI crash and MJO propagation..this is the best sign we could hope for to finish out winter!

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5600 Postby wxman57 » Mon Feb 11, 2019 9:44 am

The air could be cold, but we'll also need something to produce precip in the cold air. Let's see what it looks like by Friday.
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