Texas Winter 2018-2019

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dhweather
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5601 Postby dhweather » Mon Feb 11, 2019 10:00 am

wxman57 wrote:
Portastorm wrote:Well I guess we’re all afraid to say something ... but what the heck, I’ll jump off the diving board first. :wink:

The period around Feb. 18th looks intriguing for Texas and the prospect for wintry weather. All the models are showing it. As always the details remain to be determined.


Looking like another marginal type of event, same as we've seen a few times across Texas. Maybe snow pellets or sleet again. Not looking like the whole air column will be cold enough for a significant snow event. Still a long way out, though. My initial thought is that we'll see something less than we saw last week in terms of winter weather.


Realistically, is there ever a slam-dunk type wintry precipitation event forecast in the South? It was a sure bet, Winter Storm Warning a couple of weeks ago in Mississippi and Alabama, not even a flurry.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5602 Postby orangeblood » Mon Feb 11, 2019 11:20 am

Mr. Heat Miser - when you get a chance, will you please break down the 12Z GFS meteogram for next Monday in both DFW and Austin!!! :wink:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5603 Postby mcheer23 » Mon Feb 11, 2019 11:22 am

Well 12z GFS certainly had too much coffee this morning.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5604 Postby wxman57 » Mon Feb 11, 2019 11:25 am

orangeblood wrote:Mr. Heat Miser - when you get a chance, will you please break down the 12Z GFS meteogram for next Monday in both DFW and Austin!!! :wink:


Heavy snow for the D-FW area. I certainly believe it. Hope you do get a snow storm up there. Then we can proclaim winter to be over.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5605 Postby orangeblood » Mon Feb 11, 2019 11:29 am

Yes Alex, I'll take the 12Z GFS for $1000 please!!!!

About as beautiful of a picture as you can draw in the South!!!

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5606 Postby harp » Mon Feb 11, 2019 11:30 am

You folks should frame the 12Z GFS.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5607 Postby gpsnowman » Mon Feb 11, 2019 11:32 am

What time frame on Monday? I'm driving back from Caddo Lake that day. :froze:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5608 Postby orangeblood » Mon Feb 11, 2019 11:37 am

gpsnowman wrote:What time frame on Monday? I'm driving back from Caddo Lake that day. :froze:


Obviously, this is way too early but according to the GFS.....Early Monday morning frozen precip begins to break out and ends Monday evening! If were anything close to being correct, travel plans Monday and Tuesday need to watched closely!
Last edited by orangeblood on Mon Feb 11, 2019 11:37 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5609 Postby Cerlin » Mon Feb 11, 2019 11:37 am

See? Good setup! Good trends! Not all hope is lost!

Edit: And the temps are below freezing for more than a day!! That’s just the perfect snowstorm!

But it is only one run...
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Let it snow NTX!

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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5610 Postby gpsnowman » Mon Feb 11, 2019 11:42 am

orangeblood wrote:
gpsnowman wrote:What time frame on Monday? I'm driving back from Caddo Lake that day. :froze:


Obviously, this is way too early but according to the GFS.....Early Monday morning frozen precip begins to break out and ends Monday evening! If were anything close to being correct, travel plans Monday and Tuesday need to watched closely!

Thanks orangeblood. Yes it is still early but I just wanted to see to prepare. Hopefully a good week of trends coming up.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5611 Postby orangeblood » Mon Feb 11, 2019 11:42 am

Cerlin wrote:See? Good setup! Good trends! Not all hope is lost!

Edit: And the temps are below freezing for more than a day!! That’s just the perfect snowstorm!

But it is only one run...


And another system later in the week...shades of late Feb/early March 2015!!
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5612 Postby mcheer23 » Mon Feb 11, 2019 11:43 am

Is the GFS MOS page working for anybody?

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getmex.pl?sta=KSGR
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5613 Postby losf1981 » Mon Feb 11, 2019 11:44 am

orangeblood wrote:
gpsnowman wrote:What time frame on Monday? I'm driving back from Caddo Lake that day. :froze:


Obviously, this is way too early but according to the GFS.....Early Monday morning frozen precip begins to break out and ends Monday evening! If were anything close to being correct, travel plans Monday and Tuesday need to watched closely!


what part(s) of Texas are we talking about here? Thanks.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5614 Postby Cerlin » Mon Feb 11, 2019 11:45 am

orangeblood wrote:
Cerlin wrote:See? Good setup! Good trends! Not all hope is lost!

Edit: And the temps are below freezing for more than a day!! That’s just the perfect snowstorm!

But it is only one run...


And another system later in the week...shades of late Feb/early March 2015!!

I’m curious to see if the Euro will hop on board...but I would love another end of 2015 repeat!
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Let it snow NTX!

I’m an aspiring meteorologist who usually only speaks in layman’s terms. Any forecast or discussion I say is purely of my own opinion and should only be taken as such.

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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5615 Postby Ntxw » Mon Feb 11, 2019 11:50 am

Monster Westerly Wind burst. The last one with such magnitude in the month of Feb was likely 2015 that jumpstarted the Big Nino.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5616 Postby Ntxw » Mon Feb 11, 2019 12:20 pm

Daily SOI -19.02. Coupled with strong WWB with some lag time, sometime in the next 2-3 months I would probably forecast a flooding type event somewhere in Texas at some point.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5617 Postby Brent » Mon Feb 11, 2019 12:29 pm

I'm gonna frame this one

:roflmao:.
Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5618 Postby harp » Mon Feb 11, 2019 12:34 pm

Hopefully, this was not a rogue run.... see what the ensembles show.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5619 Postby gpsnowman » Mon Feb 11, 2019 12:36 pm

Brent wrote:I'm gonna frame this one

:roflmao:.
https://i.ibb.co/LvSmdq8/gfs-asnow-scus-32-1.png

Maybe I will just stay at Caddo Lake instead of coming back on Monday. The 12 inch zone is right on top of the lake!
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5620 Postby Brent » Mon Feb 11, 2019 12:43 pm

GFS ensembles

Image
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