Texas Winter 2018-2019

Winter Weather Discussion

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harp
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5621 Postby harp » Mon Feb 11, 2019 12:45 pm

Not that great....
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orangeblood
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5622 Postby orangeblood » Mon Feb 11, 2019 12:45 pm

harp wrote:Hopefully, this was not a rogue run.... see what the ensembles show.


GEFS backs it operational up but with the axis of heaviest accumulations along the red river into Oklahoma but bottom line is there are plenty of members singing the same tune - increasing odds for a major winter storm early next week!!
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5623 Postby Brent » Mon Feb 11, 2019 12:52 pm

Could use improvement

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5624 Postby orangeblood » Mon Feb 11, 2019 12:56 pm



Of course, that's how ensembles work...they'll improve as you get closer.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5625 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Mon Feb 11, 2019 12:57 pm

Things to note on this storm @ 180hrs.

Where is the HP? feel like the models have this wrong. Energy pouring down through the upper midwest but the surface pressures dont look right and the high is way up near the arctic....Could it be much colder than it's actually showing?

Heights over Alaska are increasing over this period, which helps the source region for our cold air. This could be the most important thing to watch. With this subtropical system near Hawaii, it could cause issues for the models, but if you look at the upper level high near alaska, for some reason, it didnt look right to me. I felt like it should be poking up into Alaska to near the North Slope. Thats just me though, these models are smarter than me.

GFS continues to show the storm deepening into Texas. Lets hope the trend continues.

Also, BEWARE! It's still over one week out and we know this storm will disappear around the 5 day mark.

You have to pardon my rambling. I usually look at very minute things in the Pacific for tales on what happens in our weather.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5626 Postby Brent » Mon Feb 11, 2019 1:04 pm

orangeblood wrote:


Of course, that's how ensembles work...they'll improve as you get closer.


we hope and I hope it happens

but sorry if I'm a skeptic but its been a long awful winter of teases
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5627 Postby Cerlin » Mon Feb 11, 2019 1:11 pm


Super promising. Most of them have moisture and quite a few have a nice snow storm.
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Let it snow NTX!

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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5628 Postby Snowman67 » Mon Feb 11, 2019 1:33 pm

wxman57 wrote:
orangeblood wrote:Mr. Heat Miser - when you get a chance, will you please break down the 12Z GFS meteogram for next Monday in both DFW and Austin!!! :wink:


Heavy snow for the D-FW area. I certainly believe it. Hope you do get a snow storm up there. Then we can proclaim winter to be over.


If you throw SE Texas into the winter fun, then you have a deal :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5629 Postby Ntxw » Mon Feb 11, 2019 1:44 pm

Certainly interesting with cold coming in and trough coming out with the Euro. It may or may not show much but good trends today.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5630 Postby Brent » Mon Feb 11, 2019 1:48 pm

Euro looks like mostly rain Monday although the frozen isnt far away

Tuesday looks more interesting icy in DFW
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5631 Postby orangeblood » Mon Feb 11, 2019 1:56 pm

Ntxw wrote:Certainly interesting with cold coming in and trough coming out with the Euro. It may or may not show much but good trends today.


Yes, deeper/slower trend is what we want to see (but not too far as to cut it off)...not the faster/progressive trend of the past 3 years it seems!
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5632 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Feb 11, 2019 2:24 pm

The Euro looks terrible for precipitation across Texas for the next 10 days with the exception of far east Texas. Hopefully that changes.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5633 Postby Haris » Mon Feb 11, 2019 2:42 pm

The daily fog,mist and drizzle is quite annoying. It needs to start actually raining. Its getting pretty dry! :grr: I am hopeful with El Nino further developing that the atmosphere will start coupling soon and spring will get active!
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Weather geek and a storm spotter in West Austin. Not a degreed meteorologist. Big snow fan. Love rain and cold! Despise heat!

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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5634 Postby wxman57 » Mon Feb 11, 2019 2:52 pm

Here's a comparison between the 00Z and 12Z Euro as far as snow accumulations in Texas. Euro doesn't agree with the 12Z GFS at all. No FV3-GFS yet. It performed better than the GFS across TX with the past system.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5635 Postby wxman57 » Mon Feb 11, 2019 2:54 pm

Here's a comparison of predicted temps from the Euro (top) and GFS (bottom) for the D-FW area. GFS is quite a bit colder. I'm not buying the 12Z GFS run at all.

Image

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5636 Postby gpsnowman » Mon Feb 11, 2019 2:56 pm

Big blob of rain moving into DFW. Looks light but could last a couple hours.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5637 Postby wxman57 » Mon Feb 11, 2019 2:59 pm

Here are the GFS ensembles snowfall predictions for D-FW. 13 of 20 ensembles members indicate SOME snow (trace or more). Two indicate "snowmageddon". No EC ensembles in yet. Canadian model says "the GFS is on crack". It indicates mixed precip after FROPA, less than last week.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5638 Postby orangeblood » Mon Feb 11, 2019 3:02 pm

:uarrow: Euro looks like a sleet profile for DFW....0.1 to .2 inch QPF after temps fall to freezing with a warm nose of 2-3 C from 650-850 mb

I'm not too fond of the EPS snow forecasts...they've been extremely unreliable lately!
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5639 Postby dhweather » Mon Feb 11, 2019 3:12 pm

The last 28 runs of the GFS for 18Z 02/18/2019

Image

I'm positive one of these will be correct! :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5640 Postby wxman57 » Mon Feb 11, 2019 3:29 pm

dhweather wrote:The last 28 runs of the GFS for 18Z 02/18/2019

https://media.giphy.com/media/EBuQbzJD99S8nWalAy/giphy.gif

I'm positive one of these will be correct! :lol:


Consistency is somewhat lacking, to say the least.
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