Texas Winter 2018-2019

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Cpv17
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5641 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Feb 11, 2019 3:29 pm

Dang :cold:

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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5642 Postby orangeblood » Mon Feb 11, 2019 3:47 pm



Yep, pretty overwhelming consensus across ALL guidance that the 2nd half of Feb is going into the freezer....I like the looks of the setup in that the southern plains will be located in the battle zone - fight between low level cold and the southeast ridge!
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5643 Postby Ntxw » Mon Feb 11, 2019 4:00 pm

orangeblood wrote:


Yep, pretty overwhelming consensus across ALL guidance that the 2nd half of Feb is going into the freezer....I like the looks of the setup in that the southern plains will be located in the battle zone - fight between low level cold and the southeast ridge!


I will post some maps of late Feb 2015 this evening. Maybe we can pull that off again. Liking the trends today and the MJO (feel like we have been talking about it forever) is finally moving.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5644 Postby rwfromkansas » Mon Feb 11, 2019 4:38 pm

You want to be in the battle zone a bit since that's where you get precip, but far enough into the cold that it "wins" more often than the ridge. Hope that's the case.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5645 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Mon Feb 11, 2019 4:39 pm

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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5646 Postby Texas Snow » Mon Feb 11, 2019 4:51 pm

Afternoon thoughts from NWSFWD as it relates to possible frozen precip

Next Weekend---The weekend will be cooler as strong CAA
overspreads much of the area. Temperatures will be below normal
though a majority of the weekend looks dry. The rain-free forecast
may change as 700mb WAA commences atop the colder near-surface
airmass late Sunday. The degree of this is somewhat unknown as
model guidance offers varying solutions. What appears most
probable is that precipitation chances increase late Sunday and
into next Monday as an upper low tracks eastward out of West
Texas. Depending on the degree of cold air in place, there will be
at least a risk for a rain/snow mix along the Red River and
across the Big Country.


I like the thoughts of precip into Monday suggesting slowing system. Need the cold damming they spoke about this morning to make sure temps are there.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5647 Postby wxman57 » Mon Feb 11, 2019 4:59 pm

EC Ensembles for D-FW are in - way warmer than the 12Z GFS:

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5648 Postby weatherdude1108 » Mon Feb 11, 2019 5:04 pm

Our local NWS meteorologists said our "Seattle" weather is about to come to an end. :wink: Interesting blurb for next Monday, but that's a week out.

000
FXUS64 KEWX 112055
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
255 PM CST Mon Feb 11 2019

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)...
Low stratus and patchy fog continues to linger across portions of
the Edwards Plateau this afternoon. Surface analysis shows 2 PM
temperatures range from the upper 40s across the plateau to the 70s
in the Coastal Plains. As a shortwave trough dives out of
Colorado/New Mexico later this evening, a deepening Texas Panhandle
surface low will quickly eject across the Southern Plains and drag an
attendant Pacific cold front across the region. A weak surface
pressure gradient and persistent shallow inversion will allow for
additional fog and patchy drizzle or light right to redevelop across
South Central Texas ahead of the cold front this evening. Some
locally dense fog may be possible, but is expected to be short-lived
as increasing and veering winds ahead of the cold front begin to lift
the fog by midnight. Rain will also shift east out of the region
overnight as these low level winds begin to veer.

12Z and preliminary inspection of 18Z model guidance remained fairly
consistent on the cold front reaching the Hill Country by midnight,
the Interstate 35 corridor by 3 AM, and clearing the region by
sunrise. Northwest to north winds are expected to increase into the
10-15 MPH range behind the front Tuesday morning. Low level wind
profiles behind the front show very strong winds just off the surface
(925 MB winds in the 35-40 knot range) and any kind of mixing may
mean wind gusts in the 20-30 MPH range are possible as the post
frontal layer deepens Tuesday morning.
Surface ridging quickly
building into South Central Texas behind the front will allow for
winds to quickly decrease Wednesday afternoon, but a brief window for
elevated fire weather conditions may exist along the Rio Grande as
much drier air filters into the region behind the front. Clearing
skies as this drier air filters into the region will allow for
temperatures near to slightly warmer than what has been observed the
past few days. If you`ve enjoyed living in the Seattle of the South
over the past few days, soak up these last few hours because the sun
will come out tomorrow.
Dry and clear conditions will continue into
Tuesday night as surface ridging begins to slide east with excellent
conditions for radiational cooling allowing for temperatures to fall
into the low to mid 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Quasizonal flow aloft and the return of southerly low level flow
with the surface ridges departure will allow for warmer but dry
weather to settle in across the region Wednesday and Thursday. Highs
in the 60s on Wednesday are expected to warm into the 70s on
Thursday. An approaching upper disturbance Thursday and Thursday
night will result in another round of surface cyclogenesis over the
High Plains, dragging another cold front across the region on Friday.
With limited moisture return ahead of this second front, have kept
the forecast dry with another window for elevated fire weather
conditions possible along the Rio Grande behind the front on Friday.
Dry conditions are expected to persist Saturday into Sunday, but the
approach of another frontal system by Monday will result in low rain
chances returning to the forecast at the beginning of next week.
Medium range guidance has trended considerably colder with this next
frontal system and will have to keep an eye on these temperatures and
any potential impacts on precipitation type/winter weather potential
for Monday.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5649 Postby CaptinCrunch » Mon Feb 11, 2019 5:10 pm

wxman57 wrote:EC Ensembles for D-FW are in - way warmer than the 12Z GFS:

http://wxman57.com/images/ECEnsDFW.png


Can just toss that grapft out as the high @ DFW so far today has been H58 - L43
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5650 Postby Brent » Mon Feb 11, 2019 5:37 pm

The 18z GFS is entirely different

Zero snow for most but 30 inches in Alabama :roflmao:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5651 Postby wxman57 » Mon Feb 11, 2019 5:45 pm

CaptinCrunch wrote:
wxman57 wrote:EC Ensembles for D-FW are in - way warmer than the 12Z GFS:

http://wxman57.com/images/ECEnsDFW.png


Can just toss that grapft out as the high @ DFW so far today has been H58 - L43


Nope. Ensembles mean is for the high to reach 62 today under south winds. Passing precip has kept the temp a couple of degrees lower (probably 59). Says nothing about next week.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5652 Postby wxman57 » Mon Feb 11, 2019 5:46 pm

Brent wrote:The 18z GFS is entirely different

Zero snow for most but 30 inches in Alabama :roflmao:


Oh, come on, it's only 20-25 inches for Alabama. ;-)
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5653 Postby Ntxw » Mon Feb 11, 2019 5:49 pm

Upper pattern for 18z gfs isn't drastically different. Only surface placement of qpf is shunted.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5654 Postby BrokenGlassRepublicn » Mon Feb 11, 2019 6:02 pm

wxman57 wrote:
orangeblood wrote:Mr. Heat Miser - when you get a chance, will you please break down the 12Z GFS meteogram for next Monday in both DFW and Austin!!! :wink:


Heavy snow for the D-FW area. I certainly believe it. Hope you do get a snow storm up there. Then we can proclaim winter to be over.

I'll take this deal. Mr wxman57, tear down this wall (for 1 storm)!!
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5655 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Mon Feb 11, 2019 6:09 pm

10 degree colder temp bust today!
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5656 Postby Texas Snow » Mon Feb 11, 2019 6:16 pm

Whoa, how did I miss this earlier when looking at the forecast discussion? This pinpoint forecast is for Far North Dallas from NWS. Interesting to follow this week.


Sunday Night

A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36. Chance of precipitation is 30%.


Washington's Birthday

A chance of rain and snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 45. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5657 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Mon Feb 11, 2019 6:35 pm

Ntxw wrote:Upper pattern for 18z gfs isn't drastically different. Only surface placement of qpf is shunted.


Winds at the 700MB level are different.

I could be wrong but the 500 mb level actually looks better.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5658 Postby wxman57 » Mon Feb 11, 2019 6:43 pm

Here is the 12Z Euro ensembles forecast with error bars. Note that the range of temps for the 18th-19th is less than the range from Friday to Sunday of this week. Not saying that's right, just that it is interesting that there is more agreement farther out in time.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5659 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Mon Feb 11, 2019 8:04 pm

Go ahead and quote me. Ingredients point toward our best chance this Winter. I’m placing bets on something happening in central and North Texas.

As someone who “gambles” with money on drought insurance I’ve studied this for a good while. No, I’m not a pro met, but my eyes like the piece by piece trend across the globals.

500 mb is Solid. I like our chances. Someone go buy Brent a pack of cigarettes. He may need one after next weeks event. :)
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5660 Postby sphelps8681 » Mon Feb 11, 2019 8:13 pm

Rented a cabin in Nacogdoches. We will be arriving the 18th. Any signs we may get snow/sleet/freezing rain? Will be leaving to go back home on the 21st. Need to know how to pack.
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