Texas Winter 2018-2019

Winter Weather Discussion

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TheProfessor
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6361 Postby TheProfessor » Wed Feb 27, 2019 6:29 pm

This has been the story of my experience here in Ohio. So close, but no cigar. I'd really love to finally cash in on a bullseye of a big storm. Columbus is the city on the right with the 3-4" of snow btw.

Image

Edit this was a storm back in January, but it's been the biggest storm for the ILN area so far this winter.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6362 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Wed Feb 27, 2019 6:54 pm

Very light graupel up this way.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6363 Postby gboudx » Wed Feb 27, 2019 7:06 pm

Haris wrote:I'll enjoy next weeks teens and 20s given that it'll be 90F again in no time!

And yes, I hope its an active severe weather season!

I need good shelf clouds and wall clouds!


As long as it doesn’t affect anyone works for me.
Last edited by gboudx on Wed Feb 27, 2019 9:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6364 Postby Lagreeneyes03 » Wed Feb 27, 2019 7:21 pm

gpsnowman wrote:Man the temps early next week look cold. What a crying shame if we can't even get a flurry or two out of this. Coldest air of the season and we may not score. I am done after this next week. The towel will be thrown. Bring on warm days and plenty of spring storms. I hope to witness some serious thunder and lightning all the way into June.


I'm ready for that, except for the last weekend in March (NASCAR weekend) Because storms at the races are a pain in my A$. I'm so ready for a hot spring and some storms.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6365 Postby Cerlin » Wed Feb 27, 2019 7:23 pm

Lagreeneyes03 wrote:
gpsnowman wrote:Man the temps early next week look cold. What a crying shame if we can't even get a flurry or two out of this. Coldest air of the season and we may not score. I am done after this next week. The towel will be thrown. Bring on warm days and plenty of spring storms. I hope to witness some serious thunder and lightning all the way into June.

I'm ready for that, except for the last weekend in March (NASCAR weekend) Because storms at the races are a pain in my A$. I'm so ready for a hot spring and some storms.

Last spring race weekend was super cold if I remember correctly...
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Let it snow NTX!

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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6366 Postby Cerlin » Wed Feb 27, 2019 7:48 pm

HRRR just has no moisture at all for most of TX.
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Let it snow NTX!

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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6367 Postby gpsnowman » Wed Feb 27, 2019 8:17 pm

Already down to 35 according to my NBC app. Forecasted low is 32. How low will we go??
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6368 Postby TarrantWx » Wed Feb 27, 2019 8:41 pm

gpsnowman wrote:Already down to 35 according to my NBC app. Forecasted low is 32. How low will we go??


It's already down to 29 in Northern Tarrant County with some fog and mist.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6369 Postby Cerlin » Wed Feb 27, 2019 8:44 pm

Down to 32 where I’m at in the Colony tonight.
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Let it snow NTX!

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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6370 Postby gpsnowman » Wed Feb 27, 2019 8:44 pm

TarrantWx wrote:
gpsnowman wrote:Already down to 35 according to my NBC app. Forecasted low is 32. How low will we go??


It's already down to 29 in Northern Tarrant County with some fog and mist.

The freezing drizzle line was just to the northwest of Tarrant County earlier. Wonder if I will wake up to a frozen car in the morning.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6371 Postby Haris » Wed Feb 27, 2019 8:54 pm

As of 730PM, it is 35F at KDFW.

For inquiring minds, here are what the computer models had yesterday for this timeframe...

YESTERDAYS 12Z GFS: 58F
YESTERDAYS 12Z ECM:63F
YESTERDAYS 12Z NAM: 48F
YESTERDAYS 18Z HRRR: 57F

Umm.... So... Yeah... :eek: :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6372 Postby Cerlin » Wed Feb 27, 2019 8:57 pm

Haris wrote:As of 730PM, it is 35F at KDFW.

For inquiring minds, here are what the computer models had yesterday for this timeframe...

YESTERDAYS 12Z GFS: 58F
YESTERDAYS 12Z ECM:63F
YESTERDAYS 12Z NAM: 48F
YESTERDAYS 18Z HRRR: 57F

Umm.... So... Yeah... :eek: :lol:


These are the kind of stats I like. We still have a lot of work to do before models are super accurate.
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Let it snow NTX!

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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6373 Postby Brent » Wed Feb 27, 2019 9:00 pm

Haris wrote:As of 730PM, it is 35F at KDFW.

For inquiring minds, here are what the computer models had yesterday for this timeframe...

YESTERDAYS 12Z GFS: 58F
YESTERDAYS 12Z ECM:63F
YESTERDAYS 12Z NAM: 48F
YESTERDAYS 18Z HRRR: 57F

Umm.... So... Yeah... :eek: :lol:


even the cold NAM was too warm :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6374 Postby gpsnowman » Wed Feb 27, 2019 9:01 pm

Haris wrote:As of 730PM, it is 35F at KDFW.

For inquiring minds, here are what the computer models had yesterday for this timeframe...

YESTERDAYS 12Z GFS: 58F
YESTERDAYS 12Z ECM:63F
YESTERDAYS 12Z NAM: 48F
YESTERDAYS 18Z HRRR: 57F

Umm.... So... Yeah... :eek: :lol:

44 is the forecasted high for tomorrow in DFW with a mostly cloudy day. Depending on how low we go, a day in the 30's is likely Thursday. Ralph's Weather touched on this scenario yesterday I believe.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6375 Postby Ntxw » Wed Feb 27, 2019 9:03 pm

Models don't always handle shallow cold air masses well in cases of EPO dumps. The busts in Oklahoma this morning should have been a telling sign.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6376 Postby cctxhurricanewatcher » Wed Feb 27, 2019 9:06 pm

Haris wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
Brent wrote:
19/34 for DFW Monday would verbatim be record setting... record low is 20 in 2002 record low max is 35 in 1960 so there's that :lol:

Also coldest of the entire winter

Monday Night will also be 4 years since DFW saw more than a dusting of snow :cry:


You need to move to Seattle or Houston if you want to see snow. ;-)



Or Vegas or even the LA suburbs :D


Or Maui or the mountains near Tijuana.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6377 Postby CaptinCrunch » Wed Feb 27, 2019 9:53 pm

Yeah, big bust on forecasted temps. Today's high fell 4 short of the forecast, and I'm on board for maybe 39 for a high tomorrow . Not sure where Delkus is getting highs near 60 for Friday and Saturday before the front, I'm going upper 40s.

Like I said earlier and NTXW stated, models dont handle this type of cold dense air, so whatever the models say for temps, take 10 off and start there. :ggreen:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6378 Postby Ralph's Weather » Wed Feb 27, 2019 9:55 pm

SHV NWS for some reason says past experiences with shallow cold makes them lead warm. Very odd statement. Everything about this air mass points to colder than modeled. If the wave is stronger tomorrow we could see a 10 or 15 degree bust.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6379 Postby aggiecutter » Wed Feb 27, 2019 10:03 pm

Ralph's Weather wrote:SHV NWS for some reason says past experiences with shallow cold makes them lead warm. Very odd statement. Everything about this air mass points to colder than modeled. If the wave is stronger tomorrow we could see a 10 or 15 degree bust.


Depending on the trajectory of the air mass, shallow arctic air often has trouble crossing the Quachita Mountains of south-central Arkansas southeast Oklahoma. This has an affect on temperatures in NE Texas, SW Arkansas, and Northern Louisiana.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6380 Postby Ralph's Weather » Wed Feb 27, 2019 10:08 pm

aggiecutter wrote:
Ralph's Weather wrote:SHV NWS for some reason says past experiences with shallow cold makes them lead warm. Very odd statement. Everything about this air mass points to colder than modeled. If the wave is stronger tomorrow we could see a 10 or 15 degree bust.


Depending on the trajectory of the air mass, shallow arctic air often has trouble crossing the Quachita Mountains of south-central Arkansas southeast Oklahoma. This has an affect on temperatures in NE Texas, SW Arkansas, and Northern Louisiana.
True guess they are referring to areas east of here. A surface high over NE is not much of an issue for the Tyler area.
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