Texas Winter 2018-2019

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opticsguy
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6381 Postby opticsguy » Wed Feb 27, 2019 10:51 pm

As of 730PM, it is 35F at KDFW.

For inquiring minds, here are what the computer models had yesterday for this timeframe...

YESTERDAYS 12Z GFS: 58F
YESTERDAYS 12Z ECM:63F
YESTERDAYS 12Z NAM: 48F
YESTERDAYS 18Z HRRR: 57F

Umm.... So... Yeah... :eek: :lol:


In graphical form
Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6382 Postby Ntxw » Wed Feb 27, 2019 11:01 pm

DFW airport is down to 31F. Today has been one of those days you just scratch your head and the old cliche shallow, dense, cold air. Sun-Tuesday should be a bigger push than this one.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6383 Postby Brent » Wed Feb 27, 2019 11:07 pm

Such a shame theres not some real moisture with this "surprise"

Probably a preview of Sunday Monday
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6384 Postby Ntxw » Wed Feb 27, 2019 11:11 pm

As a reminder the next 24 hours is the last period to post in this thread. The mods have agreed that we will open the Spring thread for general discussion Friday. If there is a legit threat early next week then specific posts on such a threat will be allowed here, otherwise posts will be moved accordingly. DJF is coming to an end.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6385 Postby CaptinCrunch » Wed Feb 27, 2019 11:12 pm

Brent wrote:Such a shame theres not some real moisture with this "surprise"

Probably a preview of Sunday Monday


Saving the surprise for the weekend. :wink:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6386 Postby Ntxw » Wed Feb 27, 2019 11:13 pm

CaptinCrunch wrote:
Brent wrote:Such a shame theres not some real moisture with this "surprise"

Probably a preview of Sunday Monday


Saving the surprise for the weekend. :wink:


Cross your fingers that the disturbance currently north of Hawaii ends up much further south with the baroclinic zone on Sun-Mon.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6387 Postby Texas Snow » Wed Feb 27, 2019 11:31 pm

Ntxw wrote:As a reminder the next 24 hours is the last period to post in this thread. The mods have agreed that we will open the Spring thread for general discussion Friday. If there is a legit threat early next week then specific posts on such a threat will be allowed here, otherwise posts will be moved accordingly. is coming to an end.


First of all I want to say you are one of my favorite posters, I mean that. In fact I love all the mods.

But this stance is a little bit silly in my opinion in the realm of overmoderation. The coldest air of the season may be coming and we cling at least to the slightest hope for ANY form of winter precip and we now have to post in the spring thunderstorm thread because it’s 3/1? Why not rename the threads dec/Jan/ feb followed by mar/April/may then there is no question ever?

I just dont see the downside in letting winter type talk continue here while there is winter weather. We all would know where to look if there is a tornado watch in March And likewise if DFW was under a blizzard warning. :wink:

Trust me, I’m not losing sleep over it either way so take no offense please , but I have thought it as funny for a while, and that is before we had winter coming in “spring”. I know you are looking for the best experience possible, as am I, so figured I would share my thoughts.

Seriously, Appreciate all you folks do. Just giving my 2 cents which you are welcome to toss back in the fountain.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6388 Postby rwfromkansas » Wed Feb 27, 2019 11:51 pm

Why can’t we get moisture in really cold temps but further north they can? My parents are expecting 5-8 inches on Sunday in KS with single digit temps.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6389 Postby Ntxw » Thu Feb 28, 2019 12:00 am

rwfromkansas wrote:Why can’t we get moisture in really cold temps but further north they can? My parents are expecting 5-8 inches on Sunday in KS with single digit temps.


Apart from air temperature, there is also PVa (shortwave) that traverses in the embedded flow. The further north you are the closer you generally are to the PVa anomaly so it easier to "snow." This is why timing in the south has to be perfect. You need the cold in the right place at the right time when a disturbance passes. Their margin for error in the north is much bigger, often already cold when it passes as the systems traverses. In the southern regions often it is not cold enough until the disturbance has passed. It's not that it can't snow in cold air, it's that the mechanism needed for lift tends to have moved on when colder air does filter in.

Now it doesn't mean it is all fail. Sometimes forecasts bust and the cold is much further south when the disturbance passes, yielding ice and snow. Sometimes the baroclinic zone is much further south, thus the "shortwave" in the embedded flow ends up way further south than the models anticipate expecting the cold to be further north. This is a very basic explanation and goes much deeper and complex.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6390 Postby Ntxw » Thu Feb 28, 2019 12:10 am

Texas Snow wrote:First of all I want to say you are one of my favorite posters, I mean that. In fact I love all the mods.

But this stance is a little bit silly in my opinion in the realm of overmoderation. The coldest air of the season may be coming and we cling at least to the slightest hope for ANY form of winter precip and we now have to post in the spring thunderstorm thread because it’s 3/1? Why not rename the threads dec/Jan/ feb followed by mar/April/may then there is no question ever?

I just dont see the downside in letting winter type talk continue here while there is winter weather. We all would know where to look if there is a tornado watch in March And likewise if DFW was under a blizzard warning. :wink:

Trust me, I’m not losing sleep over it either way so take no offense please , but I have thought it as funny for a while, and that is before we had winter coming in “spring”. I know you are looking for the best experience possible, as am I, so figured I would share my thoughts.

Seriously, Appreciate all you folks do. Just giving my 2 cents which you are welcome to toss back in the fountain.


Good evening Texas Snow!

We understand that the winter thread is the bread and butter of our family of Texas posters. Generally speaking we've decided that having two threads for discussion concurrently is not always a good thing, going back and forth between two threads for roughly the same kind of weather information is a double take. It's not really that necessary. We'd like to keep things consistent, using meteorological seasons as demarcation as it is used in the records and forecasts generally speaking. Believe me it's not an easy decision but is one we've debated over the years and keeps things running smoothly. Change can be a little bit difficult but the threads themselves doesn't make the winter, it's you guys! Where you go the season goes! Whether we all post here or the spring thread really isn't too big an issue as long as posters have a single medium to go by, and by going with 3 month increments it keeps things in a good flow despite of course Texas seasons are ambiguous with summer extending into the fall, winter sometimes goes through spring! And we are very loose mods (myself, Portastorm, Texas Snowman, Wxman57) so you don't need to worry if you're not sure what goes where. If it's winter related and it's a good threat we'll leave it be :wink:.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6391 Postby Brent » Thu Feb 28, 2019 12:17 am

rwfromkansas wrote:Why can’t we get moisture in really cold temps but further north they can? My parents are expecting 5-8 inches on Sunday in KS with single digit temps.


its just crazy isn't it... winters like this make me wonder if we're not cursed honestly, I mean it snows literally everywhere else :lol: but the first moment we get cold the moisture evaporates
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6392 Postby Texas Snow » Thu Feb 28, 2019 12:19 am

Ntxw wrote:Good evening Texas Snow!

We understand that the winter thread is the bread and butter of our family of Texas posters. Generally speaking we've decided that having two threads for discussion concurrently is not always a good thing, going back and forth between two threads for roughly the same kind of weather information is a double take. It's not really that necessary. We'd like to keep things consistent, using meteorological seasons as demarcation as it is used in the records and forecasts generally speaking. Believe me it's not an easy decision but is one we've debated over the years and keeps things running smoothly. Change can be a little bit difficult but the threads themselves doesn't make the winter, it's you guys! Where you go the season goes! Whether we all post here or the spring thread really isn't too big an issue as long as posters have a single medium to go by, and by going with 3 month increments it keeps things in a good flow despite of course Texas seasons are ambiguous with summer extending into the fall, winter sometimes goes through spring! And we are very loose mods (myself, Portastorm, Texas Snowman, Wxman57) so you don't need to worry if you're not sure what goes where. If it's winter related and it's a good threat we'll leave it be :wink:.


Appreciate the response and I am fine with it. I was just throwing out one opinion of many.

I do need to change my intitial statement on one topic, the one where I said I love all the mods. I forgot wxman57 was a mod...

:grr:

:wink:

8-)

:lol:
Last edited by Texas Snow on Thu Feb 28, 2019 12:22 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6393 Postby Brent » Thu Feb 28, 2019 12:22 am

Texas Snow wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
Texas Snow wrote:First of all I want to say you are one of my favorite posters, I mean that. In fact I love all the mods.

But this stance is a little bit silly in my opinion in the realm of overmoderation. The coldest air of the season may be coming and we cling at least to the slightest hope for ANY form of winter precip and we now have to post in the spring thunderstorm thread because it’s 3/1? Why not rename the threads dec/Jan/ feb followed by mar/April/may then there is no question ever?

I just dont see the downside in letting winter type talk continue here while there is winter weather. We all would know where to look if there is a tornado watch in March And likewise if DFW was under a blizzard warning. :wink:

Trust me, I’m not losing sleep over it either way so take no offense please , but I have thought it as funny for a while, and that is before we had winter coming in “spring”. I know you are looking for the best experience possible, as am I, so figured I would share my thoughts.

Seriously, Appreciate all you folks do. Just giving my 2 cents which you are welcome to toss back in the fountain.


Good evening Texas Snow!

We understand that the winter thread is the bread and butter of our family of Texas posters. Generally speaking we've decided that having two threads for discussion concurrently is not always a good thing, going back and forth between two threads for roughly the same kind of weather information is a double take. It's not really that necessary. We'd like to keep things consistent, using meteorological seasons as demarcation as it is used in the records and forecasts generally speaking. Believe me it's not an easy decision but is one we've debated over the years and keeps things running smoothly. Change can be a little bit difficult but the threads themselves doesn't make the winter, it's you guys! Where you go the season goes! Whether we all post here or the spring thread really isn't too big an issue as long as posters have a single medium to go by, and by going with 3 month increments it keeps things in a good flow despite of course Texas seasons are ambiguous with summer extending into the fall, winter sometimes goes through spring! And we are very loose mods (myself, Portastorm, Texas Snowman, Wxman57) so you don't need to worry if you're not sure what goes where. If it's winter related and it's a good threat we'll leave it be :wink:.


Appreciate the response and I am fine with it. I was just throwing out one opinion of many.

I do need to change my intitial statementon one topic where I said I love all the mods. I forgot wxman57 was a mod...

:grr:

:wink:

8-)

:lol:


:roflmao:

I'm glad you came to your senses there '
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6394 Postby Haris » Thu Feb 28, 2019 12:35 am

Image

Per my weather station, front blew into W Austin at 944. 65F.
Now 50F as of 1130.
Curious to see how things evolve down here in the heart of Texas
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6395 Postby Ntxw » Thu Feb 28, 2019 12:45 am

On a little note the temperature bust nearby by the GFS was absolutely atrocious within 3 days.

For example on Monday 12z run GFS had OKC around 60F noon today. The actual temperature was 21-22F around noon today in KOKC. That is almost a 40F temperature bust!

Image

While at DFW same run it has us at 60s around midnight, meanwhile closer to 30 real time right now.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6396 Postby gpsnowman » Thu Feb 28, 2019 5:24 am

Happy last day of February everyone. My car had a thin layer of ice on it this morning and freezing mist was falling all the way to work. Roads were fine but could be slippery as rush hour nears.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6397 Postby wxman57 » Thu Feb 28, 2019 6:50 am

GFS has a high of 40 at DFW on Monday and a high of 84 on Friday. Euro has a high there of 35 Monday and 72 Friday. Rather short cold snap.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6398 Postby EnnisTx » Thu Feb 28, 2019 6:58 am

Winter Weather Advisory out for DFW
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6399 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Thu Feb 28, 2019 7:42 am

Made it down to 22 with a windchill of 11. That red river wall must be a chain link fence..
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6400 Postby Tammie » Thu Feb 28, 2019 7:57 am

Fort Worth is a mess with accidents. 3 road closures. Freezing drizzle just started in Sherman. 1 rollover accident just reported on highway 82. Be careful out there Metroplexers!!!
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