Texas Winter 2018-2019

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Texas Snowman
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6481 Postby Texas Snowman » Fri Mar 01, 2019 5:32 am

:uarrow: Ah, but maybe this winter season isn’t ready to end. :froze: :jacket:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6482 Postby Ralph's Weather » Fri Mar 01, 2019 6:26 am

34 here this morning. We may see the low 40s today with drizzle, a long cry from the near 70 and sunny predicted a couple days ago. Tomorrow may reach 50 with showers. Sunday looks like temps falling into the 30s but little to no post frontal precip on any model. 30s to low 40s and cloudy Monday. Best shot I see for precip late Monday is for the GL upper low to be weaker and shift west. This would keep us in more zonal flow vs NW fow and it would allow the shortwave a chance to not fully shear out. The cold stays around through Wed before a warm-up Thu ahead of the next cold front next Friday.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6483 Postby Texas Snow » Fri Mar 01, 2019 7:18 am

It did warm slightly overnight, 33 at my house 34 at Addison Airport. NWS mentions Monday as a keep eye on for potential snow chance closer to River River. This far out that is enough to provide hope. I’m not giving up yet.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6484 Postby Ralph's Weather » Fri Mar 01, 2019 7:36 am

Texas Snow wrote:It did warm slightly overnight, 33 at my house 34 at Addison Airport. NWS mentions Monday as a keep eye on for potential snow chance closer to River River. This far out that is enough to provide hope. I’m not giving up yet.

Yep if that wave can be a touch stronger there is potential. Prob our best shot at pure snow all winter. I always prefer to have cold in place and hope for moisture/lift.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6485 Postby rwfromkansas » Fri Mar 01, 2019 8:27 am

Texas Snow wrote:
rwfromkansas wrote:Temp is currently 33, but wet bulb is about 32 based on the rules with warm ground I found on a weather site, so I don’t expect any freezing issues.


What rules? can you share a link? Per my questions above I would be fascinated to learn more winter forecasting tips on this “last night of winter”

I’ve got 31.6 now but the decline is slowing. Dew point 27.6

Addison 31 with dew point 26. Forecast still says low 34.


http://theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/170/

It worked out nicely. I used to just rely on the dew point, but the temp rarely falls all the way to that. Heck, it only fell a few tenths of a degree after my post and then is rising this morning.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6486 Postby Ntxw » Fri Mar 01, 2019 8:48 am

Kind of disappointing we didn't see snow the past few days with the temp bust. Never got above 40 once front blew in. And note the 50s ans 60s are gone from the forecast replaced by 40s and maybe top just above freezing Monday. Maybe we'll get a longshot surprise to end a poor winter snow wise.

Feb for DFW ended up +0.3 which is about normal. The second half the month brought it way down after starting well over 10F+ the first week. The winter ends up a degree or so above normal. It is the coolest winter since 2014-2015 but still above.

Spring thread is OPEN. If discussion is about the cold snap and associated events we can keep it here. All else should go over there.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6487 Postby wxman57 » Fri Mar 01, 2019 9:02 am

Ntxw wrote:Kind of disappointing we didn't see snow the past few days with the temp bust. Never got above 40 once front blew in. And note the 50s ans 60s are gone from the forecast replaced by 40s and maybe top just above freezing Monday. Maybe we'll get a longshot surprise to end a poor winter snow wise.

Feb for DFW ended up +0.3 which is about normal. The second half the month brought it way down after starting well over 10F+ the first week. The winter ends up a degree or so above normal. It is the coolest winter since 2014-2015 but still above.

Spring thread is OPEN. If discussion is about the cold snap and associated events we can keep it here. All else should go over there.


That sub-freezing air was way too shallow the past few days. Temperatures were in the 50s not far above the ground. Not a chance of snow. As for Sun-Tue, moisture just looks too limited after Sunday's rain. This cold air will be a lot deeper than with previous fronts, but with that depth comes dry air. Dewpoints may drop to the single digits up in the D-FW area Mon/Tue. True, this may be your best shot at snow this winter, temperature-wise (aloft). You just need some moisture.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6488 Postby wxman57 » Fri Mar 01, 2019 9:11 am

Brent wrote:I stand by my promise of an F rating for this winter with the snowless streak living on it seems

Can't say I'm gonna miss it and I'm honestly ready to move on to spring and storms and hopefully lots of rain


You are welcome to some of our rain. We had 18 rain days in February. Only 2 days where we saw the sun. I think I saw fish swimming in my back yard yesterday.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6489 Postby Haris » Fri Mar 01, 2019 10:12 am

I think FRZ drizzle is possible (here) Mon PM
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6490 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Fri Mar 01, 2019 10:31 am

I feel like there will be surprises for some this weekend, into early next week. The NWS forecast has been trash since the cold has hit, the forecasted temps aren’t even close to what the temps actually end up being, the freezing drizzle the other day wasnt even forecasted. Like others have mentioned, I have no idea why they keep the temps forecasted warmer when time and time again they bust and come in way colder than expected. There’s going to be moisture and there’s going to be cold, most likely colder than what’s being shown. All that’s left I guess is a waiting game to see what actually happens.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6491 Postby Ralph's Weather » Fri Mar 01, 2019 11:17 am

Yukon Cornelius wrote:I feel like there will be surprises for some this weekend, into early next week. The NWS forecast has been trash since the cold has hit, the forecasted temps aren’t even close to what the temps actually end up being, the freezing drizzle the other day wasnt even forecasted. Like others have mentioned, I have no idea why they keep the temps forecasted warmer when time and time again they bust and come in way colder than expected. There’s going to be moisture and there’s going to be cold, most likely colder than what’s being shown. All that’s left I guess is a waiting game to see what actually happens.

Agreed, but from what I have heard their hands are somewhat tied to what the models show without a huge amount of leeway to differ from the models.

I keep comparing this system to the my favorite storm 3/2/14 (also the first Sunday of March). We have colder air to work with this go around. It was in the mid 80s ahead of that front vs 50ish for this weekend. The main difference being that shortwave was just a tad sharper and the flow is too fast for Sunday's storm to go neutral tilt. If the northern flow can slow a tad then we go from a some showers and storms early Sunday to an all day event with plenty of cold air in place.
Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6492 Postby SoupBone » Fri Mar 01, 2019 11:50 am

Brent wrote:okay its March now... why is the spring thread locked :spam: the one winter I'm ready to see end too :lol:


Hmmm, do we go by meteorological Spring or March 20th here?
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6493 Postby SoupBone » Fri Mar 01, 2019 11:50 am

wxman57 wrote:
Brent wrote:I stand by my promise of an F rating for this winter with the snowless streak living on it seems

Can't say I'm gonna miss it and I'm honestly ready to move on to spring and storms and hopefully lots of rain


You are welcome to some of our rain. We had 18 rain days in February. Only 2 days where we saw the sun. I think I saw fish swimming in my back yard yesterday.



Seriously, it's been a nasty, rainy February.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6494 Postby wxman57 » Fri Mar 01, 2019 11:52 am

Looks like the 12Z GFS run input the wrong height for my US/Canada wall. It's not letting any cold air south, hardly. Houston won't even see a low below 40? It was 45 this morning.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6495 Postby weatherdude1108 » Fri Mar 01, 2019 3:41 pm

weatherdude1108 wrote:I bet we have a hard freeze in March, just when buds and leaves are sprouting. Seen that many times.


I called it back on February 5th.

My prediction may come true. :wink:

Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
211 PM CST Fri Mar 1 2019

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-021200-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
Including the cities of Llano, Burnet, Georgetown, Del Rio,
Rocksprings, Leakey, Kerrville, Bandera, Fredericksburg, Boerne,
Blanco, San Marcos, Austin, Bastrop, Giddings, Bracketville,
Uvalde, Hondo, San Antonio, New Braunfels, Seguin, Lockhart,
La Grange, Eagle Pass, Crystal City, Pearsall, Pleasanton,
Floresville, Karnes City, Gonzales, Cuero, Halletsville,
and Carrizo Springs
211 PM CST Fri Mar 1 2019

...Cold Temperatures Return Late in the Weekend and Early Next
Week...

A cold front expected to move through during the day on Sunday
will bring with it an arctic airmass which will settle across
South Central Texas Sunday night and remain across the area
through early next week.

Overnight lows Sunday into Monday and Monday into Tuesday will
drop into the 20s across much of South Central Texas meaning a
widespread freeze for most and a hard freeze for some in the Hill
Country. Temperatures behind the front will be only a few degrees
warmer than our record lows and it will be possible to see some
record low maximum temperatures on Monday.
With gusty north winds
Monday into tuesday wind chill values both mornings could drop
into the teens. Temperatures moderate slightly towards midweek but
another lighter freeze is possible Wednesday morning across the
Hill Country and Austin metro area.

Care will need to be taken to protect your plants, pipes, and
pets. Early season gardens and cold sensitive vegetation may need
to be covered or brought inside. Protect any exposed water pipes
and ensure your heating system is in good working order. Residents
of South Central Texas are encouraged to keep an eye on the
latest forecasts as we update the expected temperatures through
the weekend.

$$
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6496 Postby weatherdude1108 » Fri Mar 01, 2019 4:10 pm

Image
A cold front expected to move through during the day on Sunday will bring with it an arctic airmass which will settle across South Central Texas Sunday night and remain across the area through early next week. Overnight lows Sunday into Monday and Monday into Tuesday will drop into the 20s across much of South Central Texas meaning a widespread freeze for most and a hard freeze for some in the Hill Country. Temperatures behind the front will be only a few degrees warmer than our record lows and it will be possible to see some record low maximum temperatures on Monday. With gusty north winds Monday into tuesday wind chill values both mornings could drop into the teens. Temperatures moderate slightly towards midweek but another lighter freeze is possible Wednesday morning across the Hill Country and Austin metro area. Care will need to be taken to protect your plants, pipes, and pets. Early season gardens and cold sensitive vegetation may need to be covered or brought inside. Protect any exposed water pipes and ensure your heating system is in good working order. Residents of South Central Texas are encouraged to keep an eye on the latest forecasts as we update the expected temperatures through the weekend.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6497 Postby Texas Snow » Fri Mar 01, 2019 4:56 pm

AFDFWD says dry for DFW. Possible light FZD northwest areas Sunday morning with no impact. Not looking promising. :cry:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6498 Postby orangeblood » Fri Mar 01, 2019 5:15 pm

Texas Snow wrote:AFDFWD says dry for DFW. Possible light FZD northwest areas Sunday morning with no impact. Not looking promising. :cry:


Sat behind a convoy of road treatment trucks today in DFW...they appear to be treating the roads for no apparent reason. The lack of efficiency of our government municipalities is a massive problem, how do we attempt to fix this issue ?
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6499 Postby Brent » Fri Mar 01, 2019 5:19 pm

orangeblood wrote:
Texas Snow wrote:AFDFWD says dry for DFW. Possible light FZD northwest areas Sunday morning with no impact. Not looking promising. :cry:


Sat behind a convoy of road treatment trucks today in DFW...they appear to be treating the roads for no apparent reason. The lack of efficiency of our government municipalities is a massive problem, how do we attempt to fix this issue ?


I wonder if they have a budget and since well it hasnt snowed in years maybe they have to use some money? Lol
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6500 Postby Cerlin » Fri Mar 01, 2019 5:30 pm

Brent wrote:
orangeblood wrote:
Texas Snow wrote:AFDFWD says dry for DFW. Possible light FZD northwest areas Sunday morning with no impact. Not looking promising. :cry:


Sat behind a convoy of road treatment trucks today in DFW...they appear to be treating the roads for no apparent reason. The lack of efficiency of our government municipalities is a massive problem, how do we attempt to fix this issue ?


I wonder if they have a budget and since well it hasnt snowed in years maybe they have to use some money? Lol

If that were true they would’ve done it for south DFW yesterday morning
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