Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

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Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#1 Postby CyclonicFury » Mon Oct 29, 2018 10:34 pm

Meteorological winter is still over a month away, but I am hoping we have a snowy winter here in the southeastern US. I live in central NC and am creating this thread for discussion about winter weather in the southeastern US, including the Deep South (excluding Texas since it already has a popular thread).

With a weak-moderate El Niño, that will likely mean enhanced precipitation and colder than normal temperatures overall for much of the Southeastern US this winter. However, predicting snowfall is a wild card, as a couple degrees can make the difference between a major snowfall and just a cold rain. The last time we had an El Niño (2015-16), while much of the Mid-Atlantic, Northeastern US got plastered with snow from that historic blizzard, we only got about an inch of an icy mess. Hoping this El Niño is a bit snowier!
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#2 Postby Ntxw » Mon Oct 29, 2018 10:57 pm

The difference between a cold and snowy winter in the southeast or a cold rainy winter (any winter) is often influenced by two factors. Eastern North America is controlled often by the NAO and/or the PNA. Both or either must be present for lasting cold to add to the wet conditions of a Nino. +PNA is more likely a given which helps drive cold and storms, the NAO is a more tougher forecast and does not always follow ENSO. A more -NAO will help focus cold in the Southeast and often allows chills all the way into Florida.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#3 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Nov 05, 2018 12:55 pm

This morning's 12Z GFS depicts a deepening upper level trough carving itself out across the Eastern CONUS as we get deeper into November. The potential of seeing the season's first true bonafide cold pattern.setting up may be playing itself out. . 12Z GFS this particular run showing potential of a couple of cold air intrusions into the Deep South region next week, Nov 12-14, and another. more potent cold surge right at Thanksgiving time in the longer range. As usual likely more changes to come to all of this of course.

Something to watch as time progresses...
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#4 Postby Buck » Sat Nov 10, 2018 10:46 am

First REAL sign of winter this morning here in Atlanta. After a near-week of soggy, muddy weather... I woke up to a dry, sunny 34 degrees.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#5 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Nov 10, 2018 8:21 pm

18Z GFS showing possible first bonafide CAD (Cold Air Damming) event setting up along the Lee side of the Appalachians beginning in 108 hours. It could bring wintry mix of precip to portions of VA and down into the NC Piedmont. The NC Mountains could be looking at their first accumulation of snow later next week.

More changes to the model run likely to come..
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#6 Postby Kennethb » Mon Nov 12, 2018 7:37 am

South Louisiana Snows and Winter Weather Events:

You and I want it to snow in the deep south every winter. A year ago if someone would have said that it was going to snow here in Baton Rouge in a month from now, we would probably say no way.

However the past 10 years have been an unprecedented period of winter weather for the Deep South especially here in the Baton Rouge area. That includes three measurable snows in early December; Something that had never happened in the previous over 100+ years of record keeping. In fact before 2008 there had hardly been even trace snows in December. The below link has records of measurable and trace snow events for McComb, Baton Rouge, New Orleans and Biloxi/Gulfport through 2010.

https://www.weather.gov/lix/snowcli

My first memory of snow in Baton Rouge was in first grade, 1968 on February 23. That was also the same year about a month later, March 22 and 23 when we had large white flakes, the latest recorded trace of snow here in Baton Rouge. I remember my teacher catching flakes on black construction paper not knowing that the true hexagon flakes do not fall at 34 degrees. Ever since that snow in first grade in 1968, when we had measurable snow, we were lucky to get 1-2 inches.

In 1973 we had two measureable snow events about a month apart. Though there was trace events almost every year after 1973, it was not until 1988 that Baton Rouge had another measurable snow. In February 1988 it actually snowed twice in three days though the second snow was labeled as a trace event. That second snow on February 7 was the only snow that I remember snow starting out as snow.

The above graph is missing New Year’s night snow of 2002 when we got about an inch. That started around 10:30 pm.

There have been at least 3 times when New Orleans has had measurable snow and Baton Rouge none, including December 31, 1963 (4.5 inches), 1989 Arctic outbreak and Christmas 2004.

December 2008 brought the earliest measurable snow ever on December 11. As incredible as that was, in 2009 it snowed for a second consecutive year even one week earlier, on December 4, an event that dumped the 8+ inches in the Florida parishes, about 40 miles east of the airport. There was a second snow on February 10, 2010; Another twice in a season snow.

2014 brought 4 wintry weather episodes to Baton Rouge. Though it did not snow much, it was just as a memorable winter weather event here in Baton Rouge. Incredible as it was, January 24, 2014 at 2 PM it was 25 degrees with freezing rain and sleet. The moderate rain brought some warmer temps, or it would have been a devastating ice storm. We had about 18 hours of the event. It did begin as moderate snow around 12:30 am before changing to sleet and freezing rain. We were just so close to a record snow fall, expect for the warm layer 8 thousand feet above. And only 4 days later it was 28 degrees at 2 pm with more of a sleet event storm, about 9 hours of wintry precip. Then on February 6 we had sleet with a few flakes for a few hours around midday. This would have been a noteworthy event if not for the previous 2. The temps stayed just above freezing, so no accumulation. And then when thinking about a March 4 Mardi Gras, you would think it would be one of the warmest. Yet at on March 4 temps climbed from the upper 20’s in the morning to 31 degrees at noon with a moderate freezing rain. A few degrees colder or perhaps earlier in the season, it might have been a major icing event. Still this was one of, if not the biggest, freezing rain event I have seen here in Baton Rouge. Even worse than the January 24 event. I have seen other freezing rain events over my past 45 years, but not like this. Freezing rain events are rarer than snow here in Baton Rouge and even hard to obtain in January and February. 2014 was another season of one in your lifetime weather events.

And then the 2017-2018 winter, another 2 event season. Both events are not logged in on the Slidell NWS graph. On December 8, 2017 another early December measurable snow. While I had 3 inches here in Baton Rouge the biggest swath was just to the south around Prairieville with about 6 inches.

The second season event was January 16, 2018. The mostly snow line was just to our north, but we had a good mix. It was 22 degrees and snowing at 9:00 pm; The coldest I have ever seen it snow here in Baton Rouge.

What once in a the lifetime winter events are ahead.? Will the wintry weather trend continue?
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#7 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Nov 13, 2018 2:02 pm

Upper Level Low will provide portions of Western TN north into KY with some potential snow beginning late tonight into Wednesday. 12Z GFS this morning is showing potentially upwards to 3 inches in some areas of that region by end of day Thursday.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#8 Postby GTStorm » Tue Nov 27, 2018 7:50 pm

northjaxpro wrote:Upper Level Low will provide portions of Western TN north into KY with some potential snow beginning late tonight into Wednesday. 12Z GFS this morning is showing potentially upwards to 3 inches in some areas of that region by end of day Thursday.


GFS has something possibly brewing for N. Ga. the week of Dec 8? What are your thoughts?
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#9 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Nov 27, 2018 8:06 pm

GTStorm wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:Upper Level Low will provide portions of Western TN north into KY with some potential snow beginning late tonight into Wednesday. 12Z GFS this morning is showing potentially upwards to 3 inches in some areas of that region by end of day Thursday.


GFS has something possibly brewing for N. Ga. the week of Dec 8? What are your thoughts?


Yeah I saw the 18Z GFS run and it is showing a potential. potent southern stream shortwave moving from Texas/ Northern GOM/ Lower MS. River Valley region east across the Deep South and then moving off the Mid Atlantic coast in the Dec 8-10 time frame

Well. that certainly would fall in line of possibly having a typical El Nino type system and there are hints of the sub tropical jet becoming more active in the next couple of weeks.

It will always be a question of timing as always the case, and the depth of the cold air when and if we see such a possible set-up.

It is that time of year to start looking at the models and looking for potential wintry weather fun in the Deep South and it is something to watch as we get into next week.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#10 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Nov 27, 2018 8:40 pm

Looks as if we will see our first freeze of the season tomorrow morning here in Northeast Floriufa. Forecast low temp tomorrow morning is 31 degrees. Right now sitting at 40.3 degrees.

EDIT: It did bottom out to 31.6 degrees yesterday morning. This was the first freeze of the season for my locale.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Thu Nov 29, 2018 7:58 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#11 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Nov 29, 2018 7:53 am

Latest model runs for the time being have dismissed the wintry precip potential for North Georgia and the Carolinas for Dec 8-10. Cold air looks to be too far north with the shortwave disturbance forecast to pivot through the Deep South for the aforementioned time frame.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#12 Postby carolina_73 » Thu Nov 29, 2018 4:53 pm

What about the NC foothills in extreme NW section?.....just SE of Boone.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#13 Postby carolina_73 » Thu Nov 29, 2018 7:45 pm

The 12z Canadian brought in snow to the foothills. The Euro going to slowly cave towards the gfs?
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#14 Postby CajunMama » Fri Nov 30, 2018 9:14 pm

Glad the snow will be gone in Boone this weekend. It'll still be 48 or so and rainy. My Cajuns are there to play football. Geaux Cajuns!!!!
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#15 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Dec 01, 2018 5:45 am

This morning's 06Z GFS has bought back the prospects of wintry precip, mostly in the form of snow, across North Georgia, Eastern Tennessee, and all throughout the Carolinas in 228 hours.

A stronger, polar High of 1042 mb is being indicated by this particular GFS run to drop down into the Central Plains by next weekend. This would be more than sufficient to bring plenty of cold air advection down into the Deep South by next weekend if the GFS is right.


Also, later on the 06Z run, it intensifies the shortwave disturbance off the mid-Atlantic coast into a 993 mb coastal winter storm in 262 hours

Something definitely to watch as time progresses.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#16 Postby northjaxpro » Sun Dec 02, 2018 6:05 am

The past 24 hours, GFS has backed off a little on the wintry precip for next week's system over the Deep South and Mid Atlantic. The +NAO flexing itself possibly again.
This morning's 06Z run sharply backed off on the magnitude of the cold air mass for this system.

Yesterday's 06Z GFS showed a bit stronger polar High pushing down into the Plains, which was more conducive for mainly snow for next week's potential system, However, this morning's 06Z GFS. only showing 1034 mb High. Big difference! Looks to be a very shallow cold air mass for next week's system.

The model is now ahowing a cold air damming wedge over the Northeast GA area, Upstate SC and into North Carolina on Dec 9-10. It now shows mixed precip of freezing rain and sleet, mainly for these areas menrioned this run.

Changes will keep happening with these runs, so monitor.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#17 Postby carolina_73 » Sun Dec 02, 2018 12:17 pm

The system has me paying attention! Run after run now seems to show a bullseye of heavy snow in the NW corner of NC. The euro came on board showing a 12-15 inch wet snow for my area just SE of Boone in the northern foothills. Is this becoming a real possibility?
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#18 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Dec 03, 2018 6:41 am

:uarrow: Latest 06Z GFS now showing snowfall potential upwards to 16-22 inches across the Northern Piedmont of NC and even down into the SC Midlands region. Also, the Boone, NC area is in the bullseye as well. The event is forecast to commence Saturday and continuing through the weekend, as the shortwave pivots through the region.

Now, keep in mind, some of those projected totals by the GFS could be skewed by freezing rain and or sleet in wintry precip events like this one. So, these totals actually could end up considerably lower by the end of the period.

This could end up being a very significant winter storm, especially for much of North Carolina. Areas possibly down into Northeast GA, and upstate SC (Greenville-Spartanburg) may have the wintry precip mix. Later model runs will likely have some more adjustments with this system.

I am reasonably confident now this system will be the first major winter storm of the season for portions of the Deep South beginning this Saturday.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#19 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Dec 03, 2018 12:53 pm

12Z GFS is out and this particular run is drastically different than the 06Z run earlier today.

GFS is now even farther south with the track of the surface Low Pressure, which now is shown to track directly along the Gulf Coast region and across North Florida to just off the coast of Northeast FL near Jacksonville by 138 hr (06Z Sunday morning) GFS tracks this feature eastward out to sea by 00Z Sunday evening. Now, should the first system of reference takes the farther south track and east out to sea, this would sharply reduce the significance of the precip and/or winter precip across the NC Mountains and NC Piedmont region for this weekend. It is a situation that is constantly evolving run by run and no doubt we will see more changes to the forecast.

EDIT: The 12Z EURO run keeps the surface Low just off Cape Hatteras at 997 mb by 12Z next Monday as opposed to today's 12Z GFS, which tracks the surface low much farther south and east. This 12z EURO track would likely favor the scenario of a bit more snow for the North Carolina Piedmont and even Mountains, similar to what the 06Z GFS was showing earlier today.

________________________________________________________


Now, the next big change in the latest GFS 12Z run has the upper trough going negatively tilted and sharpening as it approaches the Southeast U.S. coast by 18Z next Monday, as a potent upper level disturbance moves southeast across AL and GA . This results in cyclogenesis of another surface Low (1003 mb) just off the coast of Jacksonville in 174 hours (18Z next Monday) and then intensifies it to 998 mb coastal storm just off the Southeast U.S. coast. in 186 hr (06Z next Tuesday morning)

:darrow:

This is still a week out and just like this morning when we had the GFS pick up on this new wrinkle, no doubt there will be additional changes to the forecast as we get closer to the weekend. However, I have to admit that if the timing factors and thermal profiles come together in a unique manner, things could get very interesting for some folks regarding wintry precip across the Deep South through this weekend and possibly into Monday and Tuesday of next week as well. GFS showing some potential wrap around moisture behind this Low Pressure system.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#20 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Dec 04, 2018 12:18 pm

Today"s 12Z GFS run keeps the main event primarily late Saturday night through 00Z Sunday evening for a wintry mix of precip . It appears that the Smoky Mountains of Eastern TN and NC Mountains will get the heaviest snow totals, with a mixed bag in the NC Piedmont region, and possibly down the I-85 corridor into the SC upstate region.


The other big player is the Upper Level Low/shortwave moving east-se out of from the TN Valley, shown on GFS moving across Georgia and South Carolina on Monday-Tuesday. GFS is hinting at thermal profiles supportive of some light snow in the wraparound moisture associated with this feature. Something to watch late in the weedend and early next week.

There will be more fine tuning of this from the models with future runs I am certain will come...
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