Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#61 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Dec 29, 2018 7:02 pm

18Z GFS Operational run and GFS FV3 dropped the wintry precip for much of the Mid-South region for Wednesday- Friday period. This is just the 18Z run.

Tonight's 00Z runs of GFS, EURO and Canadian all will be very interesting a bit later.....
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#62 Postby northjaxpro » Sun Dec 30, 2018 5:35 am

Significant changes with the 06Z GFS Operational run this morning.

1. Snow/Sleet mix begins in Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex around 18Z Wedneday. This run is showing minimum of up to 2 inches snowfall potential from Dallas into ARK/LA/TEX region through 00Z Thursday.

2. GFS depicts the development of 1005 mb baroclinic Low across Southern MS. Swath of snow across Arkansas east to Western TN to Southern KY from 00Z Thursday through 06Z Thursday. Snow accumulation upward to 4 inches in spots this period.

3. GFS deepens Low to 1000 mb across upstate SC, and large swath of snow from TN Valley northeast into the OH Valley from 06Z -12Z Thursday.

4. GFS intensifies this system near the DEL/MAR/VA region into a 995 mb East Coast nor'easter by 18Z Thursday.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#63 Postby snowpocalypse » Tue Jan 08, 2019 2:14 pm

I know this ain't the Texas Winter thread.. but come out of hiding. WNC/CNC may have a shot at something this weekend depending on how it shakes out..
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#64 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Jan 08, 2019 3:10 pm

:uarrow: Yes indeed, North Carolina and Virginia have yet another shot a wintry precipitation this weekend as a 1040 mb Polar High Pressure centers over Southeast Canada/ New England and builds down the Lee side of the Appalachians, which of course is another CAD event potentially across that region. This potential event will not be as potent as the Dec 8-10 winter storm across NC/VA, which I followed closely. But, definitely worthy of course to closely monitor indeed! Sleet and freezing rain (warm nose) will probably be the main precip types at the start of these types of events. However, in addition to the cold air damming, the models depict there is an upper level shortwave coming in from the west, which will also be moving through the region this weekend. This will trigger cyclogenesis off the Mid-Atlantic coast by Sunday, and thus a potential significant winter storm/ nor'easter for possibly at least Washington, DC.


EDIT: The latest 18Z GFS run keeps the shortwave moving east out to sea, instead of up the coast, which would keep the snow and heavy weather away from New England late into this upcoming weekend. This could change stay tuned...


Image
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#65 Postby JaxGator » Tue Jan 08, 2019 8:29 pm

northjaxpro wrote::uarrow: Yes indeed, North Carolina and Virginia have yet another shot a wintry precipitation this weekend as a 1040 mb Polar High Pressure centers over Southeast Canada/ New England and builds down the Lee side of the Appalachians, which of course is another CAD event potentially across that region. This potential event will not be as potent as the Dec 8-10 winter storm across NC/VA, which I followed closely. But, definitely worthy of course to closely monitor indeed! Sleet and freezing rain (warm nose) will probably be the main precip types at the start of these types of events. However, in addition to the cold air damming, the models depict there is an upper level shortwave coming in from the west, which will also be moving through the region this weekend. This will trigger cyclogenesis off the Mid-Atlantic coast by Sunday, and thus a potential significant winter storm/ nor'easter for possibly at least Washington, DC.


EDIT: The latest 18Z GFS run keeps the shortwave moving east out to sea, instead of up the coast, which would keep the snow and heavy weather away from New England late into this upcoming weekend. This could change stay tuned...


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019010812/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_20.png


It'll be interesting for sure what happens. I'm going with some of my family to Lake Lure NC on Saturday, so it'll be exciting to see snow again. It would be my second snowfall if the forecast or whatever scenario pans out.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#66 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Jan 10, 2019 12:15 pm

Starting to get close to the 10 day range with this. One of the key things with this evolving large scale pattern is to watch for the split flow of the polar and southern jet streams interacting together.

12Z Operational GFS 262 hours out is showing a potential Deep South ice and snowstorm. This would potentially indeed coincide with a potent 1048 mb Arctic High building down from the Northern Plains and an active southern jet.

I am sure this will change, but this solution on this run does highlight the potential of such an event. Something to keep an eye on down the road.


Link: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 012&fh=264
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#67 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Jan 12, 2019 9:48 am

Well, for those who are eager to have opprtunities to see wintry precip across the Deep South, these next couple of weeks just could be yielded to you by Mother Nature or Old Man Winter.

The 06Z GFS in 240 hours shows a potent shortwave diving rapidly southeast down the polar jet into extreme Deep South area, showing snow across Louisiana, Southern MS, AL, GA and the Florida Panhandle.

There will be many changes with this, but with the major, colder pattern change ongoing, there will be quite a number of chances of these types of events down the road. Keep monitoring!
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#68 Postby harp » Sat Jan 12, 2019 10:07 am

northjaxpro wrote:Well, for those who are eager to have opprtunities to see wintry precip across the Deep South, these next couple of weeks just could be yielded to you by Mother Nature or Old Man Winter.

The 06Z GFS in 240 hours shows a potent shortwave diving rapidly southeast down the polar jet into extreme Deep South area, showing snow across Louisiana, Southern MS, AL, GA and the Florida Panhandle.

There will be many changes with this, but with the major, colder pattern change ongoing, there will be quite a number of chances of these types of events down the road. Keep monitoring!


I'm in south Louisiana. Watching very closely! :)
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#69 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Jan 12, 2019 12:55 pm

12Z GFS FV3 now also shows the shortwave disturbance over the Deep South @ 240 hours.

Mammoth 1056 mb Arctic High dropping out of Saskatchewan at the end of the 240 hour period on the Operational GFS 12Z run.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#70 Postby harp » Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:33 pm

northjaxpro wrote:12Z GFS FV3 now also shows the shortwave disturbance over the Deep South @ 240 hours.

Mammoth 1056 mb Arctic High dropping out of Saskatchewan at the end of the 240 hour period on the Operational GFS 12Z run.

I noticed that short wave...let's see what happens in future runs.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#71 Postby La Breeze » Sun Jan 13, 2019 12:53 am

harp wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:Well, for those who are eager to have opprtunities to see wintry precip across the Deep South, these next couple of weeks just could be yielded to you by Mother Nature or Old Man Winter.

The 06Z GFS in 240 hours shows a potent shortwave diving rapidly southeast down the polar jet into extreme Deep South area, showing snow across Louisiana, Southern MS, AL, GA and the Florida Panhandle.

There will be many changes with this, but with the major, colder pattern change ongoing, there will be quite a number of chances of these types of events down the road. Keep monitoring!


I'm in south Louisiana. Watching very closely! :)

I'm also in south Louisiana and this now has my attention as well. Harp, please post whatever you hear about this possible scenario - thanks.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#72 Postby Jag95 » Sun Jan 13, 2019 2:38 pm

It's looking like the next month might make up for the last warm one we had. Multiple shots of polar air on the way and the first within 7 days now. Now if the southern stream will do its job we're in business.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#73 Postby northjaxpro » Sun Jan 13, 2019 2:47 pm

Jag95 wrote:It's looking like the next month might make up for the last warm one we had. Multiple shots of polar air on the way and the first within 7 days now. Now if the southern stream will do its job we're in business.



Yes indeed Jag. We will have in my opinion a few good opportunities in the weeks to come. It will be all predicated upon timing of the potential interactions of the polar and southern jet streams. Somewhere across the South and Southeast U.S., a significant winter weather. event or winter storm could be on the docket. We wait and monitor. It will be interesting. The southern jet has remained active all Fall and early Winter so far. Let's see if that continues.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#74 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Jan 14, 2019 6:00 pm

18Z GFS is showing a major winter storm across the entire Deep South region as a Low Pressure area develops in the Northern Gulf of Mexico, beginning Jan 23- 25. This includes wintry precip into Northern Florida with sleet and freezing rain primarily being indicated this run early on the 25th and snow across North MS, AL and GA.

Now, the STJ really beginning to roar now, we have something to really monitor now, plus the 1055 mb mammoth Arctic High dropping south coincidentally with the potential developing winter storm. Things really are getting interesting to say the least....
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#75 Postby GTStorm » Mon Jan 14, 2019 7:28 pm

northjaxpro wrote:18Z GFS is showing a major winter storm across the entire Deep South region as a Low Pressure area develops in the Northern Gulf of Mexico, beginning Jan 23- 25. This includes wintry precip into Northern Florida with sleet and freezing rain primarily being indicated this run early on the 25th and snow across North MS, AL and GA.

Now, the STJ really beginning to roar now, we have something to really monitor now, plus the 1055 mb mammoth Arctic High dropping south coincidentally with the potential developing winter storm. Things really are getting interesting to say the least....


But will it hold? Seems like the last couple of days the models have been latching on to something in the deep south for one run, only to let it go the next.

The 18z GFS is the most interesting to date for SE Georgia, for sure...I've only been looking at GFS because I don't know where to go for Euro.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#76 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Jan 14, 2019 7:38 pm

:uarrow: Yeah, we will find out the next few runs if it holds. However, given that we are within 8 days of the evolution of tbis potential winter storm event, I think the models are latching on to this solution with some agreement. Plus, the GFS has support from the 12Z Camadian , which showed a very similar solution in the same time frame.

I can not wait to see the 00Z runs of the EURO, GFS and Canadian runs later tonight. They should be really interesting about this potential.

Oh.yeah the UKMET as well...
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#77 Postby Jag95 » Mon Jan 14, 2019 8:00 pm

If the 18Z GFS were to really happen, that would be some major ice followed by some pretty heavy snowfall in places like Jackson, MS on the 24th, followed by another snowstorm 4 days later. Temps would barely get above freezing for 6 days, with lows dropping as low as mid-teens. :froze:
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#78 Postby harp » Mon Jan 14, 2019 8:13 pm

I'm in south Louisiana, west of New Orleans. That's the reason I am following this thread so closely.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#79 Postby BigB0882 » Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:10 pm

harp wrote:I'm in south Louisiana, west of New Orleans. That's the reason I am following this thread so closely.


I’m not seeing any images. Does Louisiana get in on the action? Particularly the Baton Rouge area?
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#80 Postby harp » Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:40 pm

BigB0882 wrote:
harp wrote:I'm in south Louisiana, west of New Orleans. That's the reason I am following this thread so closely.


I’m not seeing any images. Does Louisiana get in on the action? Particularly the Baton Rouge area?

Yes, there is a good potential.
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