Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

Winter Weather Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6722
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#121 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Jan 24, 2019 8:59 pm

harp wrote:^^^^^^^ Yes, I'm in south La., west of New Orleans. This has my attention. It has been showing this solution off and on. Especially the Euro. Keep me posted on your thoughts. Thank you.


Lots of time to watch this Harp . GFS just came onboard with this potential on.its 18Z run late this afternoon.

Arctic High (1045 mb) in 162 hours over Western KY. Cold air over the Deep South and Lower MS River Valley region will likely be sufficiently in place. Remember, arctic air masses are very stable and shallow. Models have in several instances in my memory struggled badly with forecasting arctic airmasses. These extremely cold and shallow air masses can sink farther southward than the models can decipher. They can really bust temperature forecasts big time!

So, always in these situations, there is a decent chance that the temperatures could be colder than what the models are indicating. The 12Z Canadian was indicating potential temperatures in the teens across portions of the Deep South by Wednesday morning of next week. It was the coldest of the models for the region into next week. However, it is possible it could verify.

Also, we will have to see if the shortwave, if it holds up in future runs, will stay suppressed in the GOM or move inland between 162 hr - 198 hr. Moisture that moves inland during this time period could potentially lead to freezing rain event in areas. (warm nose near the coast)

One other potential is to see if we get phasing from this . If that happens we could be looking at quite a winter storm. I don't see that yet. but something that is possible and to monitor in the next several days of model runs.


This also can be gone too on the next run or two also :D Oh the fun of the models huh?

One thing is certain, it will be significantly colder into next week for the entire region.

I will be watching trends to see just how the models may are handling the arctic air mass next week.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Thu Jan 24, 2019 9:08 pm, edited 3 times in total.
1 likes   
Monitoring the 2019 Meteorological Spring Season from Northeast Florida

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017

harp
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 100
Joined: Mon Dec 31, 2018 12:01 am
Location: South Louisiana

Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#122 Postby harp » Thu Jan 24, 2019 9:03 pm

Once again, thank you for your response. This definitely has my attention.
0 likes   

harp
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 100
Joined: Mon Dec 31, 2018 12:01 am
Location: South Louisiana

Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#123 Postby harp » Thu Jan 24, 2019 9:13 pm

northjaxpro wrote:
harp wrote:^^^^^^^ Yes, I'm in south La., west of New Orleans. This has my attention. It has been showing this solution off and on. Especially the Euro. Keep me posted on your thoughts. Thank you.


Lots of time to watch this Harp . GFS just came onboard with this potential on.its 18Z run late this afternoon.

Arctic High (1045 mb) in 162 hours over Western KY. Cold air over the Deep South and Lower MS River Valley region will likely be sufficiently in place. Remember, arctic air masses are very stable and shallow. Models have in several instances in my memory struggled badly with forecasting arctic airmasses. These extremely cold and shallow air masses can sink farther southward than the models can decipher. They can really bust temperature forecasts big time!

So, always in these situations, there is a decent chance that the temperatures could be colder than what the models are indicating. The 12Z Canadian was indicating potential temperatures in the teens across portions of the Deep South by Wednesday morning of next week. It was the coldest of the models for the region into next week. However, it is possible it could verify.

Also, we will have to see if the shortwave, if it holds up in future runs, will stay suppressed in the GOM or move inland between 162 hr - 198 hr. Moisture that moves inland during this time period could potentially lead to freezing rain event in areas. (warm nose near the coast)

One other potential is to see if we get phasing from this . If that happens we could be looking at quite a winter storm. I don't see that yet. but something that is possible and to monitor in the next several days of model runs.


This also can be gone too on the next run or two also :D Oh the fun of the models huh?

One thing is certain, it will be significantly colder into next week for the entire region.

I will be watching trends to see just how the models may are handling the arctic air mass next week.


What seems to be happening is that the moisture is coming down with this clipper, and when it crosses Lake Ponchartrain, it seems to dissipate. Sometimes the models show it more than other times. The lake has a big influence on our weather here.
0 likes   

Jag95
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 278
Joined: Sat Aug 15, 2009 8:43 pm
Location: Mobile, AL

Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#124 Postby Jag95 » Fri Jan 25, 2019 9:52 am

Hopefully we see some positive trends heading into the short range over the next couple of days. It will be interesting to see what the NAM sees when it gets in range in another couple of runs.
0 likes   

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3778
Age: 35
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#125 Postby Hammy » Fri Jan 25, 2019 5:31 pm

Looks like models are again trending away from my area getting snow. Probably time to give up for the season
0 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
---
My comics.
http://tba.cfw.me/
http://tbakids.cfw.me/

harp
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 100
Joined: Mon Dec 31, 2018 12:01 am
Location: South Louisiana

Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#126 Postby harp » Fri Jan 25, 2019 6:10 pm

Hammy wrote:Looks like models are again trending away from my area getting snow. Probably time to give up for the season


Don't know where you are.
0 likes   

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3778
Age: 35
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#127 Postby Hammy » Fri Jan 25, 2019 7:05 pm

harp wrote:
Hammy wrote:Looks like models are again trending away from my area getting snow. Probably time to give up for the season


Don't know where you are.


Winder, just outside of Athens.
0 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
---
My comics.
http://tba.cfw.me/
http://tbakids.cfw.me/

User avatar
Agua
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1131
Joined: Thu Jul 31, 2003 4:54 pm
Location: Biloxi, Mississippi

Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#128 Postby Agua » Fri Jan 25, 2019 7:07 pm

As of this afternoon, the Jackson AFD is putting accumulating snow into the forecast for Monday night into Tuesday for Central Mississippi. Hate that it wasn't on the weekend where I could experience it. Can't have everything though. It never snows along the Coast, and understandably so. We have gotten some impressive sleet though over the last few years. [ETA - It's pretty hard to get accumulating snow south of about Mendenhall, but it does happen from time to time. Over the last 10 years I know Collins and even Hattiesburg have had an inch or more a time or two]
Last edited by Agua on Fri Jan 25, 2019 7:12 pm, edited 2 times in total.
1 likes   

Jag95
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 278
Joined: Sat Aug 15, 2009 8:43 pm
Location: Mobile, AL

Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#129 Postby Jag95 » Fri Jan 25, 2019 7:07 pm

Still a ways off so I'm not writing this off yet. The 12Z Euro is slightly more favorable with about half of its members showing a changeover to snow into Southern MS and AL. Jackson NWS has rain/snow as likely in Hattiesburg Tuesday morning.
1 likes   

User avatar
MississippiWx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 948
Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Hattiesburg, Mississippi

Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#130 Postby MississippiWx » Fri Jan 25, 2019 9:30 pm

Agua wrote:As of this afternoon, the Jackson AFD is putting accumulating snow into the forecast for Monday night into Tuesday for Central Mississippi. Hate that it wasn't on the weekend where I could experience it. Can't have everything though. It never snows along the Coast, and understandably so. We have gotten some impressive sleet though over the last few years. [ETA - It's pretty hard to get accumulating snow south of about Mendenhall, but it does happen from time to time. Over the last 10 years I know Collins and even Hattiesburg have had an inch or more a time or two]


Hattiesburg had a 7 inch snow in December and a 2-3 inch snow in January of last winter alone.
1 likes   
This post is not an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of MississippiWx and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
MississippiWx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 948
Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Hattiesburg, Mississippi

Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#131 Postby MississippiWx » Fri Jan 25, 2019 9:33 pm

Jag95 wrote:Still a ways off so I'm not writing this off yet. The 12Z Euro is slightly more favorable with about half of its members showing a changeover to snow into Southern MS and AL. Jackson NWS has rain/snow as likely in Hattiesburg Tuesday morning.


Models, for now, are trending colder each run. Gotta hope they keep it up because they have trended wetter as well for Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama.
1 likes   
This post is not an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of MississippiWx and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

BigB0882
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2103
Joined: Thu Jul 03, 2003 12:08 am
Location: Baton Rouge, LA
Contact:

Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#132 Postby BigB0882 » Fri Jan 25, 2019 9:36 pm

MississippiWx wrote:
Jag95 wrote:Still a ways off so I'm not writing this off yet. The 12Z Euro is slightly more favorable with about half of its members showing a changeover to snow into Southern MS and AL. Jackson NWS has rain/snow as likely in Hattiesburg Tuesday morning.


Models, for now, are trending colder each run. Gotta hope they keep it up because they have trended wetter as well for Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama.


The trend is your friend. Baton Rouge calling for a low of 36 with around a quarter inch of rain. If the cold can outrun the precip then we are in business. Even if only half of it turns to snow that would be a nice event for us.
0 likes   

User avatar
Agua
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1131
Joined: Thu Jul 31, 2003 4:54 pm
Location: Biloxi, Mississippi

Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#133 Postby Agua » Fri Jan 25, 2019 9:41 pm

MississippiWx wrote:
Agua wrote:As of this afternoon, the Jackson AFD is putting accumulating snow into the forecast for Monday night into Tuesday for Central Mississippi. Hate that it wasn't on the weekend where I could experience it. Can't have everything though. It never snows along the Coast, and understandably so. We have gotten some impressive sleet though over the last few years. [ETA - It's pretty hard to get accumulating snow south of about Mendenhall, but it does happen from time to time. Over the last 10 years I know Collins and even Hattiesburg have had an inch or more a time or two]


Hattiesburg had a 7 inch snow in December and a 2-3 inch snow in January of last winter alone.



I knew there had been a few freak snows within recent years, that's why I mentioned the heat island known as H'Bush. But that's an extreme outlier. It even snowed 2x down here last year - one time maybe a 1/4 accumulated for about 20 minutes before melting. But those two events were only the 3rd and 4th times I've seen it snow down here in 22 years. Last year was a freakish season.
Last edited by Agua on Sun Jan 27, 2019 6:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

Jag95
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 278
Joined: Sat Aug 15, 2009 8:43 pm
Location: Mobile, AL

Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#134 Postby Jag95 » Fri Jan 25, 2019 10:03 pm

The NAM is starting to get in range now and it shows central and northern MS getting a really good snowfall at the end of the run.

0Z Canadian and GFS are dryer. The Euro is a little dryer in north AL/MS but has shifted the snow line a little further south into the northern parts of the coastal counties of MS/AL/FL.
2 likes   

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6722
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#135 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Jan 26, 2019 7:54 am

Latest 06Z NAM this morning showing isolated areas of potential 3 inch snowfall accumulations in Northern MS. Areas in North Alabama and North Georgia could receive 1 to 2 inches with the polar cold front sweeping through the region on Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Also trace to 1/4 inch snow amounts showing across South MS, South AL and as well.
1 likes   
Monitoring the 2019 Meteorological Spring Season from Northeast Florida

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6722
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#136 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Jan 26, 2019 5:05 pm

The 18Z NAM has expanded the snowfall potential southwest across to Northern Louisiana, where it is showing potential of up to 2 inches there. on Tuesday and upwards to 1/2 inch to 1 inch potential across Central Louisiana.

This is in addition to the other areas mentioned earlier across the Deep South from the 06Z NAM analysis. The polar frontal boundary looks like it may provide a nice snow event during Tuesday, more than initially expected even just a couple of days ago.
1 likes   
Monitoring the 2019 Meteorological Spring Season from Northeast Florida

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017

BigB0882
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2103
Joined: Thu Jul 03, 2003 12:08 am
Location: Baton Rouge, LA
Contact:

Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#137 Postby BigB0882 » Sat Jan 26, 2019 5:32 pm

I wish this could shift a little further south with the snow but I think/assume places like Baton Rouge will miss out and have a cold rain.
0 likes   

harp
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 100
Joined: Mon Dec 31, 2018 12:01 am
Location: South Louisiana

Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#138 Postby harp » Sat Jan 26, 2019 6:21 pm

BigB0882 wrote:I wish this could shift a little further south with the snow but I think/assume places like Baton Rouge will miss out and have a cold rain.

From what I understand, you could get snow. I'm just west of New Orleans in Harahan and hoping that chance spreads my way.
0 likes   

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6722
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#139 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Jan 26, 2019 8:02 pm

Mobile, AL WFO now has included rain mixing with snow, along and just north and west of I-65 corridor in SW Alabama on Tuesday morning.

Also Hattiesburg, MS is showing 60% probability of snow likely on Tuesday morning, with at least up to an inch accumulation possible there.

Hattiesburg has seen several snow events there in recent years, including a report of snow flurries there just in the last week.
1 likes   
Monitoring the 2019 Meteorological Spring Season from Northeast Florida

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017

User avatar
Agua
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1131
Joined: Thu Jul 31, 2003 4:54 pm
Location: Biloxi, Mississippi

Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#140 Postby Agua » Sat Jan 26, 2019 8:41 pm

northjaxpro wrote:Mobile, AL WFO now has included rain mixing with snow, along and just north and west of I-65 corridor in SW Alabama on Tuesday morning.

Also Hattiesburg, MS is showing 60% probability of snow likely on Tuesday morning, with at least up to an inch accumulation possible there.

Hattiesburg has seen several snow events there in recent years, including a report of snow flurries there just in the last week.


Oh, it will snow in Hattiesburg, no question. Accumulations over an inch are rare, though. It takes about 3" of snow to fully blanket the ground.
0 likes   


Return to “Winter Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests