Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

Winter Weather Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
Jag95
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 278
Joined: Sat Aug 15, 2009 8:43 pm
Location: Mobile, AL

Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#141 Postby Jag95 » Sun Jan 27, 2019 10:06 pm

Tuesday morning is going to be a really close call. I work about 30 miles north from where I live, and that looks like the demarcation line for the rain/snow. NAM shows the temp profile riding the zero degree line with precipitation for a good part of the morning in that area. Yesterday it was showing all snow, now a mixed bag. What a difference a couple of degrees can make.
2 likes   

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6763
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#142 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Jan 28, 2019 3:33 am

The National Weather Service has now issued Winter Storm Watches for a vast area of the Deep South region , mainly for Tuesday. The watch extends from Northern Louisiana through North and Central Mississippi, North and Central Alabama, and Northwest Georgia.The watch area includes the Atlanta metro.

Winter Storm Watch also posted for the Tennessee Smoky Mountains and the Western North Carolina Mountains.
0 likes   
Monitoring the 2019 Meteorological Summer Season from Northeast Florida

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017

User avatar
Agua
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1132
Joined: Thu Jul 31, 2003 4:54 pm
Location: Biloxi, Mississippi

Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#143 Postby Agua » Mon Jan 28, 2019 11:17 am

Jag95 wrote:Tuesday morning is going to be a really close call. I work about 30 miles north from where I live, and that looks like the demarcation line for the rain/snow. NAM shows the temp profile riding the zero degree line with precipitation for a good part of the morning in that area. Yesterday it was showing all snow, now a mixed bag. What a difference a couple of degrees can make.

Good luck man. I wouldnt be surprised if a stray flake or two falls over here but being off the immediate coast a few miles, maybe you'll see a little more over there. Wish I could find a work excuse to get up to Jackson, but that ain't happening.
0 likes   

Jag95
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 278
Joined: Sat Aug 15, 2009 8:43 pm
Location: Mobile, AL

Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#144 Postby Jag95 » Mon Jan 28, 2019 6:06 pm

Jackson NWS shifted their prediction for highest snow rates slightly SE to a line from Natchez Trace to Brookhaven to Meridian. 1-3 inches with possible higher totals. Not too far from Hattiesburg. I guess we're about to find out if they can pull it off again.
0 likes   

snowpocalypse
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 16
Joined: Sat Sep 17, 2016 7:24 pm
Location: GA

Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#145 Postby snowpocalypse » Mon Jan 28, 2019 10:19 pm

Amounts trending slightly higher here in N ga, 2" or so. Snow line seems a little odd for the area with this setup but we are at zero so far on the season (avg 8") so anything is something at this point.
0 likes   

Jag95
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 278
Joined: Sat Aug 15, 2009 8:43 pm
Location: Mobile, AL

Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#146 Postby Jag95 » Mon Jan 28, 2019 10:40 pm

I'd settle for flurries right now because I'm just not feeling it this far south. A snowball would be a bonus. All of our snows are borderline, which should be expected I guess. There's always Colorado.
0 likes   

Jag95
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 278
Joined: Sat Aug 15, 2009 8:43 pm
Location: Mobile, AL

Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#147 Postby Jag95 » Tue Jan 29, 2019 8:54 am

The towel is in the middle of the ring.
0 likes   

User avatar
Agua
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1132
Joined: Thu Jul 31, 2003 4:54 pm
Location: Biloxi, Mississippi

Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#148 Postby Agua » Tue Jan 29, 2019 9:23 am

Just looking at early morning news from Jackson and it looks like very little accumulated. Just judging from the pictures, maybe 1/4 - 1/2 inch? That might be overly generous. Twitter pictures from Hattiesburg look like a thin dusting on car windows; only gathering on the lower halves of windows where it accumulated from gravity. Sad. There's certainly a cold, blowing, light rain here in Biloxi.
0 likes   

Jag95
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 278
Joined: Sat Aug 15, 2009 8:43 pm
Location: Mobile, AL

Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#149 Postby Jag95 » Tue Jan 29, 2019 10:56 am

Agua wrote:Just looking at early morning news from Jackson and it looks like very little accumulated. Just judging from the pictures, maybe 1/4 - 1/2 inch? That might be overly generous. Twitter pictures from Hattiesburg look like a thin dusting on car windows; only gathering on the lower halves of windows where it accumulated from gravity. Sad. There's certainly a cold, blowing, light rain here in Biloxi.


Atlanta's running out of time too. I heard that they had cancelled 170 flights up there and that was 3 hours ago. lol
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 18577
Age: 61
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#150 Postby wxman57 » Tue Jan 29, 2019 11:08 am

Those of you in Mobile never really had much of a chance of snow. Beware a GFS-indication of snow behind a front, as the model is not taking into consideration the full vertical temperature profile. Here is a model sounding from last evening's GFS for Mobile. It shows the lower 6000-7000 ft above freezing at 6am this morning with a surface temp of 47 degrees. Snow was melting as it dropped into the lower 6000 ft of above-freezing air. Mobile reported a temperature of 48F at 6am, by the way.

Image
0 likes   

snowpocalypse
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 16
Joined: Sat Sep 17, 2016 7:24 pm
Location: GA

Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#151 Postby snowpocalypse » Tue Jan 29, 2019 11:24 am

Jag95 wrote:
Agua wrote:Just looking at early morning news from Jackson and it looks like very little accumulated. Just judging from the pictures, maybe 1/4 - 1/2 inch? That might be overly generous. Twitter pictures from Hattiesburg look like a thin dusting on car windows; only gathering on the lower halves of windows where it accumulated from gravity. Sad. There's certainly a cold, blowing, light rain here in Biloxi.


Atlanta's running out of time too. I heard that they had cancelled 170 flights up there and that was 3 hours ago. lol


Yep, was a bust here.. temps were 5-7 deg higher than anticipated when the moisture arrived. I'm in the mountains and got an hour of off and on light wet snow on warm ground so nothing stuck.
0 likes   

Jag95
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 278
Joined: Sat Aug 15, 2009 8:43 pm
Location: Mobile, AL

Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#152 Postby Jag95 » Tue Jan 29, 2019 11:26 am

They only mentioned a mix in Mobile, with snow in the extreme northern part of the county. And began backing off of that yesterday. Even then they weren't calling for much.

The NAM did show a profile favorable for snow for Washington, Choctaw, and other counties not immediately on the coast up until close to the end. The only thing I've see is an "UNKNOWN PRECIPITATION" at Hattiesburg.
0 likes   

User avatar
Bunkertor
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3308
Joined: Tue May 09, 2006 3:48 pm
Location: Hamburg, EDDH

Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#153 Postby Bunkertor » Tue Jan 29, 2019 1:08 pm

- 50 ° C Windchill is at the MN border at the moment ( meteociel )
0 likes   

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6763
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#154 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Feb 02, 2019 2:25 pm

So far, it is looking like the North Carolina/ Southern Virginia winter storm back on December 8-10, 2018 will be far and away the biggest winter event of this season for the Deep South, unless we get another potential southern jet stream shortwave that traverses across the region to interact and phase with the polar jet. This has only happened once this winter in this region, and that was for this particular storm. The interesting thing to remember about that storm was that it was only a 1035 mb modified Polar High that had wedged down into the Lee of the Appalachians from the Southeastern Canada / New England region to support that winter storm. It was nothing anywhere near a very potent Arctic High of 1045mb+ for example. Some could argue that this storm was more the Mid-Atlantic region in which the phasing of the jet streams actually occurred.

However, there will be no significant cold spells heading toward Dixie at least up until middle of this month.

The Southeast U.S. Ridge is back and will dominate most of the region going into the first 10-14 days of this month. We will wait later in the month to see if this thread will be put back into action again.
0 likes   
Monitoring the 2019 Meteorological Summer Season from Northeast Florida

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017

snowpocalypse
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 16
Joined: Sat Sep 17, 2016 7:24 pm
Location: GA

Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#155 Postby snowpocalypse » Sun Feb 03, 2019 11:18 am

northjaxpro wrote:So far, it is looking like the North Carolina/ Southern Virginia winter storm back on December 8-10, 2018 will be far and away the biggest winter event of this season for the Deep South, unless we get another potential southern jet stream shortwave that traverses across the region to interact and phase with the polar jet. This has only happened once this winter in this region, and that was for this particular storm. The interesting thing to remember about that storm was that it was only a 1035 mb modified Polar High that had wedged down into the Lee of the Appalachians from the Southeastern Canada / New England region to support that winter storm. It was nothing anywhere near a very potent Arctic High of 1045mb+ for example. Some could argue that this storm was more the Mid-Atlantic region in which the phasing of the jet streams actually occurred.

However, there will be no significant cold spells heading toward Dixie at least up until middle of this month.

The Southeast U.S. Ridge is back and will dominate most of the region going into the first 10-14 days of this month. We will wait later in the month to see if this thread will be put back into action again.


The past couple of Decembers have definitely been interesting in the south. Whenever I feel like throwing in the towel on the season I always harken back to March 93.. it ain't over til it's over. Anyway during this 'lull' I present to you this beautiful graphic from last season:

Image
1 likes   

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6763
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#156 Postby northjaxpro » Sun Feb 03, 2019 1:28 pm

You are right. There is always a probability, albeit a small one, that we could have an extreme anomaly to occur, like the March 1993 Superstorm. However, something like that is almost like a once in a lifetime type of event though.

That storm was just simply phenomenal in every sense of the word and then some!

It is to this day right up there as among the most spectacular weather events I experienced and covered over my career.
0 likes   
Monitoring the 2019 Meteorological Summer Season from Northeast Florida

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017

Jag95
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 278
Joined: Sat Aug 15, 2009 8:43 pm
Location: Mobile, AL

Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#157 Postby Jag95 » Mon Feb 04, 2019 11:54 am

1993, the year that Mobile and Birmingham were both reporting thunder snow at the same hour. Thought it was a transformer until I heard the thunder. That was an incredible storm.
1 likes   

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3780
Age: 35
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#158 Postby Hammy » Tue Mar 05, 2019 1:26 am

We got snow pellets for a few hours off and on, enough to accumulate in the rain gutter and corner of the roof. Interestingly every single year I've lived in Georgia we've seen something at the house, even if freezing drizzle, in March--even if Jan and Feb were unproductive (except 2018 which instead had three days in December)
1 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
---
My comics.
http://tba.cfw.me/
http://tbakids.cfw.me/

snowpocalypse
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 16
Joined: Sat Sep 17, 2016 7:24 pm
Location: GA

Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#159 Postby snowpocalypse » Wed Mar 06, 2019 5:07 pm

The pop-up moisture on the south side was odd. Looking like there is a good possibility this season is in the bank (as far as precip goes) for SE. It's been an odd winter. Can't remember the last time we only got Trace of snow for the season in GA mountains.
0 likes   

snowpocalypse
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 16
Joined: Sat Sep 17, 2016 7:24 pm
Location: GA

Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#160 Postby snowpocalypse » Thu Mar 21, 2019 8:18 am

Anyone have any insight into 73 Southeast snowstorm? Was talking to some old timers recently who brought it to my attention. A foot+ of snow in central/S georgia?! (In places that get any snow on the order of every 5-10 years). Thats bonkers. I was sure they were embellishing as Atlanta's all-time record is around 9-10".

https://www.weather.gov/ilm/Feb1973Snow

Image
2 likes   


Return to “Winter Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests