Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

Winter Weather Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
Jag95
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 276
Joined: Sat Aug 15, 2009 8:43 pm
Location: Mobile, AL

Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#21 Postby Jag95 » Tue Dec 04, 2018 12:44 pm

Looks like quite a storm on the GFS for NC. That is an interesting feature behind the strong low dumping all the snow on NC, spreading 1-2" on north AL after the main event to the east. Should be interesting to watch.
0 likes   

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6682
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#22 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Dec 04, 2018 12:55 pm

:uarrow: Yeah, this is setting up to be primarily a North Carolina winter storm indeed.

The Upper Low hanging back for Monday into Tuesday looks a bit more potent than in previous runs. This feature could surprise many across North AL, North GA on Monday and into the Carolinas on Tuesday. The Upper Low will likely have a pretty good deep cold upper air column aloft , which would support snow if the GFS is correct about this. Thermal profiles looking at the run are conducive as well. It looks quite impressive this run. Moisture looks quite sufficient with it on the 12Z GFS.

Image

You can see the split flow pattern above, with the strong Mid-Upper Low feature cut off from the northern polar stream jet, which is shown across the Great Lakes and across through New England by Tuesday morning.
Interesting also that the GFS later in the run shows cyclogenesis of another Low Pressure by 12Z Tuesday, just off Cape Hatteras, deepening the system to 990 mb by 18Z Tuesday afternoon.
0 likes   
Monitoring the 2019 Meteorological Spring Season from Northeast Florida

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017

otowntiger
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1471
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:06 pm
Location: Orlando

Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#23 Postby otowntiger » Wed Dec 05, 2018 5:06 pm

whats the long range models saying about how cold of a Christmas week we may have in the Southeast? I'm hoping for the first time in several years we could have a sub 80's weather in Orlando for Christmas. But I'm just being hopeful
0 likes   

Jag95
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 276
Joined: Sat Aug 15, 2009 8:43 pm
Location: Mobile, AL

Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#24 Postby Jag95 » Wed Dec 05, 2018 7:05 pm

carolina_73 wrote:The system has me paying attention! Run after run now seems to show a bullseye of heavy snow in the NW corner of NC. The euro came on board showing a 12-15 inch wet snow for my area just SE of Boone in the northern foothills. Is this becoming a real possibility?

Just saw this in the Greenville/Spartanburg discussion. Good luck.
=======================================================================
The GFS is faster with onset and also warmer aloft than the EC and Canadian. Even
with it being warmer, however, the warm nose is still small/cool
enough that it implies limited melting of falling hydrometeors. A
fairly large portion of the east-facing Blue Ridge and adjacent
Piedmont areas should remain below freezing aloft and therefore
will experience mostly if not all snow. The transition to sleet
should occur over a narrow region, with sfc temps expected to
be warm enough outside the "core" of the CAD airmass for a sharp
gradient to rain surrounding the sleet. Sfc temps could very well
trend colder given the strength of the CAD, so an expansion of
the snow/sleet area is still possible on subsequent fcsts. And of
course if warm advection aloft is more effective than currently
anticipated, a wider mention of FZRA could return. In terms of
amounts, the spectrum of QPF guidance has trended appreciably
upward this cycle, as have WPC`s numbers. Our fcst is slightly
below the EC ensemble mean at the sampled locations, and even
further below the GEFS mean. We are approaching increases in the
official fcst QPF cautiously since even modest snow ratios from
these values would result in snow/sleet accumulations that might
be a once-in-a-generation event for parts of the Piedmont
.
1 likes   

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6682
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#25 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Dec 06, 2018 5:30 am

Well, I have been monitoring this set-up all week on here and saw the potential of a big winter storm across the Deep South. It is a sure thing now that especially North Carolina will hit the winter jackpot from Mother Nature late this weekend into early next week!

The latest NWS projections are upwards to nearly 12 inch potential snowfall accumulation in the N.C. Mountains and 6-10 inches across the N.C. Foothills around Boone and Hickory, and Mount Airy areas.

Latest projections are now calling for 6 - 8 inches along areas of the Interstate 40 corridor from Greensboro to Raleigh, and 3-6 inches along the I-85 corridor to include the Charlotte metro area. Also, upwards to 2 inches of snow is possible down into the upstate SC region down into Greenville/Spartanburg, but this region will see a lot.of sleet/freezing rain mixed in based on forecast thermal profiles and anticipated warm nose impact at the mid levels on Saturday night into Sunday. But, this will be watched closely. Keep in mind GFS model projection is showing even higher snowfall amounts upwards to a foot of snow across the NW NC Piedmont region. This would be incredible if the GFS projections verify as opposed to NWS forecasts.

Next, this morning"s 06Z GFS has delayed the next event another 6-12 hours with regards to the very potent Upper Level Low moving in behind the main system beginning Monday. Rain/snow is possible across extreme North Georgia and into portions of the SC Midlands late Monday through early Tuesday as the potent Upper Low traverses through the region. GFS now has cyclogenesis of another Low Pressure area just off shore of Wilmington, NC by early 12Z Tuesday morning, and if the Low forms close to the coast and cold air locked in place already, more snowfall across the Eastern NC and Piedmont is definitely possibly up until Tuesday evening, as this Low Pressure area finally moves off the Mid-Atlantic coast by 06Z Wednesday.

Suffice it to say, a huge winter storm potentially for the ages is in store for especially North Carolina and more fine tuning of details coming as we approach this weekend.
0 likes   
Monitoring the 2019 Meteorological Spring Season from Northeast Florida

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6682
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#26 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:32 am

Latest 12Z GFS through 84 hours has updated snowfall projections, which generally has up to 15 inches in portions of the NC Mountains and Foothills and the Northern NC Piedmont regions. It is also showing upward to 11 inches in parts of Southern Virginia. GFS is showing potentially up to 6 inches for Charlotte metro area. I am certain this will b e updated at least once or twice more before the event commences late Saturday and Saturday night.


Image

Meanwhile, this morning's 12Z NAM going out 84 hours shows upward to near 1 foot of snowfall all across Charlotte metro and up across the Foothills into the Central NC Piedmont region as well. It also shows a potential significant snowfall event across the much of South Carolina as far south as Columbia, where upwards to 6 inches is being shown down that region. ( Note: Some of these accumulating totals may be skewed though with sleet)

[
Last edited by northjaxpro on Thu Dec 06, 2018 5:25 pm, edited 4 times in total.
0 likes   
Monitoring the 2019 Meteorological Spring Season from Northeast Florida

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017

User avatar
PTrackerLA
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4873
Age: 35
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 8:40 pm
Location: Lafayette, LA

Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#27 Postby PTrackerLA » Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:38 am

northjaxpro wrote:Latest 12Z GFS through 84 hours has updated snowfall projections, which generally has up to 15 inches in portions of the NC Mountains and Foothills and the Northern NC Piedmont regions. Also showing upward to 11 inches in parts of Southern Virginia. GFS is showing potentially up to 6 inches for Charlotte metro area. I am certain this will b e updated at least once or twice more before the event commences late Saturday and Saturday night.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018120612/gfs_asnow_seus_15.png


Looks more like an inch for Charlotte on the 12z GFS. I have a good friend there that I'm trying to keep updated, but it's crazy how they could easily see over a foot of snow or barely an inch.
0 likes   

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6682
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#28 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:45 am

Meanwhile, this morning's 12Z NAM going out 84 hours shows upward to near 1 foot of snowfall all across Charlotte metro and up across the Foothills into the Central NC Piedmont region as well. It also shows a potential significant snowfall event across the much of South Carolina as far south as Columbia, where upwards to 6 inches is being shown down that region. Keep in mind the NAM model is quite good with winter-time storm synoptics like this particular one, so the NAM may not be too far off the mark here! I really like the NAM in situations like this.

Again more updates to this as time progresses I am sure. (Note: Remember on this NAM run, some of these accumulations may be skewed by sleet and freezing rain)

Image
Last edited by northjaxpro on Thu Dec 06, 2018 4:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes   
Monitoring the 2019 Meteorological Spring Season from Northeast Florida

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6682
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#29 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Dec 06, 2018 12:08 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:Latest 12Z GFS through 84 hours has updated snowfall projections, which generally has up to 15 inches in portions of the NC Mountains and Foothills and the Northern NC Piedmont regions. Also showing upward to 11 inches in parts of Southern Virginia. GFS is showing potentially up to 6 inches for Charlotte metro area. I am certain this will b e updated at least once or twice more before the event commences late Saturday and Saturday night.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018120612/gfs_asnow_seus_15.png


Looks more like an inch for Charlotte on the 12z GFS. I have a good friend there that I'm trying to keep updated, but it's crazy how they could easily see over a foot of snow or barely an inch.


Based on the 12Z NAM projection, I definitely am inclined to reason GFS is closer to upwards to 6 inches for Charlotte metro. I have interests and family that lives in Charlotte, and also in Raleigh and Fayetteville, NC. This is why I am very interested with the particulars of this storm in the next few days. This is a near ideal set-up for a big winter storm for North Carolina: Cold air will be locked in placed along the Lee of the Appalachins, a very moist southern stream jet, far south track of Low Pressure, and a potent cold pool Upper Low/disturbance on the back side of parent surface Low on Monday - Tuesday. The dynamics are definitely in place for this to potentially be a memorable winter storm for many in North Carolina when it is all said and done.

This is still varying from run to run and more updates will follow I am sure...
Last edited by northjaxpro on Thu Dec 06, 2018 12:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes   
Monitoring the 2019 Meteorological Spring Season from Northeast Florida

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017

Raebie
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 773
Joined: Fri Sep 12, 2003 8:00 pm
Location: Charlotte, NC

Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#30 Postby Raebie » Thu Dec 06, 2018 12:25 pm

northjaxpro wrote:
PTrackerLA wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:Latest 12Z GFS through 84 hours has updated snowfall projections, which generally has up to 15 inches in portions of the NC Mountains and Foothills and the Northern NC Piedmont regions. Also showing upward to 11 inches in parts of Southern Virginia. GFS is showing potentially up to 6 inches for Charlotte metro area. I am certain this will b e updated at least once or twice more before the event commences late Saturday and Saturday night.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018120612/gfs_asnow_seus_15.png


Looks more like an inch for Charlotte on the 12z GFS. I have a good friend there that I'm trying to keep updated, but it's crazy how they could easily see over a foot of snow or barely an inch.


Based on the 12Z NAM projection, I definitely am inclined to reason GFS is closer to upwards to 6 inches for Charlotte metro. I have interests and family that lives in Charlotte, and also in Raleigh and Fayetteville, NC. This is why I am very interested with the particulars of this storm in the next few days. This is a near ideal set-up for a big winter storm for North Carolina: Cold air in place, a very moist southern stream jet, far south track of Low Pressure and a potent cold pool Upper Low/disturbance on the back side of parent surface Low on Monday - Tuesday. The dynamics are definitely in place for this to potentially be a memorable winter storm for many in North Carolina when it is all said and done.

This is still varying from run to run and more updates will follow I am sure...


Thanks so much for your updates, I've been following them since I'm here in Charlotte. :-)
0 likes   

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6682
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#31 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Dec 06, 2018 12:41 pm

:uarrow: You are welcome Raebie..

I would be inclined to think that you are hopefully prepping for the big storm late this weekend into early next week!

Latest 12Z GFS shows the cut-off potent Mid-Upper Low slowly traversing through Georgia and South Carolina (base of trough) in 120 hours (12Z Tuesday morning) It still has yet to clear the Southeast U.S. Atlantic seaboard at this juncture.

Image
0 likes   
Monitoring the 2019 Meteorological Spring Season from Northeast Florida

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017

Raebie
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 773
Joined: Fri Sep 12, 2003 8:00 pm
Location: Charlotte, NC

Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#32 Postby Raebie » Thu Dec 06, 2018 12:48 pm

Yep, hitting the store this afternoon. Oil lamps filled and ready along with firewood. My biggest concern is the mix and ice...I still remember the ice storm that hit us this time of year around 8 years ago. We were without power for almost a week.

My biggest nightmare...
0 likes   

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6682
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#33 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Dec 06, 2018 1:02 pm

Yeah, it appears that the cold air on the 12Z runs of both the GFS and NAM appear to be definitely sufficiently cold enough both at the mid and upper levels wedged down the Lee side of the Appalachians (1034 mb High) The thermal profiles mostly seem to favor snow for this event. I know for most CAD(cold air damming) events like these, you always have a warm nose layer over the cold air dome which typically leads to sleet and freezing rain in a lot of instances.

I examined the thermal profiles and there may be areas of sleet at times mixing in across some areas, especially Saturday night and early Sunday during the start of the event. However, from about 12Z Sunday through about 06Z Monday morning, profiles looks to be mostly all snow in most instances throughout the region. Looking ahead later on Monday through Tuesday evening, the Mid-Upper Low pivots through the region, and that will provide more light snow across the area before finally coming to an end. This upper Low is finally forecast to move off the NC/SC coast by late Tuesday/early Wednesday.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Thu Dec 06, 2018 1:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes   
Monitoring the 2019 Meteorological Spring Season from Northeast Florida

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017

Raebie
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 773
Joined: Fri Sep 12, 2003 8:00 pm
Location: Charlotte, NC

Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#34 Postby Raebie » Thu Dec 06, 2018 1:07 pm

northjaxpro wrote:Yeah, it appears that the cold air on the 12Z runs of both the GFS and NAM appear to be definitely sufficiently cold enough both at the mid and upper levels wedged down the Lee side of the Appalachians (1034 mb High) The thermal profiles mostly seem to favor snow for this event. I know for most CAD(cold air damming) events like these, you always have a warm nose layer over the cold air dome which typically leads to sleet and freezing rain in a lot of instances.

I examined the thermal profiles and there may be areas of sleet at times mixing in across some areas, especially Saturday night and early Sunday during the start of the event. However, from about 12Z Sunday through about 06Z Monday morning, profiles looks to be mostly all snow in most instances throughout the region. Looking ahead later on Monday through Tuesday evening, the Mid-Upper Low pivots through the region, and that will provide more light snow across the area before finally coming to an end when that upper Low finally moves off the NC/SC coast by late Tuesday/early Wednesday.


From your lips to God's ear. :-)
0 likes   

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6682
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#35 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Dec 06, 2018 1:53 pm

Interesting thing to watch into early next week:

Asheville, NC may have over a foot of snow accumulation from this upcoming event. They have had a total of 12 storms in their history dating back to 1869 to produce 12 + inches. The last one being of course the great March 1993 Superstorm, which gave Asheville a record 18.2 inches.

This storm has a potential to rival that of the March 1993 Superstorm across the NC Mountains. This alone shows just how big this particular storm could become when its all done by Tuesday evening.

______________________________________________________

Cold air damming (CAD) looks strong in the latest runs. There could be potential of sleet and freezing rain outside of the mountains across extreme North and Northeast Georgia, and portions of the upstate SC area for Sunday into early Monday morning with this very potent winter storm into early next week.
1 likes   
Monitoring the 2019 Meteorological Spring Season from Northeast Florida

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6682
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#36 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Dec 06, 2018 4:39 pm

As I expected, Winter Storm Watch has now been posted by the National Weather Service Forecast Office from Greenville/Spartanburg. This office handles the forecast zone for the Upstate South Carolina region and Western NC Piedmont area, which includes the Charlotte metro. They are projecting in this region 3-11 inches of potential snowfall at this time from Saturday night through Monday morning.

Also, the NWS Asheville WFO also followed suit with a Winter Storm Watch for the NC Mountains.
____________________________________________________


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
405 PM EST Thu Dec 6 2018

...MAJOR WINTER STORM ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...

....WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow and sleet
accumulations of 3 to 11 inches are possible, along with a light
glaze of ice.

* WHERE...Portions of piedmont and western North Carolina, east of
the Blue Ridge.

* WHEN...From Saturday evening through Monday morning.


* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could become very difficult or even
impossible. Road conditions could deteriorate as early as
Saturday night, with highway travel continuing to be impacted
through early next week. Visibility may drop to less than a half
mile during periods of heavy snow. Widespread, prolonged power
outages are possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant
snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue
to monitor the latest forecasts.

&&

$$
Wimberley





Hazardous Weather Outlook
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
544 AM EST Thu Dec 6 2018

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510-SCZ005>009-071045-
Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-
Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-
Eastern McDowell-Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-Greater Pickens-
Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
544 AM EST Thu Dec 6 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the foothills and western
Piedmont of North Carolina, and the northern Upstate of South
Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Confidence is increasing that a winter storm will develop this
weekend across the region, with the potential to produce a
significant amount of snow across the foothills and western Piedmont
of North Carolina, and Upstate South Carolina generally along and
north of Interstate 85. Precipitation could begin as early as
Saturday morning over Upstate South Carolina, spreading northeast
through the day. Conditions may deteriorate from southwest to
northeast during the late afternoon and evening. The precipitation
is most likely to fall as snow across most of the foothills and
northwest Piedmont of North Carolina Saturday night and Sunday. Snow
amounts are still uncertain, but amounts in excess of
six inches are possible. Some sleet and freezing rain could mix in
across the Interstate 85 corridor and Charlotte metro area.
0 likes   
Monitoring the 2019 Meteorological Spring Season from Northeast Florida

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3777
Age: 35
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#37 Postby Hammy » Fri Dec 07, 2018 2:59 am

What's Winder area looking at? It seems like the models are backing off north with the snow line on the simulated radar/rainfall rate maps (in fact most show nothing but rain outside the higher mountains in NE Georgia) but the snow accumulation maps are telling a slightly different story with the snow line being to the south.
0 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
---
My comics.
http://tba.cfw.me/
http://tbakids.cfw.me/

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6682
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#38 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Dec 07, 2018 5:59 am

The highest elevations in the mountsins will see the accumulating snowfall beginning Sunday.

It looks like outside of the areas of the extreme Northeast Georgia mountains, it appears for now the cold air damming will strengthen down into the area. Temps look to get to around the mid 30s by Monnday morning across the region. However, temps could still drop down to near the freeze mark, so the Winder area could see mixed bag of wintry precipitation, as well as down into Atlanta metro. Areas along and north of Interstate 85 during Monday could have this all during Monday.
These cold air damming events are always challenging forecasts.

A very strong Mid-Upper trough will move through Monday night into Tuesday . The colder air column with this system will likely give Winder and all other areas of North and even portions of Central Georgia a decent chance of light rain\snow. during this period.
0 likes   
Monitoring the 2019 Meteorological Spring Season from Northeast Florida

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6682
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#39 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Dec 08, 2018 1:05 am

Winter Storm Warning now in effect from NWS

Powerful winter storm right on schedule to impact the Southeast U.S. , Southern Appalachians ans the North Carolina Piedmont and Foothills .

NWS now calling for 3-10 inches of snowfall for areas along the Interstate 85 corridor from Charlotte metro north to Greensboro., 10-16 inches across the adjacent Foothills and NW Piedmont area, which include Boone, Hickory and Mount Airy.

NWS projecting 14-20 inches possible across the NC Mountains.Also, there could be up to 1/4 of an inch of ice accumulation along portions of the I-85 corridor and 1/10 of an inch of ice accumulation along Interstate 40 corridor.
0 likes   
Monitoring the 2019 Meteorological Spring Season from Northeast Florida

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6682
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#40 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Dec 08, 2018 11:18 am

The latest 12Z GFS run this morning with the updated snowfall projections through 78 hours (12Z Tuesday morning) The model showing upwards to near 2 feet in the NC Mountains, and upwards to near a foot of snow across the NC Foothills. This run shows a very broad area of 4 - 8 inches across much of the NC Piedmont region including Charlotte metro and Raleigh /Durham metro areas.

Image
0 likes   
Monitoring the 2019 Meteorological Spring Season from Northeast Florida

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017


Return to “Winter Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests