Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

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Jag95
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#81 Postby Jag95 » Mon Jan 14, 2019 10:09 pm

BigB0882 wrote:
harp wrote:I'm in south Louisiana, west of New Orleans. That's the reason I am following this thread so closely.


I’m not seeing any images. Does Louisiana get in on the action? Particularly the Baton Rouge area?


Looks like most of it in the first storm on the 24th stays just to the north of the coast (including BR, but barely), but the FV3 puts down around 3 inches in your area for the second storm on the 29th. Storm track means everything especially near the coast (warm noses kill us), but cold air will be close by. Really doesn't mean much 10 days out, but it'll be fun watching the models for the next few days.

I see where Jackson already put rain/snow likely in their Saturday night forecast.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#82 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Jan 14, 2019 10:27 pm

:uarrow: It will be very interesting tracking the evolution of these shortwaves moving along the southern jet overriding the cold arctic air . Timing is everything and it is a question of how everything lines up.

I will say this. These next several weeks for people living across the Deep South are potentially going be living out a winter weather lover's dream :D

There are going to be quite a number of chances to have these events given the incredible cold pattern and the active STJ.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#83 Postby snowpocalypse » Tue Jan 15, 2019 11:42 pm

^ Let's hope so!! Deep south winters are something special.. sometimes a large southeast event makes it difficult to decide which direction to head. 2-3" snowfalls in areas that rarely see it feel more otherwordly than larger totals across the northern tier of dixie. I was out in Cali last winter.. and brushed off the coastal GA/SC snowstorm thinking it would be a bust.. felt remorse the next morning.. caught the first flight out to Charlotte.. 9 hr drive to Savannah on an iced over I-95. Freakish temps in the low teens that AM. Seeing River St completely dead and frozen over was worth it.. amazing and rare sight.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#84 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Jan 16, 2019 5:20 am

snowpocalypse wrote:^ Let's hope so!! Deep south winters are something special.. sometimes a large southeast event makes it difficult to decide which direction to head. 2-3" snowfalls in areas that rarely see it feel more otherwordly than larger totals across the northern tier of dixie. I was out in Cali last winter.. and brushed off the coastal GA/SC snowstorm thinking it would be a bust.. felt remorse the next morning.. caught the first flight out to Charlotte.. 9 hr drive to Savannah on an iced over I-95. Freakish temps in the low teens that AM. Seeing River St completely dead and frozen over was worth it.. amazing and rare sight.


Yeah, I forecasted the complete evolution of that amazing winter storm right here on Deep South and Florida Weather threads and took a road trip up into Darien, GA , just south of Savannah, to track and see the winter storm last year. It was a great experience!
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#85 Postby Jag95 » Fri Jan 18, 2019 6:40 pm

With the inconsistency of the model predictions over 7 days out, I normally wouldn't fall for a 200+ hr forecast. But, the latest runs of the GFS, FV3, Euro, and Canadian all show a very cold pattern for the last week of January. Could this be it? The GFS has a 1060 high parked over Saskatchewan at 240 hrs and even has snow 100 miles out in the Gulf on the 18Z. Jax?
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#86 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Jan 18, 2019 8:08 pm

Jag95 wrote:With the inconsistency of the model predictions over 7 days out, I normally wouldn't fall for a 200+ hr forecast. But, the latest runs of the GFS, FV3, Euro, and Canadian all show a very cold pattern for the last week of January. Could this be it? The GFS has a 1060 high parked over Saskatchewan at 240 hrs and even has snow 100 miles out in the Gulf on the 18Z. Jax?



This massive polar air pattern shift is finally underway!! This extremely anomalous pattern most definitely not only has the potential to bring wintry precip to the Southern tier CONUS and Southeast U.S., but potential several opportunities for this to occur over the next few weeks.

The huge challenge is timing these disturbances traversing both along the southern stream jet and the polar jet. This is why with such an extreme pattern like this one, I would not be confident on forecasting anything solidly past 4 or five days. It is a very progressive pattern indeed. However, this is why I love weather. I live for potential extreme events like this during winter and of course tropical cyclone season the other 6 months when that is occuring.

I think there may be an instance or two in which both jets will phase together and possibly organize even a couple major winter storms in the coming weeks.

I took a look at the EURO and Canadian models earlier this afternoon. The 18Z GFS also is beginning to come into agreement with these other models as well with regards to the overall evolution of the large scaled pattern. The huge attention grabber was the 12Z EURO leading the way in showing the Polar Vortex displaced farther south down into the Mid-Mississippi River Valley region by January 26. That is just one model run. I want to wait on consistency to continue from the models on this for at least the next 3 to 4 days. However, it does show the potential of just how serious this cold outbreak could be as we near the end of January. I will be looking to see if ths continues over the next few days with general consensus going out through 200 hours or so from now.

We are potentially looking at some seiously extreme cold anomalies I have not seen in a very long time. The potential arctic pool of air that will be over most of Canada is just brutal. Some of, or even the coldest air on this planet will be likely taking a home over much of North America in the coming weeks, if the reliable global models and ensembles are all correct.

Lots to monitor and analyze in the days to come. Obviously, we have some very interesting potential weather ahead.......
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#87 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Jan 19, 2019 12:19 pm

Both the 12Z GFS and 12Z Canadian both are advertising a potential winter storm down into Southern Louisiana, Southern Mississippi and into Alabama next Sunday Jan 27.

Both models show a very impressive mid and upper shortwave transversing right through the Gulf Coast region at that time.

Let's see if the models continue to have this solution the next few days. This could be a potential winter storm Deep South style in the making.. These forecasts are always a challenge of course. But, that is what makes it all worth it if it indeed happens..
Last edited by northjaxpro on Sat Jan 19, 2019 12:36 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#88 Postby harp » Sat Jan 19, 2019 12:22 pm

northjaxpro wrote:Both the 12Z GFS and 12Z Canadian both are advertising a potential winter storm down into Southern Louisiana, Southern Mississippi and into Alabama next Sunday Jan 27.


Yes, I am watching that closely. Waiting to see if the new GFS shows a similar scenario. It takes forever to run! The CMC has a very powerful low!
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#89 Postby harp » Sat Jan 19, 2019 1:08 pm

The FV3 GFS has the low, but no snow.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#90 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Jan 19, 2019 1:26 pm

harp wrote:The FV3 GFS has the low, but no snow.


These models are going to change a lot the next few days, as expected with such a progressive pattern in place. We just have to patient to see if the models find run to run consistency or not the next few days.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#91 Postby MississippiWx » Sun Jan 20, 2019 10:52 am

We had a decent duration of flurries and even a short duration snow shower last night here in Hattiesburg. Sure was nice to see it again!
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#92 Postby northjaxpro » Sun Jan 20, 2019 12:07 pm

:uarrow: Thanks for sharing that report from the heart of deep Southeast MS.

This is a perfect example of how quickly these upper level vorticity maxes in this pattern can spring a snow shower surprise or round of flurries. Good that you saw a bit of snow this morning. These features are always difficult forecasting . But, it is fun and interesting to see it when these features indeed come to fruition.

There will be more opportunities for something similar to this episode or possibly even more significant winter precip events across the Deep South as we progress in time with this anomalous pattern icoming into place.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#93 Postby Agua » Sun Jan 20, 2019 2:07 pm

MississippiWx wrote:We had a decent duration of flurries and even a short duration snow shower last night here in Hattiesburg. Sure was nice to see it again!

What time was this?
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#94 Postby Jag95 » Sun Jan 20, 2019 6:50 pm

The 12Z Euro shows a low along the northern Gulf Coast next weekend dropping 4-6 inches of snows along the MS coast and just north of Panama City, with smaller amounts between. The GFS/FV3 were previously showing the same type setup, and still show a storm system only a little bit warmer. Bears watching.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#95 Postby northjaxpro » Sun Jan 20, 2019 7:31 pm

:uarrow: The EURO , Operational GFS , CMC and GFS FV3 over these past couple of days all have been consistently showing similar solutions which have a significant shortwave traversing from along the Gulf Coast to off the Southeast U.S. Coast from January 27- February 1 time frame. This afternoon's 18Z GFS continues to show this scenario as well.

They all have been consistently targeting that time frame. This is still a week away, so there will be some updates to this as time progresses.

So for the moment, there is agreement with the models on this, but it is still at least a week away. I would feel more confident in this if it was within 3 to 5 days of the event. We will just have to monitor and see if the models keep this agreement going into this week about this Deep South winter weather potential.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#96 Postby MississippiWx » Sun Jan 20, 2019 8:20 pm

Agua wrote:
MississippiWx wrote:We had a decent duration of flurries and even a short duration snow shower last night here in Hattiesburg. Sure was nice to see it again!

What time was this?


Between 1-3AM.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#97 Postby Jag95 » Sun Jan 20, 2019 8:35 pm

northjaxpro wrote::uarrow: The EURO , Operational GFS , CMC and GFS FV3 over these past couple of days all have been consistently showing similar solutions which have a significant shortwave traversing from along the Gulf Coast to off the Southeast U.S. Coast from January 27- February 1 time frame. This afternoon's 18Z GFS continues to show this scenario as well.

They all have been consistently targeting that time frame. This is still a week away, so there will be some updates to this as time progresses.

So for the moment, there is agreement with the models on this, but it is still at least a week away. I would feel more confident in this if it was within 3 to 5 days of the event. We will just have to monitor and see if the models keep this agreement going into this week about this Deep South winter weather potential.


I agree I don't trust anything over 72 hours, but nice to see some sort of consistency. NWS discussions are starting to mention it, mostly as a cold rain, now that it's in the forecast period. We'll see how this goes.

<edit> I would lock that 00Z Euro run in and call it a winter if I could. 8.5 inches in Baldwin County in AL on the coast.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#98 Postby BigB0882 » Mon Jan 21, 2019 6:06 am

Does any of that snow make it as far west as Louisiana? Would hate to miss out on a big event that puts down snow on the coast!!
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#99 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Jan 21, 2019 9:28 am

BigB0882 wrote:Does any of that snow make it as far west as Louisiana? Would hate to miss out on a big event that puts down snow on the coast!!



Yes. most of the runs since this past Friday, up until the 06Z GFS this morning, had solutions showing snow across LA, MS, AL and even across the Florida Panhandle and North Florida during Jan 27-Jan 31.


However, the 06Z GFS earlier today not only was warmer this particular run, but much weaker with the potential shortwave. The colder, polar air is lagging behind this run. GFS actually develops the Low a bit farther south in this run, and then develops a secondary Low Pressure area off the Southeast U.S. coast. showing mostly cold rain across North Florida and up along the Southeast U.S. coast Jan 28 and 29th.


This is not a good sign on this run for those looking for winter weather in the Deep South. Let's see how the 12Z runs of EURO, Canadian will fare, along with the 12Z GFS later this morning.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern US Winter 2018-19 (GA, SC, NC, TN, FL, AL, MS, LA)

#100 Postby FireRat » Mon Jan 21, 2019 12:23 pm

According to the Weather Channel, February will very likely be far below average, resulting in prolonged bitterly cold conditions in the Eastern US. I don't think I've ever seen a forecast that below average for the southeast before, have a look!...

https://weather.com/forecast/national/news/2019-01-16-february-march-april-2019-us-temperature-outlook-weather-company

Image
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