Texas Winter 2019-2020

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Texas Snowman
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Texas Winter 2019-2020

#1 Postby Texas Snowman » Fri Jun 14, 2019 9:20 am

The 2019 summer solstice is coming up this next week on June 21st and then the Fourth of July is just around the corner.

And you all know what that means - the next season up is autumn and then after that, winter!!!!!!

So let’s get this Texas Winter 2019-2020 thread kicked off with this:

Will this upcoming winter season finally be kind to snow, ice and cold lovers here in Texas? :froze: :cold:

Or will Wxman57 still be all smiles with mild weather in control? :cry:
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2 Postby Brent » Sat Jun 15, 2019 1:28 am

Texas Snowman wrote:The 2019 summer solstice is coming up this next week on June 21st and then the Fourth of July is just around the corner.

And you all know what that means - the next season up is autumn and then after that, winter!!!!!!

So let’s get this Texas Winter 2019-2020 thread kicked off with this:

Will this upcoming winter season finally be kind to snow, ice and cold lovers here in Texas? :froze: :cold:

Or will Wxman57 still be all smiles with mild weather in control? :cry:


Well the Dallas snowless streak has to end eventually, right? :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#3 Postby Texas Snowman » Mon Jun 17, 2019 11:00 am

@BigJoeBastardi — Euro(public) with an el nino into the winter, Very similar look to winter of 14-15 with warm ring in the Pacific, cool AMO
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#4 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Thu Jun 27, 2019 8:27 am

Texas Snowman wrote:@BigJoeBastardi — Euro(public) with an el nino into the winter, Very similar look to winter of 14-15 with warm ring in the Pacific, cool AMO


Lock it in! Keep PNA neutral to negative and we are in bidness y'all!
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I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!

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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#5 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Thu Jun 27, 2019 8:58 am

ThunderSleetDreams wrote:
Texas Snowman wrote:@BigJoeBastardi — Euro(public) with an el nino into the winter, Very similar look to winter of 14-15 with warm ring in the Pacific, cool AMO


Lock it in! Keep PNA neutral to negative and we are in bidness y'all!


Wasn't that year terrible for us?
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#6 Postby wxman57 » Thu Jun 27, 2019 9:29 am

Time to enjoy the greatest months of the summer (July/August) and stop having nasty thoughts about cool weather next winter. :firedevil:

Oh, and it looks like we may be seeing a return of El Nino next winter. Could be another stormy south like last winter. Hope not. Need a good La Nina to warm winter up around here!
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#7 Postby Brent » Thu Jun 27, 2019 2:57 pm

wxman57 wrote:Time to enjoy the greatest months of the summer (July/August) and stop having nasty thoughts about cool weather next winter. :firedevil:

Oh, and it looks like we may be seeing a return of El Nino next winter. Could be another stormy south like last winter. Hope not. Need a good La Nina to warm winter up around here!


Last winter was stormy? Where? :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#8 Postby wxman57 » Thu Jun 27, 2019 3:08 pm

Brent wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Time to enjoy the greatest months of the summer (July/August) and stop having nasty thoughts about cool weather next winter. :firedevil:

Oh, and it looks like we may be seeing a return of El Nino next winter. Could be another stormy south like last winter. Hope not. Need a good La Nina to warm winter up around here!


Last winter was stormy? Where? :lol:


I didn't say anything about massive snow storms in the D-FW area. Very active southern storm track with cold and rain all winter. I think we may have had more snow here in Houston than up north in the D-FW area last winter.
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#9 Postby Brent » Thu Jun 27, 2019 4:01 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Brent wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Time to enjoy the greatest months of the summer (July/August) and stop having nasty thoughts about cool weather next winter. :firedevil:

Oh, and it looks like we may be seeing a return of El Nino next winter. Could be another stormy south like last winter. Hope not. Need a good La Nina to warm winter up around here!


Last winter was stormy? Where? :lol:


I didn't say anything about massive snow storms in the D-FW area. Very active southern storm track with cold and rain all winter. I think we may have had more snow here in Houston than up north in the D-FW area last winter.


Make that the last few years and I'll agree :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#10 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Fri Jun 28, 2019 2:19 pm

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:
ThunderSleetDreams wrote:
Texas Snowman wrote:@BigJoeBastardi — Euro(public) with an el nino into the winter, Very similar look to winter of 14-15 with warm ring in the Pacific, cool AMO


Lock it in! Keep PNA neutral to negative and we are in bidness y'all!


Wasn't that year terrible for us?


No, 13-14 and 14-15 were good Winters. 15-16 and 16-17 sucked.
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#11 Postby wxman57 » Sun Jun 30, 2019 5:44 pm

Looks like a very snowy winter in store for Houston. IAH already had record snowfall yesterday:

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#12 Postby Cerlin » Sun Jun 30, 2019 8:38 pm

I’m not trusting any predictions this year. No matter how enticing or scientifically sound.
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Let it snow NTX!

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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#13 Postby Brent » Sun Jun 30, 2019 10:16 pm

Cerlin wrote:I’m not trusting any predictions this year. No matter how enticing or scientifically sound.


yeah I will never forget how last winter was supposed to be so great... :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#14 Postby Texas Snowman » Fri Jul 05, 2019 7:20 am

@BigJoeBastardi — Euro kills the el nino for winter, sets in motion similar SST look to winter of 13-14, 14-15 blend, Warm fall for US but could be wild winter, tropical ideas match our preseason impact ideas, 70% ave ace
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#15 Postby CaptinCrunch » Thu Jul 25, 2019 8:17 am

"A transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is expected in the next month or two, with ENSO-neutral most likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter.*"

There have only been 4 ENSO-neutral winters since 2000, and 14 since 1980.

2001-2002 - colder
2003-2004 - average
2012-2013 - warmer
2013-2014 - colder
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#16 Postby SoupBone » Mon Jul 29, 2019 12:32 pm

Well hey there everyone, how's it going this summer? :lol:

Anyone else seeing their trees already starting to drop leaves? My backyard looks like it's early Fall already. I wonder what the trees know that I don't. :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#17 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Tue Aug 13, 2019 12:10 pm

Around labor day or so ill really dig into SST charts and start comparing winters and analogs to try and solve world hunger this winter. Last winter i was severely disappointed. I thought everything we wanted for a cold/wet winter was in store for us but instead we had a barbell winter. Cold early in the season (NOV) warm during the middle (Dec, Jan) Cold at the end (Mar.) This is why we we love the weather though, sooooo many different factors go into play and it's very difficult to handle all of the variables.

I honestly dont even remember what the issue was last winter, my memory isn't the greatest :(, but i think factors such as a weakening el nino, or strengthening el nino came into play. While the overall nino was weak, the dynamics that took place during the weakening or strengthening process, through a wrench in things. I will say though, in Houston, we saw flakes in mid November, and the PV came to the Great Lakes. These types of things dont happen during normal winters.

So this year, one thing i will throw into the equation, is how the nino is shifting during the core winter months. It's obviously not static but often we treat it that way.

I will say though, that warm pool near Alaska and lack of sea ice near the Bering sea is looking mighty fine up there.
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#18 Postby Brent » Tue Aug 13, 2019 7:25 pm

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:Around labor day or so ill really dig into SST charts and start comparing winters and analogs to try and solve world hunger this winter. Last winter i was severely disappointed. I thought everything we wanted for a cold/wet winter was in store for us but instead we had a barbell winter. Cold early in the season (NOV) warm during the middle (Dec, Jan) Cold at the end (Mar.) This is why we we love the weather though, sooooo many different factors go into play and it's very difficult to handle all of the variables.

I honestly dont even remember what the issue was last winter, my memory isn't the greatest :(, but i think factors such as a weakening el nino, or strengthening el nino came into play. While the overall nino was weak, the dynamics that took place during the weakening or strengthening process, through a wrench in things. I will say though, in Houston, we saw flakes in mid November, and the PV came to the Great Lakes. These types of things dont happen during normal winters.

So this year, one thing i will throw into the equation, is how the nino is shifting during the core winter months. It's obviously not static but often we treat it that way.

I will say though, that warm pool near Alaska and lack of sea ice near the Bering sea is looking mighty fine up there.


I am so ready :D

The hype last year was unreal and then did absolutely nothing
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#19 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Tue Aug 20, 2019 8:09 am

Has anyone read or heard anything new regarding this upcoming winter?
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#20 Postby Ntxw » Tue Aug 20, 2019 8:22 am

Yukon Cornelius wrote:Has anyone read or heard anything new regarding this upcoming winter?


I suspect this winter will be a difficult forecast and many will be late to put their thoughts. ENSO is neutral, rainfall patterns are sporadic, and Ocean temperatures are mixed.
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