Texas Winter 2019-2020

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Yukon Cornelius
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#41 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Wed Oct 02, 2019 7:19 am

Direct Weather’s 4th winter forecast update. I don’t know anything about Direct Weather or how accurate they usually are.
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#42 Postby Ntxw » Wed Oct 02, 2019 7:22 am

Yukon Cornelius wrote:Direct Weather’s 4th winter forecast update. I don’t know anything about Direct Weather or how accurate they usually are.
[url]https://i.ibb.co/wdVtGnQ/39-F2-CEC7-CF31-4-F53-B524-68-A919-FC67-A5.jpg [/url]


That is basically a map of climo.

I generally don't trust maps that outputs (frigid, worst, some etc). You can pull a climo map and dress it up quite easily with hyperbole. :wink:

Give us some numbers!
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#43 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Wed Oct 02, 2019 8:20 am

Ntxw wrote:
Yukon Cornelius wrote:Direct Weather’s 4th winter forecast update. I don’t know anything about Direct Weather or how accurate they usually are.
[url]https://i.ibb.co/wdVtGnQ/39-F2-CEC7-CF31-4-F53-B524-68-A919-FC67-A5.jpg [/url]


That is basically a map of climo.

I generally don't trust maps that outputs (frigid, worst, some etc). You can pull a climo map and dress it up quite easily with hyperbole. :wink:

Give us some numbers!

Agreed. Over the years I’ve found these forecast maps interesting as entertainment, but that’s about it. Usually they’re nowhere close and constantly changing.
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#44 Postby Portastorm » Wed Oct 02, 2019 9:25 am

:uarrow:

The last few years, I have noticed that even many "professionals" have swung and missed on seasonal forecasting. Perhaps the good ol' Farmers Almanac will hold its own this winter?! :wink:
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#45 Postby Brent » Wed Oct 02, 2019 1:47 pm

Portastorm wrote::uarrow:

The last few years, I have noticed that even many "professionals" have swung and missed on seasonal forecasting. Perhaps the good ol' Farmers Almanac will hold its own this winter?! :wink:


yeah after the last few years I'm not believing any seasonal forecasts...
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#46 Postby wxman57 » Wed Oct 02, 2019 3:17 pm

Portastorm wrote::uarrow:

The last few years, I have noticed that even many "professionals" have swung and missed on seasonal forecasting. Perhaps the good ol' Farmers Almanac will hold its own this winter?! :wink:


It's hard enough to forecast beyond about 5-7 days much less months ahead. Want to hear my forecast? ;-)
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#47 Postby Brent » Wed Oct 02, 2019 3:37 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Portastorm wrote::uarrow:

The last few years, I have noticed that even many "professionals" have swung and missed on seasonal forecasting. Perhaps the good ol' Farmers Almanac will hold its own this winter?! :wink:


It's hard enough to forecast beyond about 5-7 days much less months ahead. Want to hear my forecast? ;-)


90s all winter? :roflmao:
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#48 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Thu Oct 03, 2019 11:13 am

wxman57 wrote:
Portastorm wrote::uarrow:

The last few years, I have noticed that even many "professionals" have swung and missed on seasonal forecasting. Perhaps the good ol' Farmers Almanac will hold its own this winter?! :wink:


It's hard enough to forecast beyond about 5-7 days much less months ahead. Want to hear my forecast? ;-)



It's time for you to go hibernate Scrooge! :D
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#49 Postby wxman57 » Tue Oct 08, 2019 1:55 pm

Hibernate? Found a new snow forecast on Twitter from Brian Brettscheider. Not sure who he is, but here's his forecast. To sum it up "No snow for you!"

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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#50 Postby Ralph's Weather » Tue Oct 08, 2019 2:21 pm

wxman57 wrote:Hibernate? Found a new snow forecast on Twitter from Brian Brettscheider. Not sure who he is, but here's his forecast. To sum it up "No snow for you!"

All-time record snow bordering the no snow area, umm ok haha.
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#51 Postby wxman57 » Tue Oct 08, 2019 2:25 pm

Ralph's Weather wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Hibernate? Found a new snow forecast on Twitter from Brian Brettscheider. Not sure who he is, but here's his forecast. To sum it up "No snow for you!"

All-time record snow bordering the no snow area, umm ok haha.


We report, you decide...
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#52 Postby South Texas Storms » Tue Oct 08, 2019 3:46 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Ralph's Weather wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Hibernate? Found a new snow forecast on Twitter from Brian Brettscheider. Not sure who he is, but here's his forecast. To sum it up "No snow for you!"

All-time record snow bordering the no snow area, umm ok haha.


We report, you decide...


That map is obviously a joke. Plus, wxman57 LIKES snow. So I say bring it on!
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#53 Postby Cerlin » Wed Oct 09, 2019 8:16 am

I try not to believe those maps. Look at any prediction map from October of last year and try to prove to me they’re indicative of anything that actually happened. :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#54 Postby CaptinCrunch » Thu Oct 10, 2019 11:05 am

Cerlin wrote:I try not to believe those maps. Look at any prediction map from October of last year and try to prove to me they’re indicative of anything that actually happened. :lol:


I only believe in what I see on the ground :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#55 Postby Brent » Thu Oct 10, 2019 4:37 pm

CaptinCrunch wrote:
Cerlin wrote:I try not to believe those maps. Look at any prediction map from October of last year and try to prove to me they’re indicative of anything that actually happened. :lol:


I only believe in what I see on the ground :lol:


Lol right... especially after the last couple of years

I have zero expectations anymore
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#56 Postby AubreyStorm » Sat Oct 12, 2019 6:34 am

He we go!

Good morning!

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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#57 Postby hamburgerman7070 » Sat Oct 12, 2019 4:24 pm

I have a question for someone who feels that they can answer this. Do we want to see the AAM rise from its low negative phase right now to have a better likelihood of a blockier winter or is that not a necessity? I am curious about that. That could be the reason why the models are indicating a positive NAO/AO in their seasonal outlook.
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#58 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Wed Oct 23, 2019 11:17 pm

Wanted to share some info I researched on this coming winter. I found 1967-1968 to be an interesting analog year, with the current SST we are having. When i started looking at different SST's, the water was a bit warmer off the coast of Mexico. This has since cooled off drastically, but i don't see this as a major player in our winter this year. Warmer water, I reckon could be bad for us, but this winter, not so much. Anyways, here's my $.02 on what is likely a terrible winter forecast.

Similarities to note, warm 'blob' near Alaska, with warmer SST broadly stretching down towards Hawaii, and cool water off the coast of SA.

1967-'68 DJF SST
Image

Current SST
Image

Temps for DJF

Image


This is a map of the Euro for this Saturday. The last couple weeks, the pattern has been similar to this one. Upper level high centered off the California coast, that stretches down towards the Baja. I believe this is the type of pattern that will be quite consistent for this winter. I think this can bode well for us to have arctic air come down with a trough down the inter-west Rocky Mountain region, if it digs south enough, could create some fun for our region.
Image

Here are some examples from the analog year itself
Image
Image
Image

You can see how this system develops from that particular pattern. I'd expect the upper level high that's prevalent over the California region to meander east and west, when it does form.

Here's an example of a monster high that dropped in around New Years. This setup is beautiful. Do want.
Image
Image

Something to note, Feb for the NE looked brutally cold, while I was going through dates. The polar vortex paid a visit and parked itself over the NE for a long time. It's possible that this skewed the numbers to seem quite cold for the 3 month time frame.

Take it as you will, just wanted to share some of my findings with you guys.

I'm a private wealth manager and not a meteorologist, highly likely these predictions will be wrong!
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#59 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Thu Oct 24, 2019 9:33 am

Interesting forecast video regarding the upcoming winter in comparison to NOAA’s forecast.
https://youtu.be/neYjxOBtasg
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#60 Postby AubreyStorm » Thu Oct 24, 2019 12:28 pm

Hi Amarillo Texas! :froze: :froze: :froze: :froze:

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