Texas Winter 2019-2020

[Cerlin]

While it looks promising I can’t help but to think back to last year. The pattern was supposed to flip mid December...then it was early January...once that busted it was for sure going to be February...and then by then it was over. We knew this December “warm” up was going to happen so I’m not discouraged, but I can’t help but think that the pattern flip is just going to keep shifting back until there’s no winter left. Hopefully that doesn’t happen and all signs point to it genuinely flipping by 2020, but it doesn’t mean I’m not thinking of what’s happened the few years before this.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

While it looks promising I can’t help but to think back to last year. The pattern was supposed to flip mid December...then it was early January...once that busted it was for sure going to be February...and then by then it was over. We knew this December “warm” up was going to happen so I’m not discouraged, but I can’t help but think that the pattern flip is just going to keep shifting back until there’s no winter left. Hopefully that doesn’t happen and all signs point to it genuinely flipping by 2020, but it doesn’t mean I’m not thinking of what’s happened the few years before this.

If the background state was the same, I'd be worried. It's not, at all!

I'm not saying we are going to have a brutally cold Winter, but I'm almost 100% positive we have the ingredients in place to have a headline grabbing cold snap, with some potential Wintry weather in the long run. I really like the New Years time frame to get this going, in earnest.

As of right now (and yes its a ways out), the immediate days after Christmas, look interesting to start stepping down to the Arctic knockout punch.

[CaptinCrunch]

I'm hoping the colder weather starts just ahead of Christmas, but as we have seen with every strong cold front that has come through it had that warm-up day just ahead of it.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I'm hoping the colder weather starts just ahead of Christmas, but as we have seen with every strong cold front that has come through it had that warm-up day just ahead of it.

And right now, Christmas Day is that warm up day... its flanked by cool to chilly days. Go figure.

[northjaxpro]

Just checked the daily GEFS teleconnections forecasts and it is beginning to look promising for colder weather in our corner of the world from the time at or just after Christmas. The PNA is forecast to go positive by December 24 and the NAO is being shown to become negative beginning Christmas Eve.

So, if this trend continues and the PNA and NAO alignment verifies , we could finally be seeing some potential big cold spells by the time approach New Year's Day or at that time.

However, this can certainly change, so I am in the see it to believe it mindframe on this for the current time....

[rwfromkansas]

Don't we like a negative PNA to ramp up storms west of us? It seems like it's very hard to get a -PNA and -NAO, -AO, -EPO etc. combo. Something is usually off.

[northjaxpro]

I accidentally posted this in the Texas thread. Sorry gang. That alignment is favorable for cold in my corner of the world in Florida.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Don't we like a negative PNA to ramp up storms west of us? It seems like it's very hard to get a -PNA and -NAO, -AO, -EPO etc. combo. Something is usually off.

Slightly negative, but not too much. A slightly negative to slightly positive PNA is pretty marginal. A very positive PNA will bring us a dry NW flow and and a very negative PNA tends to target areas to our NW.

In a perfect world, we'd have a version of your set up but not too strong of a -PNA.

[dhweather]

Hang on a second there, buddy. I never said I hate snow. I only hate cold weather. Snow is good to visit once in a while. It's the only reason to ever have temps below 80 degrees. Speaking of which, looks like I may see a little heavier snow Saturday afternoon/evening up in Woodstock. Meanwhile, looking at the current 12Z GFS run, it appears it was "just kidding" with yesterday's 12Z run.

I'm in camp with wxman57 here. 80 and above is how I prefer it. If it is going to be THAT cold, it may as well snow. I'm onboard with a few hard freezes to kill: ragweed & flying stinging things.

[northjaxpro]

Hang on a second there, buddy. I never said I hate snow. I only hate cold weather. Snow is good to visit once in a while. It's the only reason to ever have temps below 80 degrees. Speaking of which, looks like I may see a little heavier snow Saturday afternoon/evening up in Woodstock. Meanwhile, looking at the current 12Z GFS run, it appears it was "just kidding" with yesterday's 12Z run.

I'm in camp with wxman57 here. 80 and above is how I prefer it. If it is going to be THAT cold, it may as well snow. I'm onboard with a few hard freezes to kill: ragweed & flying stinging things.

Exactly. We need at least a couple of hard freezes a season to kill off the bugs and mosquitoes here in Northeast Florida. Problem is, we have not seen much of that for now nearly a decade each and every meteorological winter, due to this very anomalous + NAO we have seen since 2011. I have never seen such a weather anomaly like this for so long, other than the hurrcane less streak in Florida a few years ago that ended recently.

We had that incredible 11-year hurricane less streak unfortunately finally end in 2016. Now, when will we see this non - NAO during meteorlogical winter streak FINALLY end?

[wxman57]

Bad news concerning mosquitoes - sub-freezing weather will only affect the males. The females keep going. Eggs can be laid in freezing weather, hatching when it warms up. Ask a friend in Alaska if the cold weather there keeps them mosquito-free. Killing mosquitoes is not a reason to have cold weather. The only good reason for sub-freezing weather is so it snows, and that's not happening anytime soon. Mosquitoes never bother me, anyway. They seem to like you cold-lovers more.

[northjaxpro]

Bad news concerning mosquitoes - sub-freezing weather will only affect the males. The females keep going. Eggs can be laid in freezing weather, hatching when it warms up. Ask a friend in Alaska if the cold weather there keeps them mosquito-free. Killing mosquitoes is not a reason to have cold weather. The only good reason for sub-freezing weather is so it snows, and that's not happening anytime soon. Mosquitoes never bother me, anyway. They seem to like you cold-lovers more.

Well, thanks 57 for enlightening me and the others about these pests. We need freezes to at least help control the population of them (killing the male mosquitoes), a fact I already was well aware of btw, and a problem which has grown worse with each year here because of our very mild winters in the past 9 years. That was what I was trying to interpret in my post above. So yes, freezing or sub freezing temperatures can most definitely be beneficial to us here in that it can at least keep them from really becoming a major problem come spring and summer here where I reside across North and Northeast Florida.

Yes, I hate mosquitoes and I am a cold weather lover. So there you have it...

[orangeblood]

AO Tank ?

[rwfromkansas]

My hometown looks to get 4-6 inches of snow this weekend, but it will melt by the time I get up there next Sunday.

[Brent]

do -PNA's even exist anymore???

[ThunderSleetDreams]

do -PNA's even exist anymore???

Yes... we’ve had a few recently. We need it to coincide with Arctic air in small doses.

[harp]

The GFS continues to be boring.....

[bubba hotep]

AO Tank ?

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

We need the Pacific to play along as well with a EPO/WPO relaxation. The GEFS is showing signs of that happening by the end of the run and remember that is smoothed by the mean.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Bad news concerning mosquitoes - sub-freezing weather will only affect the males. The females keep going. Eggs can be laid in freezing weather, hatching when it warms up. Ask a friend in Alaska if the cold weather there keeps them mosquito-free. Killing mosquitoes is not a reason to have cold weather. The only good reason for sub-freezing weather is so it snows, and that's not happening anytime soon. Mosquitoes never bother me, anyway. They seem to like you cold-lovers more.

I notice the number of lizards a year after no freezes is about triple that of a year with a hard freeze.

[Brent]

Only thing on the 0z GFS is a flood setup starting on Christmas



the 0z Euro meanwhile has zero rain for DFW through the end of the run