Texas Winter 2019-2020

Winter Weather Discussion

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CaptinCrunch
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#21 Postby CaptinCrunch » Tue Aug 20, 2019 8:51 am

Ntxw wrote:
Yukon Cornelius wrote:Has anyone read or heard anything new regarding this upcoming winter?


I suspect this winter will be a difficult forecast and many will be late to put their thoughts. ENSO is neutral, rainfall patterns are sporadic, and Ocean temperatures are mixed.


I agree, neutral winters can be all over the map, warm, cold, dry, wet it really is a patteren driven winter. With that said I'm expecting pretty much a normal winter here in NTX, cool to start, warm by mid December, cold going into the new year, and warm again by the end of Feburary. Precip will follow the establish pattern as it normally does, but I'm guessing it will be average as well. Might see a off chance for snow, but we will probably get the ice instead.
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#22 Postby Portastorm » Tue Aug 20, 2019 9:08 am

I would add that another element to the unpredictable nature of this winter is the increasing inconsistency of the behavior of traditional atmospheric indices. I've seen this the last few winters where certain ENSO elements lined up with certain PDO, NAO, and AO readings and the end result was something not what had usually happened in the past. I believe climate change is playing havoc with what we thought we knew about seasonal predictions.

Seasonal forecasting is more difficult than ever IMO. Good luck to anyone who tries.
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#23 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Tue Aug 20, 2019 10:06 am

Ntxw wrote:
Yukon Cornelius wrote:Has anyone read or heard anything new regarding this upcoming winter?


I suspect this winter will be a difficult forecast and many will be late to put their thoughts. ENSO is neutral, rainfall patterns are sporadic, and Ocean temperatures are mixed.


Loving the NPAC waters and Bering Sea waters right now!
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#24 Postby DFWLady » Tue Aug 20, 2019 11:17 am

Well happy Summer everyone! :sun: I hope everyone has had an amazing summer! Mine was full of lake days, bbqs, and spending time with my family! I love the warm weather but I am definitely ready for autumn to come! Little over a month away! Then finally winter! I am not putting stock in any winter weather this year lol, last year taught me don't count your chickens until you see them hatch right in front of you lol! But here is hoping DFW breaks our snowless streak this year! :ggreen:
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#25 Postby Cerlin » Tue Aug 20, 2019 11:57 am

I think we all have reason to be skeptical of any winter snow for DFW after how the last few years have gone...but since this is lining up to be a fairly neutral winter, let’s hope we continue the trend of not having trends work and luck out this year.
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Let it snow NTX!

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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#26 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Mon Aug 26, 2019 8:07 am

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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#27 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Mon Aug 26, 2019 3:28 pm

Everywhere is cold or frigid, that's a new one. :)
The setup is so similar to last winter, I'm scared to make a prediction. With my amateur knowledge, I'll give it my best shot again.
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#28 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Mon Aug 26, 2019 9:27 pm

Probably a better and more truthful winter forecast. :lol:
Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#29 Postby Snowflake7 » Wed Aug 28, 2019 3:06 pm

HELLLOOOOOOO ALLLLLLLLLLL!!!! Oh how I've missed our convos for winter! Hows everyone doing and enjoying this very mild summer?? Does this mean what I think it means????? :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#30 Postby wxman57 » Fri Sep 20, 2019 9:18 am

Just checking in here to mention that I've cancelled fall and winter for SE TX this year. I think I'll keep temps up into the 90s through at least October. No fronts on the horizon. I've blocked them. Enjoy the hot fall...
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#31 Postby TexasF6 » Sat Sep 21, 2019 10:29 am

wxman57 wrote:Just checking in here to mention that I've cancelled fall and winter for SE TX this year. I think I'll keep temps up into the 90s through at least October. No fronts on the horizon. I've blocked them. Enjoy the hot fall...
:spam:

NEVER!!!!!!!!!!!! WINTER SHALL WIN!!!!! :cold: :cold: :cold: :cold: :cold: :cold: :cold: :cold: :cold: :cold: :cold: :cold: :cold: :cold: :cold:
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#32 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Mon Sep 23, 2019 10:26 am

Anyone have some analogs i can over analyze for the upcoming winter?

We have weak la nina on the equator. Warm blob in NE pacific, warm water off of California.... Now, all of those things scream BIG fronts coming down, but my only concern is warmer water off of mexico. Would like for this to taper down some.
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#33 Postby Brent » Mon Sep 23, 2019 10:30 pm

winter? I'm still waiting for fall :roll:
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#34 Postby Snowflake7 » Tue Sep 24, 2019 9:05 am

wxman57 wrote:Just checking in here to mention that I've cancelled fall and winter for SE TX this year. I think I'll keep temps up into the 90s through at least October. No fronts on the horizon. I've blocked them. Enjoy the hot fall...



:lol: :lol: COME ON Wxman57 ease up on us this year! LOL
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#35 Postby AubreyStorm » Wed Sep 25, 2019 1:44 pm

Winter is......Coming!
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#36 Postby Astromanía » Wed Sep 25, 2019 1:56 pm

:uarrow: Yeah in five years... but its coming...
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#37 Postby Astromanía » Wed Sep 25, 2019 7:43 pm

Maybe this is the type of winter where only January is the month with strong cold fronts and the rest of winter and fall its so calm and normal, even with higher average temperatures, sometimes when this happens November is also somewhat strong and that's something that I have figured out with years but I don't know why this happens
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#38 Postby CaptinCrunch » Thu Sep 26, 2019 2:10 pm

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:Anyone have some analogs i can over analyze for the upcoming winter?

We have weak la nina on the equator. Warm blob in NE pacific, warm water off of California.... Now, all of those things scream BIG fronts coming down, but my only concern is warmer water off of mexico. Would like for this to taper down some.


NOAA SST Outlook: NCEP CFS.v2 Forecast Nino3.4 anomalies (PDF corrected) Issued: 23 September 2019, The CFS.v2 ensemble mean predicts ENSO-neutral to continue through spring 2020.

ENSO-neutral is favored during the Northern Hemisphere Fall 2019 (~75% chance), continuing through spring 2020 (55-65% chance).*

This subtropical ridge is our current enemy, until it can be defeated there is little hope from the North. :cry:
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#39 Postby Ntxw » Fri Sep 27, 2019 2:00 pm

My early hunch is that ENSO will play a lesser role this winter. The EPO/NP domain will likely be the King.

There is already early signs of that in the PAC/NW and Canada this early in the season with some near record chill/snow in Montana and the high mountain states, following the EPO train.
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#40 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Tue Oct 01, 2019 4:50 pm

Time to start watching the SAI index!
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