Texas Winter 2019-2020

Winter Weather Discussion

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gpsnowman
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2961 Postby gpsnowman » Wed Feb 12, 2020 8:23 pm

Well CBS 11 has a winter mix for next Wednesday.
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2962 Postby Texas Snow » Wed Feb 12, 2020 8:57 pm

gpsnowman wrote:Well CBS 11 has a winter mix for next Wednesday.


That’s crazy. No way I would put that out there yet. Especially off the last model miss.
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2963 Postby Texas Snow » Wed Feb 12, 2020 9:10 pm

TXdaddy217 wrote:I am not very good with ALL the terminology on here and am just really learning to read the GFS and such. Anyways, is the 18z GFS showing a multi day event or am I reading it all wrong. It looks to me like at least 36-48 hrs of possible winter weather for North Texas, especially in Abilene area. Thanks for your help.

EDIT-I do know it is a predictive model and no guarantee.


Not sure how long you have been following this kind of stuff but sounds like enough to know 1) it’s only one model 2) the gfs isn’t the best at these events, 3) it’s more than 72 hours away etc.

But yes that is what it is showing and the Canadian has shown something similar as well with better chances further west from DFW which already looks just marginal again.I haven’t looked at much beyond that except what was posted above on the euro, nor have I even looked at the upper air support etc, but if you are just following that graphic then You are hoping for consistency and for other models to show something similar consistently.
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2964 Postby Brent » Wed Feb 12, 2020 9:13 pm

Texas Snow wrote:
TXdaddy217 wrote:I am not very good with ALL the terminology on here and am just really learning to read the GFS and such. Anyways, is the 18z GFS showing a multi day event or am I reading it all wrong. It looks to me like at least 36-48 hrs of possible winter weather for North Texas, especially in Abilene area. Thanks for your help.

EDIT-I do know it is a predictive model and no guarantee.


Not sure how long you have been following this kind of stuff but sounds like enough to know 1) it’s only one model 2) the gfs isn’t the best at these events, 3) it’s more than 72 hours away etc.

But yes that is what it is showing and the Canadian has shown something similar as well with better chances further west from DFW which already looks just marginal again.I haven’t looked at much beyond that except what was posted above on the euro, nor have I even looked at the upper air support etc, but if you are just following that graphic then You are hoping for consistency and for other models to show something similar consistently.


Yeah it should be noted there were days of GFS runs burying us last week and they all failed :spam: need to watch the Euro and the ensembles(and while there is some support it's not close to unanimous) temps will likely be borderline again
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2965 Postby Cerlin » Wed Feb 12, 2020 9:28 pm

ALL. HAIL. KING. EURO.

and since the Euro isn’t promising, neither are the chances.
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Let it snow NTX!

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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2966 Postby Texas Snow » Wed Feb 12, 2020 9:29 pm

The euro has some members that do look good for Abiline where TXdaddy217 is, much better than DFW, but again even there is no consensus.
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2967 Postby bubba hotep » Wed Feb 12, 2020 9:29 pm

Everyone should know by now to look to the ensembles for wisdom at that range :spam:

The 18z GEFS and 12z EURO EPS aren't that different

Image

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2968 Postby Texas Snow » Wed Feb 12, 2020 9:40 pm

Lol this output is a little different than Tropical Tidbits and sure to drive Dallasites nuts



Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2969 Postby Golfer7575 » Wed Feb 12, 2020 9:50 pm

The mjo looks somewhat more favorable so far for a better pattern later. I would like for all if us to cash in with a big winter storm before we run out of time. At least I've managed to see some snow flying, but no accumulation unfortunately.
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2970 Postby Brent » Wed Feb 12, 2020 10:01 pm

Texas Snow wrote:Lol this output is a little different than Tropical Tidbits and sure to drive Dallasites nuts



https://img1.weather.us/images/data/cache/model/download_model-en-087-0_modusa_2020021218_204_490_215.png


Tropical Tidbits includes sleet and sometimes rain it seems :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2971 Postby bubba hotep » Wed Feb 12, 2020 10:05 pm

I ended up getting delayed and missing the main part of the storm but locals said that it was a pretty big bust based on the forecast. I was able to get up in the mountains late today to run some packed snow trails and we ended up getting a really nice snow shower to top the evening off with.

Image

Image

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2972 Postby wxman57 » Wed Feb 12, 2020 10:08 pm

Seems unlikely that the blind squirrel will find the nut next week. GFS is way out on its own as far as any D-FW snow.
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2973 Postby South Texas Storms » Wed Feb 12, 2020 10:17 pm

Much of central and north Texas had some really nice rainfall totals with yesterday's storm system. Slowly but surely we are climbing back out of drought. Let's keep it coming through the spring!
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2974 Postby weatherdude1108 » Wed Feb 12, 2020 10:24 pm



More than mine. I got 2.25".
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2975 Postby Texas Snow » Wed Feb 12, 2020 11:25 pm

0Z already caving although hasn’t totally given up, yet.

Edit: Looks like it has it switched to sleet now which is also caving in my opinion

Channel 11 still has mix Graphic for Wednesday (only reason I switched over)
Last edited by Texas Snow on Wed Feb 12, 2020 11:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2976 Postby Brent » Wed Feb 12, 2020 11:28 pm

lol that didn't take long another long duration cold rain mostly :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2977 Postby bubba hotep » Wed Feb 12, 2020 11:51 pm

Brent wrote:lol that didn't take long another long duration cold rain mostly :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:


We are doing awesome with cold rain in DFW so far in 2020! Off to the 3rd wettest start on record.
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2978 Postby Brent » Thu Feb 13, 2020 1:37 am

looks like some snow south of DFW on the Euro next Wednesday night

It's official guys DFW is cursed :spam:

Image

Okay now that that's out of the way the ensembles are actually pretty good but it's day 7. The ensembles are actually following climo and snowier for Dallas than Austin :lol:

ImageImage
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2979 Postby orangeblood » Thu Feb 13, 2020 8:37 am

In the 6-7 day range, the Euro ENS seems to be the best route to go (GEFS is atrocious) and see no reason to go with much else at this range....

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2980 Postby gpsnowman » Thu Feb 13, 2020 9:41 am

orangeblood wrote:In the 6-7 day range, the Euro ENS seems to be the best route to go (GEFS is atrocious) and see no reason to go with much else at this range....

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/tx/snow_72hr/1581552000/1582329600-HWvsdagvneY.png

An inch of snow? Yes please. Let's see if the temps can continue to trend colder.
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