Texas Winter 2019-2020

Winter Weather Discussion

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Cerlin
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2981 Postby Cerlin » Thu Feb 13, 2020 10:31 am

orangeblood wrote:In the 6-7 day range, the Euro ENS seems to be the best route to go (GEFS is atrocious) and see no reason to go with much else at this range....

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/tx/snow_72hr/1581552000/1582329600-HWvsdagvneY.png

Something to note about this compared to other past forecasted events is how much of Texas this covers. As opposed to it being localized in certain areas, it’s a pretty expansive swath
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Let it snow NTX!

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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2982 Postby orangeblood » Thu Feb 13, 2020 10:50 am

Cerlin wrote:
orangeblood wrote:In the 6-7 day range, the Euro ENS seems to be the best route to go (GEFS is atrocious) and see no reason to go with much else at this range....

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/tx/snow_72hr/1581552000/1582329600-HWvsdagvneY.png

Something to note about this compared to other past forecasted events is how much of Texas this covers. As opposed to it being localized in certain areas, it’s a pretty expansive swath


Yeah, looking at the upper level pattern...the "backward S" shape to it historically have shown to produce prolonged overrunning winter weather events over a wide swath of the southern plains

The first run of the morning suites (ICON Model) is going towards it...much colder and higher precip totals
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2983 Postby TarrantWx » Thu Feb 13, 2020 10:57 am

orangeblood wrote:
Cerlin wrote:
orangeblood wrote:In the 6-7 day range, the Euro ENS seems to be the best route to go (GEFS is atrocious) and see no reason to go with much else at this range....

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/tx/snow_72hr/1581552000/1582329600-HWvsdagvneY.png

Something to note about this compared to other past forecasted events is how much of Texas this covers. As opposed to it being localized in certain areas, it’s a pretty expansive swath


Yeah, looking at the upper level pattern...the "backward S" shape to it historically have shown to produce prolonged overrunning winter weather events over a wide swath of the southern plains

The first run of the morning suites (ICON Model) is going towards it...much colder and higher precip totals


What time frame is it currently showing precip starting? I fly home from LA for work Weds evening and really hope I don't miss anything.
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2984 Postby Cpv17 » Thu Feb 13, 2020 11:31 am

0z Euro raises an eyebrow for me. Man, that’s cold!
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2985 Postby orangeblood » Thu Feb 13, 2020 11:43 am

Cpv17 wrote:0z Euro raises an eyebrow for me. Man, that’s cold!


Combined with the massive moisture fetch coming up from the Pacific and it should raise quite a lot of Local Pro Met eyebrows. PWATs > 1.0 inch with a 1047+ Arctic HP coming down
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2986 Postby dhweather » Thu Feb 13, 2020 11:56 am

You honestly can't make this stuff up - all around Dallas county :lol: :lol:


Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2987 Postby Cpv17 » Thu Feb 13, 2020 12:08 pm

dhweather wrote:You honestly can't make this stuff up - all around Dallas county :lol: :lol:


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020021312/gfs_asnow_scus_48.png


Too much concrete!!
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2988 Postby Brent » Thu Feb 13, 2020 1:24 pm

dhweather wrote:You honestly can't make this stuff up - all around Dallas county :lol: :lol:


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020021312/gfs_asnow_scus_48.png


I'm hugging the ensembles because these op runs hate us :lol:

12z Euro heavy snow out towards Abilene Wednesday Night

Really :spam:

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2989 Postby Ntxw » Thu Feb 13, 2020 2:10 pm

Not the coldest arctic air mass we've seen but it is chilly.
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2990 Postby orangeblood » Thu Feb 13, 2020 2:20 pm

Brent wrote:
dhweather wrote:You honestly can't make this stuff up - all around Dallas county :lol: :lol:


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020021312/gfs_asnow_scus_48.png


I'm hugging the ensembles because these op runs hate us :lol:

12z Euro heavy snow out towards Abilene Wednesday Night

Really :spam:

https://i.ibb.co/7nC0GnV/sn10-acc-us-sc-19.png


With certain placements of Arctic HPs and subsequent wind direction, there is a fairly pronounced Ouachita Mountain effect that DFW and points NE sometimes deal with. That's the only explanation I've got for the odd look to some of these snowfall forecasts.
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2991 Postby cheezyWXguy » Thu Feb 13, 2020 2:38 pm

Brent wrote:
dhweather wrote:You honestly can't make this stuff up - all around Dallas county :lol: :lol:


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020021312/gfs_asnow_scus_48.png


I'm hugging the ensembles because these op runs hate us :lol:
12z Euro heavy snow out towards Abilene Wednesday Night

Really :spam:

https://i.ibb.co/7nC0GnV/sn10-acc-us-sc-19.png

Not that I like to look at precip depiction this far out, but this a lot prettier of a map than the ones the euro was showing for last week. A week out, I would much rather see accumulations just to our south than 100 miles to our NW.
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2992 Postby Brent » Thu Feb 13, 2020 2:43 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:
Brent wrote:
dhweather wrote:You honestly can't make this stuff up - all around Dallas county :lol: :lol:


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020021312/gfs_asnow_scus_48.png


I'm hugging the ensembles because these op runs hate us :lol:
12z Euro heavy snow out towards Abilene Wednesday Night

Really :spam:

https://i.ibb.co/7nC0GnV/sn10-acc-us-sc-19.png

Not that I like to look at precip depiction this far out, but this a lot prettier of a map than the ones the euro was showing for last week. A week out, I would much rather see accumulations just to our south than 100 miles to our NW.


Oh it's definitely an improvement over last week but I'm mostly nitpicking :ggreen:
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2993 Postby dhweather » Thu Feb 13, 2020 3:48 pm

While there's not a CAT 5 IN THE GULF (of Alaska) in the 12Z GFS, it is interesting to watch the parade of systems go through the Gulf of Alaska.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=namer&pkg=mslp_uv850&runtime=2020021312&fh=282
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2994 Postby orangeblood » Thu Feb 13, 2020 3:57 pm

dhweather wrote:While there's not a CAT 5 IN THE GULF (of Alaska) in the 12Z GFS, it is interesting to watch the parade of systems go through the Gulf of Alaska.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=namer&pkg=mslp_uv850&runtime=2020021312&fh=282


The extremely cold Arctic Air sitting over Alaska right now along with the Arctic HP is what's forecast by all models to head south into the Plains next week. This will be the big variable to track over the next several days!

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2995 Postby gpsnowman » Thu Feb 13, 2020 3:58 pm

dhweather wrote:While there's not a CAT 5 IN THE GULF (of Alaska) in the 12Z GFS, it is interesting to watch the parade of systems go through the Gulf of Alaska.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=namer&pkg=mslp_uv850&runtime=2020021312&fh=282

Yeah read that Alaska is about to get really cold again if it isn't already. I wonder if some of that bottled up frigid air is about to start heading south towards Texas? The Midwest and Northeast are experiencing some of the coldest air so far this season currently.
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2996 Postby gpsnowman » Thu Feb 13, 2020 4:00 pm

orangeblood wrote:
dhweather wrote:While there's not a CAT 5 IN THE GULF (of Alaska) in the 12Z GFS, it is interesting to watch the parade of systems go through the Gulf of Alaska.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=namer&pkg=mslp_uv850&runtime=2020021312&fh=282


The extremely cold Arctic Air sitting over Alaska right now along with the Arctic HP is what's forecast by all models to head south into the Plains next week. This will be the big variable to track over the next several days!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020021312/gfs_T2ma_ak_4.png

Ha! Orangeblood answered my question a minute before I made my post. Thanks orangeblood!!
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2997 Postby Brent » Thu Feb 13, 2020 4:32 pm

FWD AFD not surprisingly staying on the rain side so far

Another overrunning precipitation event is expected to begin
Tuesday night with widespread rains lasting into Wednesday and
beyond. We have advertised rain showers for now, but we are
continuing to monitor the potential for winter weather Tuesday
night through Thursday morning. Some guidance and a few ensemble
members are hinting at a chance for wintry precipitation, but the
details are still heavily disagreed upon.
Additionally, it`s
likely that this event will produce rain for at least a couple
days, however, there is low confidence in when this event will
come to an end. Wetter solutions carry the rain into next weekend
and drier solutions end the rain late-week. Either way, it looks
like more soaking rains are on tap for the better half of next
week.
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2998 Postby Cpv17 » Thu Feb 13, 2020 4:36 pm

CPC forecast is looking good! Especially for west central TX.
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#2999 Postby gpsnowman » Thu Feb 13, 2020 4:41 pm

Brent wrote:FWD AFD not surprisingly staying on the rain side so far

Another overrunning precipitation event is expected to begin
Tuesday night with widespread rains lasting into Wednesday and
beyond. We have advertised rain showers for now, but we are
continuing to monitor the potential for winter weather Tuesday
night through Thursday morning. Some guidance and a few ensemble
members are hinting at a chance for wintry precipitation, but the
details are still heavily disagreed upon.
Additionally, it`s
likely that this event will produce rain for at least a couple
days, however, there is low confidence in when this event will
come to an end. Wetter solutions carry the rain into next weekend
and drier solutions end the rain late-week. Either way, it looks
like more soaking rains are on tap for the better half of next
week.

For many a winters past the question was, "If we only could find the moisture." Well lo and behold we certainty found it this winter in abundance. Damn, the perfect recipe is just so hard to come by down here. Winter in Texas never ceases to deliver frustration.
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#3000 Postby wxman57 » Thu Feb 13, 2020 4:43 pm

12Z Euro has next week's possible snow falling west of DFW and east of DFW but not over DFW. It must be correct...

Image
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