Texas Winter 2019-2020

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orangeblood
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#3021 Postby orangeblood » Fri Feb 14, 2020 9:45 pm

Brent wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:GFS is playing it safe and not wanting to get snow too close to DFW lol

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020021418/gfs_asnow_scus_33.png


The EPS has basically entirely lost it not good


And all we have left is the GEFS, with 75% of its members with snow accumulations next week.
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#3022 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Fri Feb 14, 2020 10:54 pm

For dallas folks to have any hope, you need the trough to be centered further west. This would send the HP more directly to you. Need colder temps. The trend currently is in favor of it moving westward.
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#3023 Postby Brent » Fri Feb 14, 2020 11:05 pm

what gets me the models arent even that cold now :roll: maybe its a temporary thing but I'm not seeing a lot of reason for optimism

GFS confines the snow to the Panhandle while DFW is well into the 40s
Last edited by Brent on Fri Feb 14, 2020 11:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#3024 Postby Ntxw » Fri Feb 14, 2020 11:11 pm

There isn't (yet) strong upper support for a storm, hardly any. It's dependent on subtropical moisture that rises up from the STJ that may or may not hook up with a cold dome (1045+-~) HP centered to the North/Northeast.

To get an event to verify we'd need the upper levels to improve, a stronger upper vortmax to really drag the cold air back. Another option is model issues interpreting cold and couple it with WAA above for the moisture (need to be in the sweet spot) to make it happen.
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#3025 Postby Brent » Sat Feb 15, 2020 1:39 am

Euro now keeps the snow way up in the Panhandle

Zero cold air elsewhere
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#3026 Postby Cpv17 » Sat Feb 15, 2020 8:42 am

Brent wrote:Euro now keeps the snow way up in the Panhandle

Zero cold air elsewhere


Have the models ever been this bad before? I mean, seriously?!?! How can they go from showing deep cold all over the state with winter precip across much of the state to basically losing a good chunk of the cold air and pretty much all of the winter precip in just a few model runs? It’s ridiculous. They shouldn’t even be updating the models if this is gonna be the result.
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#3027 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Sat Feb 15, 2020 9:43 am

Cpv17 wrote:
Brent wrote:Euro now keeps the snow way up in the Panhandle

Zero cold air elsewhere


Have the models ever been this bad before? I mean, seriously?!?! How can they go from showing deep cold all over the state with winter precip across much of the state to basically losing a good chunk of the cold air and pretty much all of the winter precip in just a few model runs? It’s ridiculous. They shouldn’t even be updating the models if this is gonna be the result.

I haven’t looked at the forecast in a few days. The last I heard was some really cold air was coming down to the Southern Plains. I looked this morning at Tues-Thurs and it’s showing highs in the upper 50s and not even a freeze! WHAT?! Model fail.
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#3028 Postby gpsnowman » Sat Feb 15, 2020 10:42 am

Yukon Cornelius wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
Brent wrote:Euro now keeps the snow way up in the Panhandle

Zero cold air elsewhere


Have the models ever been this bad before? I mean, seriously?!?! How can they go from showing deep cold all over the state with winter precip across much of the state to basically losing a good chunk of the cold air and pretty much all of the winter precip in just a few model runs? It’s ridiculous. They shouldn’t even be updating the models if this is gonna be the result.

I haven’t looked at the forecast in a few days. The last I heard was some really cold air was coming down to the Southern Plains. I looked this morning at Tues-Thurs and it’s showing highs in the upper 50s and not even a freeze! WHAT?! Model fail.

Yep temps are going the wrong way and even the moisture is not as abundant. This can only mean one thing, I am giving up. Waving the white flag of surrender. Tapping out of the ring. KO'd. I will certainly enjoy any cool down that comes our way but March is approaching and the next ten days look bleak for any winter fun. Bring on spring and all that comes with it, excluding pollen of course. The wife and I were discussing warmer days and lake visits as soon as it is warm enough, possibly even tomorrow with 70's forecasted. Days are getting longer but my patience is not. We will try again starting in November.
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#3029 Postby rwfromkansas » Sat Feb 15, 2020 10:49 am

The pattern reset isn’t happening, so I am not looking for anything now. If something happens, awesome. But, frankly I have a 300-page yearbook to finish with students and days off soon will cause issues. Really bummed last week didn’t pan out locally. It likely was it. I swear the models were better five years ago.
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#3030 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Sat Feb 15, 2020 11:05 am

gpsnowman wrote:
Yukon Cornelius wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
Have the models ever been this bad before? I mean, seriously?!?! How can they go from showing deep cold all over the state with winter precip across much of the state to basically losing a good chunk of the cold air and pretty much all of the winter precip in just a few model runs? It’s ridiculous. They shouldn’t even be updating the models if this is gonna be the result.

I haven’t looked at the forecast in a few days. The last I heard was some really cold air was coming down to the Southern Plains. I looked this morning at Tues-Thurs and it’s showing highs in the upper 50s and not even a freeze! WHAT?! Model fail.

Yep temps are going the wrong way and even the moisture is not as abundant. This can only mean one thing, I am giving up. Waving the white flag of surrender. Tapping out of the ring. KO'd. I will certainly enjoy any cool down that comes our way but March is approaching and the next ten days look bleak for any winter fun. Bring on spring and all that comes with it, excluding pollen of course. The wife and I were discussing warmer days and lake visits as soon as it is warm enough, possibly even tomorrow with 70's forecasted. Days are getting longer but my patience is not. We will try again starting in November.

I’ll hold on a little longer. We’ve had some pretty decent winter weather in March and April up this way. In my opinion the longer we can hold off spring and severe weather the better. I loathe tornado season.
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#3031 Postby Cerlin » Sat Feb 15, 2020 12:41 pm

I hereby do declare my official winter cancel. I hope I am wrong but my hope is not enough for me to still believe. Cheers to the reigning cold rain capital of the world!
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Let it snow NTX!

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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#3032 Postby orangeblood » Sun Feb 16, 2020 11:48 am

Cerlin wrote:I hereby do declare my official winter cancel. I hope I am wrong but my hope is not enough for me to still believe. Cheers to the reigning cold rain capital of the world!


Models are continuing to trend stronger/colder with the Arctic HP mid-week...not over yet!
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#3033 Postby harp » Sun Feb 16, 2020 11:53 am

orangeblood wrote:
Cerlin wrote:I hereby do declare my official winter cancel. I hope I am wrong but my hope is not enough for me to still believe. Cheers to the reigning cold rain capital of the world!


Models are continuing to trend stronger/colder with the Arctic HP mid-week...not over yet!
I stopped looking.
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#3034 Postby EnnisTx » Sun Feb 16, 2020 8:28 pm

YAAaaawn.....
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#3035 Postby Brent » Mon Feb 17, 2020 2:16 am

you know its over when even the GFS ensembles have zero snow

How many times has it failed this winter???

the much talked about pattern change never happened and its been a dumb winter in a lot of the country

I think it's about time to start wondering how many tornadoes there will be this spring. I give this winter a big F in Dallas...way too much cold rain and teases for a bunch of nothing to happen. The only reason it was saved(barely) for me personally was seeing snow elsewhere :lol:

oh and I know technically DFW broke the snowless streak(barely) but there wasn't jack in most of the metro...
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#3036 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Mon Feb 17, 2020 9:08 am

For a snow lovers, i actually think this was the worst winter in SE Tx that i can remember. This one was rough :(
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#3037 Postby wxman57 » Mon Feb 17, 2020 10:24 am

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:For a snow lovers, i actually think this was the worst winter in SE Tx that i can remember. This one was rough :(


This winter was too cold for me. As I look out my window, my azaleas are blooming.

As for this winter, dandy Don would say:

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#3038 Postby Snowflake7 » Mon Feb 17, 2020 11:13 am

This weekend was BEAUTIFUL!!! I have to say, since snow is out, I'm ready for SPRING!! Have a great day mets!
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#3039 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Mon Feb 17, 2020 11:24 am

Peak winter this year was literally at Halloween Lol. Its possible we have a colder than normal march and April but its very unlikely it would lead to any winter precip
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#3040 Postby Quixotic » Mon Feb 17, 2020 12:08 pm

Hideous. Dreadful. Maybe this is the new normal.
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