Deep South/Southeastern U.S. Winter Weather 2019-2020

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Deep South/Southeastern U.S. Winter Weather 2019-2020

#1 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Nov 06, 2019 12:04 am

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 600&fh=156


Well, looking at the latest reliable models late this evening, including tonight's 00z GFS, the time has definitely come to bring back our annual winter weather thread for the Deep South and Southeastern CONUS for 2019-20 Fall and Winter season.

The 00Z GFS is advertising a mammoth 1053 mb Arctic High dropping down from Sakatchewan south into Montana on early Monday November 12, and eventually diving southward into the Central and Eastern CONUS Nov 12-15 next week. At the same time, the Southern Stream Jet looks to get very active, with lots of vigourous disturbances riding along the jet which looks to override into the arctic air dome across the Southern Plains beginning on Tuesday, and eventually spread northeast as the arctic front moves southeast Tuesday night into next Wednesday Nov 14.

As it looks now, a potential a major ice storm may set up next week from Central and Northeast TX eastward to across Northern LA, Northern MS, and Northern AL . Late Tueday night, GFS is showing potential snow and ice across the Southern Appalachians and across the North Carolina Piedmont region by next 12Z Wednesday morning, Nov. 14.

Also noteworthy, the 00Z GFS brings freezing temps down into Northern Florida on by 12Z Thursday morning, Nov 15.

The Canadian and ICON models are even colder just to mention as they show widespread 20s across North Florida on Nov 15. Probably a bit too cold, but we will see as time progresses. I also will point out we will have to watch that shortwave energy along the southern jet stream closely in the coming days with the models. The EURO has for the past few days been trying to develop a significant Gulf Low Pressure area on late Sunday into Monday. The 00Z Canadian late tonight also is showing a 1009 mb Low forming near Galveston, TX on 12Z Thursday, Nov 15. Now, if this potential happens, this cold lead to a winter strom over the Deep South region on the Nov 14. Definitely must be watched carefully , especially considering the mammoth cold air mass progged to come down south next week....
Last edited by northjaxpro on Wed Nov 06, 2019 7:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern U.S. Winter Weather Thread 2019-2020

#2 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Nov 06, 2019 6:25 am

The 06Z GFS run has cyclogenesis of a 1007 mb Gulf Low and moves it up along off the U.S. Eastern Seaboard for Tuesday-Thursday of next week.

Looking quite probable we may see the first Nor'easter winter storm of the season next week.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern U.S. Winter Weather Thread 2019-2020

#3 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Nov 07, 2019 8:06 am

This morning's 06Z GFS indeed develops a Southern Stream Jet 1007.mb Low and moves it out of the GOM and across North Florida and South Georgia next Thursday and Thursday Night . It then moves off shore yhe Eastern U.S. Atlanyic Seaboard, and intensifies into a 983 mb Nor'easter off New England coast by late Saturday (11/16).
Last edited by northjaxpro on Thu Nov 07, 2019 8:08 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern U.S. Winter Weather Thread 2019-2020

#4 Postby NDG » Thu Nov 07, 2019 8:08 am

Good ole GFS playing with people's emotions in the Deep South, in one run is there to disappear in the next one :wink:

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Re: Deep South/Southeastern U.S. Winter Weather Thread 2019-2020

#5 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Nov 07, 2019 8:13 am

:uarrow: That will continue to go back and forth as the models pick up on the dynamics and synoptics involved with the developing nor'easter next week.. The models will hone in better with a solution wrt frozen.precip potenials begnning this weekend for next week's winter storm potential.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern U.S. Winter Weather Thread 2019-2020

#6 Postby srainhoutx » Thu Nov 07, 2019 8:26 am

Greetings. After spending most of my life in SE Texas I will be moving to Haywood County, NC in less than 2 weeks. Our new home is nestled on the side of the Smokey Mountains around 3500 ft above sea level. While I will always be a Texan, our new adventure and retirement will be in the Smokey's. I look forward to participating around here in the not too distant future following the move!
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern U.S. Winter Weather Thread 2019-2020

#7 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Nov 07, 2019 8:32 am

srainhoutx wrote:Greetings. After spending most of my life in SE Texas I will be moving to Haywood County, NC in less than 2 weeks. Our new home is nestled on the side of the Smokey Mountains around 3500 ft above sea level. While I will always be a Texan, our new adventure and retirement will be in the Smokey's. I look forward to participating around here in the not too distant future following the move!


Well, Srainhoutx, Congrats on your retirement and your new home location in the Smoky Mountains!

You may possibly see some winter weather fun next week in the NC Mountains, depending on this potential storm we are tslking about on here right now.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern U.S. Winter Weather Thread 2019-2020

#8 Postby srainhoutx » Thu Nov 07, 2019 8:38 am

northjaxpro wrote:
srainhoutx wrote:Greetings. After spending most of my life in SE Texas I will be moving to Haywood County, NC in less than 2 weeks. Our new home is nestled on the side of the Smokey Mountains around 3500 ft above sea level. While I will always be a Texan, our new adventure and retirement will be in the Smokey's. I look forward to participating around here in the not too distant future following the move!


Well, Srainhoutx, Congrats on your retirement and your new home location in the Smoky Mountains!

You may possibly see some winter weather fun next week in the NC Mountains, depending on this potential storm we are tslking about on here right now.


Current forecast does call for the first snowfall of the season next/Tuesday/Wednesday for the Mountains. I just want good traveling weather on the 18th/19th/20th as we leave with our critters and moving company to trek across the Northern Gulf Coast through Atlanta and on up to the new home. Need to get our furniture there and set up before the truck can't get up the driveway... :wink:
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern U.S. Winter Weather Thread 2019-2020

#9 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Nov 07, 2019 8:51 am

:uarrow: OK. Hopefully, traveling during Nov 18-20 the weather will be OK for you, but you know how quick the weather can change.

But, look forward to chatting to you once you get settled in your new home and again Congratulations to you and your family!!
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern U.S. Winter Weather Thread 2019-2020

#10 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Nov 07, 2019 7:23 pm

The 18Z GFS shows Gulf Low moving across North Florida next Friday, but does not move it up the U.S. Eastern Seaboard. It moves it east farther out to sea instead. No nor'easter this particular run cycle.

Also, 12Z EURO and 12Z Canadian runs earlier today dropped the Gulf Low.

I expect a fee more vhanges to this in future model runs ad we sre dtill inside of a week of this potential event taking place.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern U.S. Winter Weather Thread 2019-2020

#11 Postby srainhoutx » Tue Nov 26, 2019 9:29 pm

Greetings from Haywood County North Carolina. We have internet finally! Looks like a NW flow aloft and decent moisture will bring snowfall across the mountains Sunday night into Monday. Amounts yet to be determined, but the guidance is in good agreement for the first NW flow event of the season for the Smokey Mountains.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern U.S. Winter Weather Thread 2019-2020

#12 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Nov 27, 2019 3:32 am

:uarrow: Yeah it looks like beginning of the snow will commence Monday afternoon as partial thicknesses drop off rapidly behind the front into the evening it appears for areas around the Cumberland Plateau eastward into the Smoky Mountains of TN and to the NC Mountains. The latest 00Z GFS showed a potent closed Upper Low moving through that region on through Tuesday. Classic NW flow uplift across the Southern Appalachians looks to get set -up. Yeah, Srainhoutx, you could see some pretty good snowfall amounts in the mountains early next week.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern U.S. Winter Weather Thread 2019-2020

#13 Postby srainhoutx » Sat Nov 30, 2019 9:38 pm

Very stormy night across the Smokey Mountains this evening. Lots of thunder and lightning the past couple of hours. Cold Front arrives in the morning and a NW flow with a moisture feed from Lake Michigan should bring rounds of snow showers that could last into late Monday. Highest peaks above 4000 ft could see 4 to 6 inches.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern U.S. Winter Weather Thread 2019-2020

#14 Postby srainhoutx » Sun Dec 01, 2019 4:14 pm

Winter Storm Warnings hoisted for the Smokies this afternoon. A foot of snowfall across the higher elevations of the Tennessee/North Carolina border with up to 6 inches in the lower elevation Valleys.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern U.S. Winter Weather Thread 2019-2020

#15 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Dec 05, 2019 6:05 am

I put a self imposed rule about peeking ahead past 10 days, but this potential is too juicy not to at least mention here today. :cheesy:

A rather huge snow and ice storm potential could strike much of the Deep South around between December 14 - 15 on this morning's 06Z GFS run going out 222 hours as a massive 1054 mb Arctic High dropping southeast from Saskatchewan and an active Southern Stream shortwave may combine to give a wintry mess toward the end of next week.

There will be much change and fine tuning to this as we progress farther in time, but definitely this could get to be very interesting as we get to the middle to late portions of next week.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern U.S. Winter Weather Thread 2019-2020

#16 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Dec 07, 2019 9:27 am

This morning's 06Z GFS run is looking ominous for a potential major ice storm across the Carolinas and into Virginia as a strong 1042 mb HP, which will be positioned over New England by Thursday, wedges itself down the Lee side of the Appalachians, as a potent shortwave moving out of the GOM from a stalled frontal boundary moves northeast up along the Eastern seaboard beginning Thursday and lasting into next Saturday across the region. This set-up is a classic shallow CAD (cold air damming) event potentially for sure, the first of this type this season. The model runs later on will be quite interesting as we monitor this potential going.into this upcoming week!
Last edited by northjaxpro on Sat Dec 07, 2019 10:19 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern U.S. Winter Weather Thread 2019-2020

#17 Postby srainhoutx » Sat Dec 07, 2019 9:55 am

Sneaky little NW flow event appears to be growing for the Smokies Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Not expecting much from that event, but it certainly could be the first of several wintry weather episodes over the next 8-10 days. Looks like an active/unsettled weather pattern shaping up for the Mountains.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern U.S. Winter Weather Thread 2019-2020

#18 Postby Hammy » Sat Dec 07, 2019 9:10 pm

Am I imagining things, or are the longer-term weekly/monthly models having a high pressure/warm bias this year regarding the east/southeast?
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern U.S. Winter Weather Thread 2019-2020

#19 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Dec 10, 2019 10:07 pm

It is snowing tonight across Eastern Tennessee and into the Smoky Mountains as 1-3 inches of snowfall is forecast around Knoxville and into Gatlinburg into tomorrow morning.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern U.S. Winter Weather Thread 2019-2020

#20 Postby northjaxpro » Sun Dec 15, 2019 12:43 am

Tonight's 00Z GFS makes it three consecutive model run cycles, joining the 12Z and 18Z in which the GFS develops a major potential winter storm just off the South Carolina coast in 162 hours, with the storm at 1007 mb. GFS then rapidly intensifies the system to 980 mb in 180 hours (12Z 12/22).

This is a very significant potential storm in that for the first time in such a very long time (nearly a decade) we may FINALLY be in the midst of having a meteorological winter - NAO. We have the NAO forecast to go negative during this very time period next weekend. The GFS is also showing a good sized Polar HP (1043 mb) building down from Eastern Canada down into the Eastern U.S. next weekend. This potentially should provide more than sufficient cold air in place in the region to possibly give significant snowfall accumulations in the interior throughout SC and into the North Carolina Piedmont, if indeed this storm comes to fruition.

I am awaiting the 00Z EURO which will be out shortly to see what it will show, but the 12Z EURO had the system as well but a bit farther offshore just east of the Bahamas on that run earlier.

We are only 6 days from this potential event and no question, there will be changes and fine tuning with this as time progresses. However, most definitely this merits close watching in the coming days!

UPDATE: The 00Z ÈURO this run is not showing anything near what the GFS had at 00Z with next week's potential for Dec 21- 22. ÈURO keeps the shortwave trough much weaker than the GFS. It also does not amplify the trough as deep as the 00Z GFS run had.
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