Deep South/Southeastern U.S. Winter Weather 2019-2020

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Re: Deep South/Southeastern U.S. Winter Weather Thread 2019-2020

#41 Postby Steve » Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:24 am

Hammy wrote:Looks like another no-snow winter for northeast Georgia, that much is pretty certain.


I wouldn’t write it off yet. GFS has a pretty far south snowstorm and ice storm and a return low behind it with more. It had been hinting out at the end of the runs but is now more in the 10-12 day frame. None of us believe in a 2 week GFS for much of anything, but it’s gonna get cold at some point. Next couple weeks of MJO go amplified through 5/6/7 and then seem to come back toward the center. Low confidence because it’s far out and has been so warm, but it’s something to look out for. FWIW NE GA gets heavy snow in the 00Z run.

Of course the 6z has nothing - probably more accurate.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern U.S. Winter Weather 2019-2020

#42 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Jan 12, 2020 8:23 am

70s all week in mid January, not that I mind though.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern U.S. Winter Weather 2019-2020

#43 Postby northjaxpro » Sun Jan 12, 2020 8:38 am

Ivanhater wrote:70s all week in mid January, not that I mind though.


I will go you one better. Max temps forecast today, Monday and Tuesday to reach into the lower 80s here in Northeast Florida, which will likely shatter record max temps this week. We have already set record for warmest temp ever recorded in Jacksonville, FL for both December and this month, January, in which 85F was recorded at the NWS Jax WFO in each of those instances this season thus far.

Incredible and this is supposed to be the dead of winter right now :double: :x

Check back after January 20. We may, just may hopefully see the pattern FINALLY changing by then. One can hope!!
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern U.S. Winter Weather Thread 2019-2020

#44 Postby northjaxpro » Sun Jan 12, 2020 10:26 am

Steve wrote:
Hammy wrote:Looks like another no-snow winter for northeast Georgia, that much is pretty certain.


I wouldn’t write it off yet. GFS has a pretty far south snowstorm and ice storm and a return low behind it with more. It had been hinting out at the end of the runs but is now more in the 10-12 day frame. None of us believe in a 2 week GFS for much of anything, but it’s gonna get cold at some point. Next couple weeks of MJO go amplified through 5/6/7 and then seem to come back toward the center. Low confidence because it’s far out and has been so warm, but it’s something to look out for. FWIW NE GA gets heavy snow in the 00Z run.

Of course the 6z has nothing - probably more accurate.


Good points made Steve!

GEFS has really been hinting at this with the strengthening MJO pulse actually since around the time of Christmas, when it iniitially had the MJO amplifying its pulse at around the New Year's Day period. However, the GEFS backed off from that obviously from showing a pattern change for CONUS at the start of 2020.

However, it is apparent now that the MJO pulse apparently was delayed, and.that the pulse is strengthening indeed, and the latest forecast is for it to be at Phase 4 by January 20, next week, as the MJO pulse is expected to reach the Western Pacific by next week as well. It is possible it could potentially be at Phase 5 or 6.

Definitely a change in the pattern is coming folks next week. Old Man Winter will be back, potentially in a mighty way in the Eastern CONUS,, especially for everyone in particular east of the Mississippi River basin.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern U.S. Winter Weather 2019-2020

#45 Postby Ralph's Weather » Mon Jan 13, 2020 5:19 pm

The late winter pattern is looking great with the SE death ridge finally relaxing.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern U.S. Winter Weather 2019-2020

#46 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Jan 13, 2020 6:00 pm

Ralph's Weather wrote:The late winter pattern is looking great with the SE death ridge finally relaxing.


I have been, like many, anticipating the impact of the MJO pulse since before Christmas. However, the MJO pulse is strengthening now and is finally working its mojo on the Jet Stream pattern over North America. The pattern is finally changing and it appears we will get a visit from Old Man Winter this season across the Eastern and Central CONUS beginning next week.

The interesting element to add is that models in the medium to long range are hinting fairly strongly that the Southern Jet Stream could become very active, which really could make things interesting across the Deep South region beginning next week.

It will be all predicated on the.timing of the potential cold air intrusions southward and the evolution of these shortwave disturbances that traverse along the Southern Jet will be what to watch for after the start of next week.

This thread I hope will start to getting active soon, especially after January 20 through at least to the first week of February!!
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern U.S. Winter Weather 2019-2020

#47 Postby Hammy » Mon Jan 13, 2020 6:57 pm

Looks like any cold we get here will be dry as the models have the snow sitting consistently past the 300 hour mark.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern U.S. Winter Weather 2019-2020

#48 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Jan 13, 2020 7:13 pm

Hammy wrote:Looks like any cold we get here will be dry as the models have the snow sitting consistently past the 300 hour mark.


The pattern change is still evolving. We will definitely cool down initially beginning next week. However, the coldest air or potential coldest anomalies probably will not take place until the end of January or during the first week in February. This will not be a sudden rush of arctic air coming into the Eastern CONUS initially. It will be a gradual top down to bottom process with the cold...
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern U.S. Winter Weather 2019-2020

#49 Postby Hammy » Mon Jan 20, 2020 7:22 pm

Been getting a lot of cold wind here the last few days, but it looks like the cold spell isn't going to last very long and we're back to warming after mid-week. I'm still thinking the chance of snow is long gone at this point, the cold will be well out of here by the time any precipitation arrives.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern U.S. Winter Weather 2019-2020

#50 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Jan 21, 2020 5:44 pm

We do not have wintry precip across the region currently, outside of light snow/ snow flurries in the TN Valley and the NC mountains, which that occured earlier in the day with the passage of an upper air disturbance , which helped to deeply amplify the base of the upper trough axis across the Southeast U.S. currently.

However, the coldest modified polar air mass of this meteorological winter season to this point is now impacting the Deep South region into tomorrow. The Florida peninsula by tomorrow morning in many areas will see the coldest temperatures since January 2018. Freeze warnings up across all of North Florida and potential of Hard Freeze across the Florida Panhandle region, portions of the Big Bend and Suwannee River Valley regions . Freeze warnings even into interior Central and portions of West Central Florida for tomorrow morning, extending down to the Interstate 4 corridor.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern U.S. Winter Weather 2019-2020

#51 Postby Hammy » Tue Jan 28, 2020 3:58 am

Image

This has got to be the strangest setup I've ever seen. There's not even a blocking high, it's almost as if the lower heights simply don't want to retreat south anymore. I've never seen this much distance with such a small change in height.

Winter for Georgia is effectively over as well by the looks of it, right on cue the models have made a hard warm trend for February and the CFS no longer shows any snow south of Tennessee in any reasonable time frame (I'm not buying the forecasts of snow in March, it's showing the same as it did for January the same distance out.)
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern U.S. Winter Weather 2019-2020

#52 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Feb 07, 2020 3:41 pm

There has not been much to write home at all about winry precip in the Deep South this meteorological winter season, that's for sure, with the dominant +NAO. It has been a boring thread, needless to mention. However, there is a vorticity max rotating through the base of the upper trough axis, which is forecast to dip southeast from the Plains late today and will be moving into the TN Valley area and be positioned across Northern AL and to extreme North Georgia by 12Z tomorrow. Thermal profiles suggest that temps will be just cold enough to provide a window of opportunity to see wintry precipitation. NWS Atlanta has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for much of North Georgia region in their afternoon AFD. A light dusting to possible 1/2 inch snow accumulation may be possible in metro Atlanta tomorrow morning between 10Z and 16Z , before temps warm sufficiently there by noon tomorrow. It may be similar to what they saw earlier today in Nashville, TN, in which they had a dusting to about 1/2 snow there.

However, in the mountains of North and Northeast Georgia, they potentially could see significant accumulations upwards to 4 inches. NW Georgia areas could see 1-2 inches as those areas are entrenched in a deeper colder pocket as well as areas near Chattanooga, TN.

So, for those in North and Northeast GA, you may have a chance to see a bit of wintry precip for a brief window of time tomorrow morning.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern U.S. Winter Weather 2019-2020

#53 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Feb 08, 2020 8:35 am

Snow has commenced in Chattanooga, TN this hour and across Northwest Georgia, where Rome, GA is also reporting ligiht snow falling this hour. NWS projecting about 1 inch snow accumulation this morming.in Southeast TN and NW Georgia.

Winter Storm Warning posted for the Northeast Georgia Mountain region, including Blairsville , where 2 - 4 inches of snowfall is anticipated.

Winter Weather Advisory for much of the North Georgia region, including metro Atlanta, where a dusting or up to possibly 1/2 inch snow accumulation could occur there this morning. Temps will warm for the precip to change to all rain by early afternoon.

EDIT: NWS WFO in Chattanooga this hour reporting heavy snow, 1/2 mile visibility, Looks like Chattanooga and areas across Southeast TN may have upwards to 2 inches of snowfall accumulation before ending later this morning.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern U.S. Winter Weather Thread 2019-2020

#54 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Feb 08, 2020 9:15 am

Hammy wrote:Looks like another no-snow winter for northeast Georgia, that much is pretty certain.


Well, Hammy, looks like you were well off target proclaiming this statement, as it has turned out as of this morning :lol:

Northeast Georgia and the mountains around Blairsville, are seeing significant accumulations this morning.


TN Valley area has seen three snow events this season, including this morning..They had snow in Nashville and throughout the Cumberland Plateau region just yesterday. So, it has turned out to be a decent winter for them for snow at least.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern U.S. Winter Weather 2019-2020

#55 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Feb 08, 2020 9:43 am

NWS Atlanta has extended the Winter Storm Warning area to include NW Georgia and now they are projecting 2 - 4 inches of snowfall accumulations for that region and the rest of the Warning area. Wow!! A great overachieving shortwave disturbance moving through this region this morning. It is possible areas in the mountains could potentially get as much as 6 inches before the dsturbance moves out of the region by early afternoon.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern U.S. Winter Weather 2019-2020

#56 Postby snowpocalypse » Sat Feb 08, 2020 9:58 am

Wow, wasn't expecting anything in GA on the backside of the storm. Checked Thu and Fri to see if it was worth heading to NC high country, it didn't look like enough to make the trip but I had a feeling more would come of it. Definite overachiever.

Impressive intensity in spots, looks like a quick shot though for some areas. Rain working in on the south side of ATL. GA Mountains should be a real winner.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern U.S. Winter Weather 2019-2020

#57 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Feb 08, 2020 10:50 am

NWS Chattanooga reporting heavy snow again. 2 inches already on the ground. They look to get at least 3-4 inches total there.

NWS Atlanta reported 1 inch snow accumation thus far in Marietta, GA. Heavy snow still being reported in the Northeast Georgia mountains this hour. Blairsvillle reporting heavy snow this hour.

A very impressive snow event for Southeast TN, NW Georgia and the NE Georgia Mountains especially.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern U.S. Winter Weather 2019-2020

#58 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Feb 08, 2020 3:40 pm

Preliminary snowfall accumulation reports from NWS Atlanta and Twitter..... Impressive overachiever of a shortwave disturbance, especially for the Northeast Georgia Mountains. Caught many by surprise with the amounts. The snow is now spreading into Upstate SC and into NC Mountains and Piedmont this afternoon:

Chattanooga, TN: 3 inches
Dalton, GA: 3.4 inches
Rome, GA : 2.5 inches
Dahlonega, GA : 6.25 inches
Gainesville, GA : 4 inches
Athens, GA : 1.5 inches
Marietta, GA: 1 inch
Double Knob Mountain, Elijay, GA : 4 inches
Chickamauga, GA : 4 inches

Upstate SC region around Greenville/Spartanburg region is also receiving accumulating snow this hour , as well into the Mountains of western North Carolina and into the Piedmont of North Carolina around the Charlotte metro area this afternoon. I will update the tallies for those areas as they come in later.....
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern U.S. Winter Weather Thread 2019-2020

#59 Postby Hammy » Sun Feb 09, 2020 3:47 am

northjaxpro wrote:
Hammy wrote:Looks like another no-snow winter for northeast Georgia, that much is pretty certain.


Well, Hammy, looks like you were well off target proclaiming this statement, as it has turned out as of this morning :lol:

Northeast Georgia and the mountains around Blairsville, are seeing significant accumulations this morning.


TN Valley area has seen three snow events this season, including this morning..They had snow in Nashville and throughout the Cumberland Plateau region just yesterday. So, it has turned out to be a decent winter for them for snow at least.


It was quite a shocker, it not only out-performed the models but also the forecasts, which called for mostly rain/snow mix for an hour or so before all rain, and instead it was all snow for four hours, then light sleet and drizzle for a short time before it ended. HRRR didn't even show snow where I'm at until hours after it started.
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Re: Deep South/Southeastern U.S. Winter Weather 2019-2020

#60 Postby northjaxpro » Sun Feb 09, 2020 8:35 am

:uarrow: Hammy, I agree in that this was a case yesterday morning in which the models underestimated the strength of the dynamics, which were in play with this shortwave as it traversed through the TN Valley and eventually through the NC Mountains and Western NC Piedmont.

There was an impressive jet streak, which developed from the southwest yesterday that really energized the shortwave after it emerged from the Ozarks and into the TN Valley yesterday. Therefore, this bought about the robust snow totals by surprise. Also, the models had also a tendency in past runs the move the cold air out too quickly. As it turned out, there was quite a sufficient deep cold air pocket which stayed in place throughout areas, especially across Southeast TN and Northwest GA and Northeast Georgia Mountains right into early afternoon when the shortwave exited the region.

There were reports of areas receiving 6-8 inches in the extreme Northeast Georgia mountains. Impressive! They also had upwards to about an inch of snow in Clemson, SC and Greenville SC area and a dusting to 1/2 inch over in the Charlotte metro. Atlanta metro had some flurries, but for the most.part, the main action was just to their north and northeast, where the deepest cold pocket of air was situated.


So, Mother Nature indeed gave the Deep South a very unique suprise winter storm yesterday, so the 2019-2020 winter precip season turned out to have something to write home about after all for folks in Southeast TN, Northern GA and across into Upstate SC.
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