Texas Winter 2020-2021

Winter Weather Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
Texas Snowman
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 5277
Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2008 11:29 am
Location: Denison, Texas

Texas Winter 2020-2021

#1 Postby Texas Snowman » Fri Jul 03, 2020 7:42 pm

The 2020 summer solstice? Check.

The Fourth of July? Check.

Starting the Texas Winter 2020-2021 thread during Wxman57’s favorite season? Check. :D

Will this upcoming winter weather season finally be the one to deliver good amounts of snow, ice and cold to Texas?!?!? :froze: :jacket: :spam:
6 likes   
The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

User avatar
mcheer23
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 405
Age: 27
Joined: Sun Jun 24, 2012 8:24 pm
Location: Sugar Land, Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2 Postby mcheer23 » Thu Jul 09, 2020 11:45 am

I think a fairly warm winter is on the way...sadly... :grr: :cry:
1 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 34813
Age: 32
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: DFW
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#3 Postby Brent » Wed Jul 15, 2020 11:14 pm

mcheer23 wrote:I think a fairly warm winter is on the way...sadly... :grr: :cry:


boo :lol: :lol: :lol:
1 likes   
#neversummer

gpsnowman
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1794
Joined: Fri Jan 07, 2011 10:35 am
Location: Farmers Branch, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4 Postby gpsnowman » Mon Jul 20, 2020 8:55 am

mcheer23 wrote:I think a fairly warm winter is on the way...sadly... :grr: :cry:

Now now now don't you dare!!! Way too early for that kind of talk. :D
2 likes   

Ralph's Weather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2445
Age: 33
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2013 11:55 am
Location: Lindale, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5 Postby Ralph's Weather » Tue Jul 21, 2020 7:04 am

mcheer23 wrote:I think a fairly warm winter is on the way...sadly... :grr: :cry:

Why do you say that? I have not analyzed things for the winter yet but I do see a warm NE Pacific so that is a good sign for a cold winter.
1 likes   
Follow on Facebook at Ralph's Weather.

User avatar
FireRat
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 844
Age: 33
Joined: Sun Sep 26, 2010 11:38 pm
Location: Central NC

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#6 Postby FireRat » Tue Jul 21, 2020 9:59 pm

Came here to cool off for a bit, it's nice to see a winter thread so early here on S2K! :cold:
1 likes   
Georges '98, Irene '99, Frances '04, Jeanne '04, Katrina '05, Wilma '05, Gustav '08, Isaac '12, Matthew '16, Florence '18, Michael '18

User avatar
TeamPlayersBlue
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2910
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 1:44 am
Location: Sugar Land, Tx

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#7 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Sun Jul 26, 2020 12:24 pm

So the warm pool is still there, maybe even bigger, but paired with a La nina, could make this winter very interesting. The warm pool El nino combo hasnt worked out well for us. In 2013-'14, ENSO was pretty neutral.

Obviously, a million other variables but i do like the potential of this combo.
4 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
ThunderSleetDreams
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 917
Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2011 4:42 pm
Location: The Woodlands, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#8 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Tue Jul 28, 2020 8:16 am

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:So the warm pool is still there, maybe even bigger, but paired with a La nina, could make this winter very interesting. The warm pool El nino combo hasnt worked out well for us. In 2013-'14, ENSO was pretty neutral.

Obviously, a million other variables but i do like the potential of this combo.



Warm pool, La Niña, very cool Nino 1/2 ... spells out a cold Holiday season IMO
5 likes   
#NeverSummer

I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!

User avatar
Portastorm
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 9509
Age: 58
Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
Location: Austin, TX
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#9 Postby Portastorm » Tue Jul 28, 2020 9:30 am

First of all, I love seeing action in this thread during July! Proud of y'all. :D

Second, I have no great prediction or wisdom to offer about this coming winter season except for this ... for probably the last 3-4 winters, it is my belief that the weather patterns did not act out as predicted. The combination of the usual indices and signatures that mean certain things did not play out as most thought they would. Now I'm speaking from a general overall perspective. Certainly there were moments where they did. But overall, I can remember even some of who I consider to be very smart/solid weather people like Anthony Masiello, Ben Noll, and Bastardi/D'Aleo, having to examine things after the fact (season) on why the winter acted the way that it did. I do believe climate change is playing a role in messing with what we thought were accurate predictors. All of this to say that if we bank on the old tried and true analogs ... we'll probably be surprised. I just don't trust them like I used to.

To make things even more interesting is that today's models do not have the amount of data that they did pre-pandemic. I'm sure y'all have seen some of the same things I have seen online about less aircraft flying, less data being provided into the models, worse outcomes. If they're having issues in the 5-6 day range ... how can we have confidence beyond that?
5 likes   
Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

I'm a certified Advanced SKYWARN-trained spotter and am active on Twitter at @TravisCOSW, a social media partner of the NWS Austin-San Antonio office.

User avatar
TeamPlayersBlue
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2910
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 1:44 am
Location: Sugar Land, Tx

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#10 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Mon Aug 03, 2020 8:33 pm

Portastorm wrote:First of all, I love seeing action in this thread during July! Proud of y'all. :D

Second, I have no great prediction or wisdom to offer about this coming winter season except for this ... for probably the last 3-4 winters, it is my belief that the weather patterns did not act out as predicted. The combination of the usual indices and signatures that mean certain things did not play out as most thought they would. Now I'm speaking from a general overall perspective. Certainly there were moments where they did. But overall, I can remember even some of who I consider to be very smart/solid weather people like Anthony Masiello, Ben Noll, and Bastardi/D'Aleo, having to examine things after the fact (season) on why the winter acted the way that it did. I do believe climate change is playing a role in messing with what we thought were accurate predictors. All of this to say that if we bank on the old tried and true analogs ... we'll probably be surprised. I just don't trust them like I used to.

To make things even more interesting is that today's models do not have the amount of data that they did pre-pandemic. I'm sure y'all have seen some of the same things I have seen online about less aircraft flying, less data being provided into the models, worse outcomes. If they're having issues in the 5-6 day range ... how can we have confidence beyond that?


Youre absolutely right. Last couple winters especially predictions have been terrible. Last year especially. Last year, some of us thought it was the perfect combo for winter weather and it was the complete opposite. With that said, climate change is making a bit of an impact. Interesting to see how quickly the ice comes back in the Arctic. Big deal for building large high pressures.

I'm starting to think weak La ninas are much better for us here in Texas. 2017-18 we had three different events here in SE TX.
2 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
ThunderSleetDreams
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 917
Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2011 4:42 pm
Location: The Woodlands, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#11 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Mon Aug 03, 2020 9:31 pm

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:
Portastorm wrote:First of all, I love seeing action in this thread during July! Proud of y'all. :D

Second, I have no great prediction or wisdom to offer about this coming winter season except for this ... for probably the last 3-4 winters, it is my belief that the weather patterns did not act out as predicted. The combination of the usual indices and signatures that mean certain things did not play out as most thought they would. Now I'm speaking from a general overall perspective. Certainly there were moments where they did. But overall, I can remember even some of who I consider to be very smart/solid weather people like Anthony Masiello, Ben Noll, and Bastardi/D'Aleo, having to examine things after the fact (season) on why the winter acted the way that it did. I do believe climate change is playing a role in messing with what we thought were accurate predictors. All of this to say that if we bank on the old tried and true analogs ... we'll probably be surprised. I just don't trust them like I used to.

To make things even more interesting is that today's models do not have the amount of data that they did pre-pandemic. I'm sure y'all have seen some of the same things I have seen online about less aircraft flying, less data being provided into the models, worse outcomes. If they're having issues in the 5-6 day range ... how can we have confidence beyond that?


Youre absolutely right. Last couple winters especially predictions have been terrible. Last year especially. Last year, some of us thought it was the perfect combo for winter weather and it was the complete opposite. With that said, climate change is making a bit of an impact. Interesting to see how quickly the ice comes back in the Arctic. Big deal for building large high pressures.

I'm starting to think weak La ninas are much better for us here in Texas. 2017-18 we had three different events here in SE TX.


Weak ninas with the PDO on our side and a warm pool in GOA, are absolutely our best bet. They often deliver the coldest air too.
3 likes   
#NeverSummer

I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!

User avatar
CaptinCrunch
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8217
Age: 52
Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2003 4:33 pm
Location: Mansfield, TX (Tarrant Co.)

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#12 Postby CaptinCrunch » Mon Aug 17, 2020 2:34 pm

I'm with chunking the whole El Nino-La Nina crap in the trash can and just calling it Winter :lol:

Last Winter I didn't even burn all of my 1/2 Cord, but it was no loss as it gets used in the smoker!! Either way 2020 is a toss year, just write it off and move on to 2021.
3 likes   

Quicksilver17
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5
Joined: Sun Jan 23, 2011 9:24 pm

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#13 Postby Quicksilver17 » Tue Aug 18, 2020 12:22 pm

Let's hope for a better winter this year. we need a change from the summer heat! :D
4 likes   

nathanc1969
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 14
Joined: Fri Jan 27, 2017 11:48 am
Location: San Angelo, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#14 Postby nathanc1969 » Mon Aug 24, 2020 12:50 am

Larry Cosgrove.....who gets it right more than anyone I know, has unfortunately predicted a warm winter.
0 likes   

Yukon Cornelius
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1333
Age: 36
Joined: Thu Dec 20, 2012 9:23 pm
Location: Petrolia, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#15 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Mon Aug 24, 2020 8:41 am

Two different almanacs, two different “forecasts”.
Image
Image
3 likes   
#neversummer

gpsnowman
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1794
Joined: Fri Jan 07, 2011 10:35 am
Location: Farmers Branch, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#16 Postby gpsnowman » Thu Aug 27, 2020 8:13 pm


I will take picture A. Typical La Nina look there. We would get by with mild winter weather and then BOOM a massive cold blast with some precip to remind us it is winter. Some winter days are mild anyway so let's make this one count. Like the map says, temperamental.
1 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 34813
Age: 32
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: DFW
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#17 Postby Brent » Thu Aug 27, 2020 9:23 pm

I don't mind warmth in winter I mean it is Texas but there better be a tradeoff :lol:

That sounds like most La Nina's
0 likes   
#neversummer

User avatar
Cerlin
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 767
Age: 18
Joined: Thu Dec 08, 2016 12:06 am
Location: Frisco, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#18 Postby Cerlin » Fri Aug 28, 2020 3:06 am

I’ve decided I’m fine with a warmer winter. JUST PLEASE give me one good snow storm of 3+ inches and I’m happy. We are long overdue. :lol:
2 likes   
Let it snow NTX!

I’m an aspiring meteorologist who usually only speaks in layman’s terms. Any forecast or discussion I say is purely of my own opinion and should only be taken as such.

WinterMax
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 27
Age: 58
Joined: Thu Jan 25, 2018 3:50 pm
Location: Ville Platte, La

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#19 Postby WinterMax » Sat Aug 29, 2020 7:24 am

2nd week of September will bring a welcome change.
1 likes   

User avatar
Portastorm
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 9509
Age: 58
Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
Location: Austin, TX
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#20 Postby Portastorm » Sat Aug 29, 2020 3:59 pm

Cerlin wrote:I’ve decided I’m fine with a warmer winter. JUST PLEASE give me one good snow storm of 3+ inches and I’m happy. We are long overdue. :lol:


I was telling my Austin compadre Haris the other day that I don't mind a Nina winter. Why? They usually have several Arctic outbreak type events for Texas when the jetstream buckles and super cold air comes down from Canada. And there usually is some precip to go with it. Sure, the bulk of the winter is dry and warm and boring ... but those few events provide some nice excitement and wintry fun.
2 likes   
Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

I'm a certified Advanced SKYWARN-trained spotter and am active on Twitter at @TravisCOSW, a social media partner of the NWS Austin-San Antonio office.


Return to “Winter Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 16 guests