Texas Winter 2020-2021

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Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#41 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Oct 19, 2020 6:06 pm

Snowtober!

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Tropical Storm Erin 2008 Tropical Storm Hermine 2011 Tropical Storm Bill 2015 Tropical Storm Imelda 2019 2020 October Ice Storm

Plus many Oklahoma Supercells.

I'm not a Pro at this, but I know a lot on hurricanes & Oklahoma Weather, please look up the NHC or SPC for more info.

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#42 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Oct 19, 2020 6:09 pm

TropicalTundra wrote:Since this thread is going to be dead until early November, I might as well post this here.

https://i.imgur.com/kT4YX5f.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/LsGQIxr.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/stq9Gu7.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/xgVbBIg.jpg

Not anymore!

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Tropical Storm Erin 2008 Tropical Storm Hermine 2011 Tropical Storm Bill 2015 Tropical Storm Imelda 2019 2020 October Ice Storm

Plus many Oklahoma Supercells.

I'm not a Pro at this, but I know a lot on hurricanes & Oklahoma Weather, please look up the NHC or SPC for more info.

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#43 Postby wxman57 » Tue Oct 20, 2020 8:01 am

Great news, everyone! My long-time friend, coworker, and long-range expert has made his winter forecast. He's thinking that temps across Texas will be 5-8F above normal with drought conditions across Texas this winter. Sounds like a great winter, to me! He did caution me that we still could see some hard freezes at times. Oh well, can't be the perfect winter, I guess.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#44 Postby Portastorm » Tue Oct 20, 2020 8:28 am

:uarrow:

Of course you would have to make an appearance and gloat over such news. :roll:

Listen pal, if this ends up being a typical Nina winter we WILL have a few Arctic outbreaks with precip chances. When those happen we will celebrate and party! But admittedly, it does appear to be shaping up like your kind of "winter."
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#45 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Oct 20, 2020 4:53 pm

Portastorm wrote::uarrow:

Of course you would have to make an appearance and gloat over such news. :roll:

Listen pal, if this ends up being a typical Nina winter we WILL have a few Arctic outbreaks with precip chances. When those happen we will celebrate and party! But admittedly, it does appear to be shaping up like your kind of "winter."


Lots of winter precip is expected across the southern plains on the last full week of October, the GFS Noon run showed an Ice storm over my area for 4 days straight! If that were just be only snow, it would be 7-10 inches! :cold: :froze:
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Tropical Storm Erin 2008 Tropical Storm Hermine 2011 Tropical Storm Bill 2015 Tropical Storm Imelda 2019 2020 October Ice Storm

Plus many Oklahoma Supercells.

I'm not a Pro at this, but I know a lot on hurricanes & Oklahoma Weather, please look up the NHC or SPC for more info.

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#46 Postby AubreyStorm » Tue Oct 20, 2020 5:53 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
Portastorm wrote::uarrow:

Of course you would have to make an appearance and gloat over such news. :roll:

Listen pal, if this ends up being a typical Nina winter we WILL have a few Arctic outbreaks with precip chances. When those happen we will celebrate and party! But admittedly, it does appear to be shaping up like your kind of "winter."


Lots of winter precip is expected across the southern plains on the last full week of October, the GFS Noon run showed an Ice storm over my area for 4 days straight! If that were just be only snow, it would be 7-10 inches! :cold: :froze:


Can’t wait to see here in Frisco, Texas :ggreen: :cold: :cold: :ggreen:
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#47 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Oct 20, 2020 7:31 pm

AubreyStorm wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
Portastorm wrote::uarrow:

Of course you would have to make an appearance and gloat over such news. :roll:

Listen pal, if this ends up being a typical Nina winter we WILL have a few Arctic outbreaks with precip chances. When those happen we will celebrate and party! But admittedly, it does appear to be shaping up like your kind of "winter."


Lots of winter precip is expected across the southern plains on the last full week of October, the GFS Noon run showed an Ice storm over my area for 4 days straight! If that were just be only snow, it would be 7-10 inches! :cold: :froze:


Can’t wait to see here in Frisco, Texas :ggreen: :cold: :cold: :ggreen:


The latest GFS model showed nothing for I-35 corridor from OKC to Dallas, but only if the moisture is limited. It has been very aggressive lately & for the past 2 weeks. :cold:

The Noon run was showing how aggressive the GFS model was
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Tropical Storm Erin 2008 Tropical Storm Hermine 2011 Tropical Storm Bill 2015 Tropical Storm Imelda 2019 2020 October Ice Storm

Plus many Oklahoma Supercells.

I'm not a Pro at this, but I know a lot on hurricanes & Oklahoma Weather, please look up the NHC or SPC for more info.

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#48 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Oct 21, 2020 10:44 am

The newest GFS model run is setting up, it's the noon model run.

I'll send photos of what the precip will show according to the GFS, has been very aggressive for the last 2 weeks.

Was very mild this morning, down to only 66F.
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Tropical Storm Erin 2008 Tropical Storm Hermine 2011 Tropical Storm Bill 2015 Tropical Storm Imelda 2019 2020 October Ice Storm

Plus many Oklahoma Supercells.

I'm not a Pro at this, but I know a lot on hurricanes & Oklahoma Weather, please look up the NHC or SPC for more info.

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#49 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Oct 21, 2020 11:54 am

Still aggressive with the noon model run from the GFS model

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Tropical Storm Erin 2008 Tropical Storm Hermine 2011 Tropical Storm Bill 2015 Tropical Storm Imelda 2019 2020 October Ice Storm

Plus many Oklahoma Supercells.

I'm not a Pro at this, but I know a lot on hurricanes & Oklahoma Weather, please look up the NHC or SPC for more info.

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#50 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Oct 22, 2020 6:12 pm

Texas residents: If you live in the Panhandle Texas area, down as far south as Lubbock, get ready for possible Ice & slushy snow, snowfall totals up to 3 inches, & it depends on the Ice totals, if you don't the winter weather, you will get the cold, up to 30F below normal at it's coldest, refer to your local NWS for more info.
Oklahoma residents: Winter weather is expected to be as far south as the I-44 corridor, the ground temp. is too warm, but is there is more ice further south, then there will be fallen tree limbs & power lines. Very cold weather is also expected with this. Refer to your NWS for more info.

Image
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Tropical Storm Erin 2008 Tropical Storm Hermine 2011 Tropical Storm Bill 2015 Tropical Storm Imelda 2019 2020 October Ice Storm

Plus many Oklahoma Supercells.

I'm not a Pro at this, but I know a lot on hurricanes & Oklahoma Weather, please look up the NHC or SPC for more info.

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#51 Postby TXdaddy217 » Sun Oct 25, 2020 6:23 pm

https://www.weather.gov/sjt

Greetings Winter Weather friends. Cant remember a time when we had a Winter Storm Watch before Halloween here in the Abilene area. Will keep you all posted with what occurs. :cold: :froze:
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#52 Postby Ptarmigan » Wed Oct 28, 2020 7:24 pm

wxman57 wrote:Great news, everyone! My long-time friend, coworker, and long-range expert has made his winter forecast. He's thinking that temps across Texas will be 5-8F above normal with drought conditions across Texas this winter. Sounds like a great winter, to me! He did caution me that we still could see some hard freezes at times. Oh well, can't be the perfect winter, I guess.


I would like winters cool. Droughts would be a really bad thing.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#53 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Nov 08, 2020 4:44 am

TXdaddy217 wrote:https://www.weather.gov/sjt

Greetings Winter Weather friends. Cant remember a time when we had a Winter Storm Watch before Halloween here in the Abilene area. Will keep you all posted with what occurs. :cold: :froze:

Ice storm warning for my area
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Tropical Storm Erin 2008 Tropical Storm Hermine 2011 Tropical Storm Bill 2015 Tropical Storm Imelda 2019 2020 October Ice Storm

Plus many Oklahoma Supercells.

I'm not a Pro at this, but I know a lot on hurricanes & Oklahoma Weather, please look up the NHC or SPC for more info.

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#54 Postby vbhoutex » Wed Nov 25, 2020 3:13 pm

This is SE TX specific from Jeff Lindner with Harris County Flood Control:

Heavy rainfall and strong thunderstorms increasingly likely Friday and Saturday.

A strong upper level storm system will slowly approach the area late this week and this weekend. A weak surface cold front is moving toward the coast this morning and will push offshore by midday and move into the NW Gulf of Mexico before stalling. An upper level trough will be developing over the western US over the next 24-36 hours and will begin to move toward TX late tomorrow. The approach of this trough will result in surface low pressure forming over deep south TX and activating the old front from today into a warm front late Thursday. This warm front will move northward and into SE TX early Friday and slow over the region.

Moisture will rapidly increase Thursday afternoon and evening as the warm front approaches the coastal waters. May even see the development of showers over the coastal waters Thursday afternoon that begins to spread inland Thursday evening. Expect showers and thunderstorms to increase and expand in coverage and intensity early Friday as favorable jet stream dynamics aloft combine with the northward moving warm front. It appears the warm front may begin to slow or even stall over SE TX for a period from Friday afternoon into early Saturday allowing for a prolonged heavy rainfall episode due to cell training.

Moisture profiles for the Friday afternoon into Saturday period are certainly high with progged PWS of 1.75-2.0 inches over the area which is near the climo maximum values for this time of year at CRP and LCH. Forecast soundings show a deep saturated layer and warm profile strongly pointing toward heavy rainfall. Upper level winds become increasingly divergent over the area with a splitting jet stream structure aloft helping to vent rising warm and moist air. Add in moderate low level inflow off the Gulf of Mexico into a WSW to ENE slow moving warm front and the ingredients are in play for prolonged heavy rainfall, cell training, and possible flash flooding.

A cold front will approach the region at some point Saturday into early Sunday helping to focus additional rainfall. The upper level trough will slowly move eastward late Saturday into Sunday leading to decreasing rain chances and cold conditions.

A few of the storms on Friday and Saturday could be strong with the main threat being small hail.


Hydro:

Rainfall amounts over the next 5 days (mainly Friday and Saturday) will likely average 1-3 inches over the region with isolated totals of 5-6 inches possible. Grounds are dry given the recent dry weather and much of this rainfall is likely beneficial for the region to hold off increasing drought and fire weather concerns. Flash flood guidance is running over 5 inches for 6 hours over the region. However, there is likely to be a slow moving surface boundary in place over the region with a favorable set up for training heavy rainfall and should any sort of heavy rainfall axis develop and anchor over any specific location for a period of time…flash flooding could develop. Main concern would be for street flooding with the heavier rainfall rates, but rises on area creeks and bayous will be possible in heavy rainfall materializes in the more urban areas. WPC has place much of the area in a marginal risk for flash flooding on Friday.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#55 Postby jasons2k » Thu Nov 26, 2020 4:41 pm

Happy Thanksgiving everyone!
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#56 Postby Brent » Thu Nov 26, 2020 5:00 pm

Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

well looks like DFW's first freeze is very likely the first day we officially move to this thread and it looks like a cold unsettled week overall so it will definitely feel like winter
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#57 Postby Texas Snow » Sat Nov 28, 2020 9:01 am

Well Howdy everyone. This place is dead, understandably. I haven’t been here myself due to the warm weather this fall. Can’t wait to get things started finally

Perhaps this from NWS can stir a few DFW folks up. Not high likelihood, but extended cold with models struggling with precip timing and precip type. Hey it’s at least something to watch...

The primary forecast dilemma through the extended is the
Wednesday to Friday time period where enormous uncertainties exist
among guidance. While it is clear that broad troughing will
remain in place over the entire CONUS, the evolution of individual
disturbances rotating through the parent trough will have
considerable implications on our local forecast. Depending on the
speed and arrival time of the first disturbance, it could either
consist of another dry cold frontal passage, or significant
widespread rainfall with perhaps some wintry weather trailing
behind. Ensemble guidance disagrees mightily at this time, and one
can find whatever wishcast scenario they`re rooting for after
sorting through dozens of ensembles. At this point, below-
average forecast confidence doesn`t warrant anything more than
20-30% chances for rainfall starting Wednesday and ending Thursday
with colder air arriving Thursday night which generally follows
ensemble mean solutions. Expect some dramatic shifts in the
forecast until guidance comes into better agreement in a few more
days.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#58 Postby somethingfunny » Sat Nov 28, 2020 3:41 pm

The NWS actually put the word "wishcast" into an AFD :lol:

Texas Snow wrote:Well Howdy everyone. This place is dead, understandably. I haven’t been here myself due to the warm weather this fall. Can’t wait to get things started finally

Perhaps this from NWS can stir a few DFW folks up. Not high likelihood, but extended cold with models struggling with precip timing and precip type. Hey it’s at least something to watch...

The primary forecast dilemma through the extended is the
Wednesday to Friday time period where enormous uncertainties exist
among guidance. While it is clear that broad troughing will
remain in place over the entire CONUS, the evolution of individual
disturbances rotating through the parent trough will have
considerable implications on our local forecast. Depending on the
speed and arrival time of the first disturbance, it could either
consist of another dry cold frontal passage, or significant
widespread rainfall with perhaps some wintry weather trailing
behind. Ensemble guidance disagrees mightily at this time, and one
can find whatever wishcast scenario they`re rooting for after
sorting through dozens of ensembles. At this point, below-
average forecast confidence doesn`t warrant anything more than
20-30% chances for rainfall starting Wednesday and ending Thursday
with colder air arriving Thursday night which generally follows
ensemble mean solutions. Expect some dramatic shifts in the
forecast until guidance comes into better agreement in a few more
days.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#59 Postby Cerlin » Sat Nov 28, 2020 7:14 pm

In general Euro and CMC seem to be somewhat onboard with at least an OK snowstorm...GFS still doesn’t even have precipitation for anyone.
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Let it snow NTX!

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#60 Postby vbhoutex » Mon Nov 30, 2020 12:21 pm

SE TX specific from Jeff Lindner:
Freeze warning is in effect for all of SE TX except for the immediate coast for tonight into Tuesday morning.

Cold air advection continues this morning as strong high pressure builds into the southern plains. Temperatures are generally in the low to mid 40’s with wind chill values in the low to mid 30’s over the region. Cold air advection will continue today and even with full sun, high temperatures will only mange to make to low 50’s.

With clear skies, light winds, and low dewpoints…a cold night is expected tonight as near excellent radiational cooling conditions will be in place. Many areas will fall to freezing and below and this requires a freeze warning for the area since this is the first freeze of the season. Expect low temperatures to fall into the upper 20’s north of HWY 105 and the low 30’s all the way down to the interior coastal counties. In Harris County lows in the low 30’s will be likely outside the Beltway and low to mid 30’s inside the Beltway where the urban heat island will help to mitigate the temperature fall to some degree. For many areas this will likely be a killing freeze and end to the growing season.

High pressure quickly shifts to the east on Tuesday as another storm system approaches rapidly from the west. Clouds will increase Tuesday night and expect enough moisture to produce showers on Wednesday ahead of the next cold front. This front will move across the area on Wednesday evening. Another shot of cold Canadian air will move southward behind this front, but not as cold as the current air mass. Temperatures once again could be near freezing Friday and Saturday mornings…mainly north of HWY 105. Both high and low temperatures will remain below normal into next weekend.
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