TheProfessor wrote:I wouldn't call this a good chance for EF-4s based on this sounding. Although ML CAPE, directional shear, and SRH all look good. Low-level speed shear could be better, and any storm in that immediate environment would be elevated, which would make it very hard to get a tornado, much less a strong one.
However, this specific sounding does look contaminated and there's probably a storm already occurring over this location. If that's the case then the parameters are probably quite a bit better than this and the potential for a strong or even severe tornado is very real. Nonetheless, even if the environment will be capped at the surface during the event, as with any severe weather event, one should be prepared in the case the cap breaks.
All of this is true, but that sounding is showing
if no other storms already went over that area.
Yes, the threat will be lower if there is too much clouds, previous storms, less wind shear, less CAPE & if the area is capped.
But, there is always a chance that the cap breaks & ruptures (When a storm breaks the cap, it can rupture & allow more storms to form, this happened last year when a powerful supercell broke the cap & more storms followed suit afterword) and chances can't be taken with convective activity because they are very unpredictable on how strong they can be & can suddenly change direction.
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021 All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say
Never with weather! Because
ANYTHING is possible!