Texas Winter 2020-2021

[Iceresistance]

https://i.ibb.co/why21VV/A723-CF1-A-CA2-D-41-C8-ACC4-F3558679-ABA6.jpg
https://i.ibb.co/9sK5QGp/510-B9-D67-FDD1-4819-B0-C1-017063-E673-EC.jpg
https://i.ibb.co/Cn1z27d/FC6-D998-C-15-AF-442-E-AC98-8-E76-B02024-FF.jpg

What a shame. Winter is very likely over at this rate (What will heat miser react to this????)

But, storm season is posed to start this weekend in Northern Texas & Southern Oklahoma.

It will be interesting to see. The weather channel is famous for putting these temp forecasts out weekly and they never seem to be the same. The models however don’t look good either.

Not good for snow, & when this shows up, Winter might be over already.

[Yukon Cornelius]

What a shame. Winter is very likely over at this rate (What will heat miser react to this????)

But, storm season is posed to start this weekend in Northern Texas & Southern Oklahoma.

It will be interesting to see. The weather channel is famous for putting these temp forecasts out weekly and they never seem to be the same. The models however don’t look good either.

Not good for snow, & when this shows up, Winter might be over already.

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/Severe-weather-possible-Sunday.png

Yeah, you can pass me by with that stuff. What’s that old saying? When it thunders in winter, expect snow 10 days later? Or something like that. I may be totally wrong with that.

[Iceresistance]

It will be interesting to see. The weather channel is famous for putting these temp forecasts out weekly and they never seem to be the same. The models however don’t look good either.

Not good for snow, & when this shows up, Winter might be over already.

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/Severe-weather-possible-Sunday.png

Yeah, you can pass me by with that stuff. What’s that old saying? When it thunders in winter, expect snow 10 days later? Or something like that. I may be totally wrong with that.

Yes, that old saying is true, but the accuracy is around 20%. I rather not count on that.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Not good for snow, & when this shows up, Winter might be over already.

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/Severe-weather-possible-Sunday.png

Yeah, you can pass me by with that stuff. What’s that old saying? When it thunders in winter, expect snow 10 days later? Or something like that. I may be totally wrong with that.

Yes, that old saying is true, but the accuracy is around 20%. I rather not count on that.

So about the same as long range forecasts and models?

[Iceresistance]

Yeah, you can pass me by with that stuff. What’s that old saying? When it thunders in winter, expect snow 10 days later? Or something like that. I may be totally wrong with that.

Yes, that old saying is true, but the accuracy is around 20%. I rather not count on that.

So about the same as long range forecasts and models?

Yes, lower farther out.

[rwfromkansas]

Well, uh oh. My optimism is rapidly fading. At least I saw some mood snow for a day and saw some in New Mexico at the end of October, but standing in one snow pile isn't the same.

Better be a good severe weather season to make up for this.

[Iceresistance]

Well, uh oh. My optimism is rapidly fading. At least I saw some mood snow for a day and saw some in New Mexico at the end of October, but standing in one snow pile isn't the same.

Better be a good severe weather season to make up for this.

Well, I had 3 snowstorms in a SINGLE month! (December 2020)

[InfernoFlameCat]

La Nina has kicked in and without that Greenland high, sadness. Also the polar vortex slipped towards Siberia instead of Central Canada. Real bummer.

[Brent]

how fast things change... 2 snowstorms nearby in a week and a half and now what???

[TropicalTundra]

CMC just casually drops several feet of snow on southern Colorado around 210 hours out. GFS doesn't see this yet.

[Iceresistance]

CMC just casually drops several feet of snow on southern Colorado around 210 hours out. GFS doesn't see this yet.

Highest I've seen on that model is 150 inches in Colorado

[Iceresistance]

how fast things change... 2 snowstorms nearby in a week and a half and now what???

Maybe the GFS model is trolling us?

[TropicalTundra]

Also, GFS drops 9.5 feet of snow on some places in Eastern California.

[rwfromkansas]

Another dense fog advisory canceled. I swear 9 times out of 10 these never materialize in DFW. Anybody know why? Not that I enjoy driving in it, but it can look cool if not too thick.

[Iceresistance]

Another dense fog advisory canceled. I swear 9 times out of 10 these never materialize in DFW. Anybody know why? Not that I enjoy driving in it, but it can look cool if not too thick.

Too windy? Tried to develop here but the wind picked up.

[Iceresistance]

GFS +60 hours Sounding over Dallas, TX

Looking more like May than January!



(Yes, there is a good chance of EF4 tornadoes over Dallas, I'm really hoping that chance is a bust )

Also in my storm season Forum: viewtopic.php?f=24&t=121693

[TheProfessor]

GFS +60 hours Sounding over Dallas, TX

Looking more like May than January!

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/Screenshot-2021-01-22-at-10.19.42-AM.png

(Yes, there is a good chance of EF4 tornadoes over Dallas, I'm really hoping that chance is a bust )

Also in my storm season Forum: viewtopic.php?f=24&t=121693

I wouldn't call this a good chance for EF-4s based on this sounding. Although ML CAPE, directional shear, and SRH all look good. Low-level speed shear could be better, and any storm in that immediate environment would be elevated, which would make it very hard to get a tornado, much less a strong one.

However, this specific sounding does look contaminated and there's probably a storm already occurring over this location. If that's the case then the parameters are probably quite a bit better than this and the potential for a strong or even severe tornado is very real. Nonetheless, even if the environment will be capped at the surface during the event, as with any severe weather event, one should be prepared in the case the cap breaks.

[Iceresistance]

GFS +60 hours Sounding over Dallas, TX

Looking more like May than January!

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/Screenshot-2021-01-22-at-10.19.42-AM.png

(Yes, there is a good chance of EF4 tornadoes over Dallas, I'm really hoping that chance is a bust )

Also in my storm season Forum: viewtopic.php?f=24&t=121693

I wouldn't call this a good chance for EF-4s based on this sounding. Although ML CAPE, directional shear, and SRH all look good. Low-level speed shear could be better, and any storm in that immediate environment would be elevated, which would make it very hard to get a tornado, much less a strong one.

However, this specific sounding does look contaminated and there's probably a storm already occurring over this location. If that's the case then the parameters are probably quite a bit better than this and the potential for a strong or even severe tornado is very real. Nonetheless, even if the environment will be capped at the surface during the event, as with any severe weather event, one should be prepared in the case the cap breaks.

All of this is true, but that sounding is showing if no other storms already went over that area.

Yes, the threat will be lower if there is too much clouds, previous storms, less wind shear, less CAPE & if the area is capped.

But, there is always a chance that the cap breaks & ruptures (When a storm breaks the cap, it can rupture & allow more storms to form, this happened last year when a powerful supercell broke the cap & more storms followed suit afterword) and chances can't be taken with convective activity because they are very unpredictable on how strong they can be & can suddenly change direction.

[TheProfessor]

GFS +60 hours Sounding over Dallas, TX

Looking more like May than January!

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/Screenshot-2021-01-22-at-10.19.42-AM.png

(Yes, there is a good chance of EF4 tornadoes over Dallas, I'm really hoping that chance is a bust )

Also in my storm season Forum: viewtopic.php?f=24&t=121693

I wouldn't call this a good chance for EF-4s based on this sounding. Although ML CAPE, directional shear, and SRH all look good. Low-level speed shear could be better, and any storm in that immediate environment would be elevated, which would make it very hard to get a tornado, much less a strong one.

However, this specific sounding does look contaminated and there's probably a storm already occurring over this location. If that's the case then the parameters are probably quite a bit better than this and the potential for a strong or even severe tornado is very real. Nonetheless, even if the environment will be capped at the surface during the event, as with any severe weather event, one should be prepared in the case the cap breaks.

All of this is true, but that sounding is showing if no other storms already went over that area.

Yes, the threat will be lower if there is too much clouds, previous storms, less wind shear, less CAPE & if the area is capped.

But, there is always a chance that the cap breaks & ruptures (When a storm breaks the cap, it can rupture & allow more storms to form, this happened last year when a powerful supercell broke the cap & more storms followed suit afterword) and chances can't be taken with convective activity because they are very unpredictable on how strong they can be & can suddenly change direction.

I'm telling you that the sounding you posted is contaminated, the dewpoint being right on the temperature line near the surface and the temperature inversion both suggests this. The 12z GFS at this moment also shows precipitation over Dallas at that moment. That's what is causing the contamination. This means that we can't really get a good gage on what the sounding you posted is telling us because it's being affected by ongoing precipitation. In this case the rain is causing a temperature inversion, which lessens the parameters for severe weather on a sounding.

If the opposite were true and the sounding wasn't contaminated then the severe weather risk would be minimalized because of the temperature inversion at the surface and weak low level lapse rates (caused by the inversion.).

[Iceresistance]

I wouldn't call this a good chance for EF-4s based on this sounding. Although ML CAPE, directional shear, and SRH all look good. Low-level speed shear could be better, and any storm in that immediate environment would be elevated, which would make it very hard to get a tornado, much less a strong one.

However, this specific sounding does look contaminated and there's probably a storm already occurring over this location. If that's the case then the parameters are probably quite a bit better than this and the potential for a strong or even severe tornado is very real. Nonetheless, even if the environment will be capped at the surface during the event, as with any severe weather event, one should be prepared in the case the cap breaks.

All of this is true, but that sounding is showing if no other storms already went over that area.

Yes, the threat will be lower if there is too much clouds, previous storms, less wind shear, less CAPE & if the area is capped.

But, there is always a chance that the cap breaks & ruptures (When a storm breaks the cap, it can rupture & allow more storms to form, this happened last year when a powerful supercell broke the cap & more storms followed suit afterword) and chances can't be taken with convective activity because they are very unpredictable on how strong they can be & can suddenly change direction.

I'm telling you that the sounding you posted is contaminated, the dewpoint being right on the temperature line near the surface and the temperature inversion both suggests this. The 12z GFS at this moment also shows precipitation over Dallas at that moment. That's what is causing the contamination. This means that we can't really get a good gage on what the sounding you posted is telling us because it's being affected by ongoing precipitation. In this case the rain is causing a temperature inversion, which lessens the parameters for severe weather on a sounding.

If the opposite were true and the sounding wasn't contaminated then the severe weather risk would be minimalized because of the temperature inversion at the surface and weak low level lapse rates (caused by the inversion.).

Oh, I see now



When a Sounding is looking crazy, double-check the radar to see if it is a contaminated sounding, if it is (Example above), then the true threat is lower. But if it is not, the unthinkable may happen.