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TheProfessor wrote:Iceresistance wrote:txtwister78 wrote:https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/conus/t2m_f_anom_5day/1610798400/1611662400-vZnNb5qlLQY.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/conus/t2m_f_anom_5day/1610798400/1612094400-GkQyqHxVD7w.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/tx/total_precip_inch/1610820000/1611360000-q388M1tBnnU.png
Euro ENS has TX locked in to a warmer than normal temp pattern in the longer term. -PNA is the big factor overall. The EPO actually does go negative for a week, but due to the -PNA most of the cold air that does enter the US will be blocked from coming too far south. We need to root for the PNA to go back to neutral or positive in order for us to get back to a wintry pattern. Right now doesn't look likely thru the end of the month.
What does look more likely is some good rain entering the forecast for the state next week. We definitely could use it across a good portion of the state.
If there can't be snow, I'll take any rain needed to keep away the drought from coming to the eastern side of the Southern Plains
Speaking of drought. This was brought to my attention by a brilliant grad student that I know on another site, but where the current drought in the Southwest expands will be critical to determining where a possible large tornado outbreak could occur this Spring. It is likely that the drought will influence EMLs, possibly pushing stronger EMLs further east due to the dryline either setting up further east or just progressing eastward more easily due to dry land. Where the boundary of the drought is is important to DFW and east Texas and Dixie Alley. In 2011 DFW and east Texas ended up on the western edge of the Super Outbreak. One thing that's different this year than 2011 is that in 2011 east Texas got the worst of the drought early on, whereas right now it's mostly confined to west Texas. Now CPC does expect much of the Southern Plains to be in drought this year, but if stays just abnormally dry instead of being a severe drought, that could influence how far east EMLs get. To put it plainly, if the drought is focused further west this year, but EMLs are occurring further east than average with an active tornado season to go with it, then we could see the hard hit areas shift west from 2011, focusing on east Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi instead of Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia. It wouldn't surprise if DFW saw a lot more dry line action this year, which does mean you might not get anything, but we also know that drylines produce some of the most dangerous supercells and tornadoes we've seen. EMLs poking into Louisiana and Mississippi also mean trouble because it limits the junk convection that often causes busts in Dixie Alley (I should probably throw Arkansas in the list of these states as well). Further east where EMLs may not quite reach, that junk convection still exists so outbreaks are quite as widespread as what we saw in 2011.
I should point out that I'm not saying there's going to be an outbreak that rivals 2011 this spring, but let's be real, even an outbreak half as bad as that would be seriously bad. Unless we get put into full on winter mode nation wide, there will probably be at least 1 bad outbreak this year.
Yeah, I remember in 2013, there was a drought that was breaking in Central Oklahoma that led to 3 small but bad Tornado outbreaks. (May 19th, 20th, & May 31st)
The 2018-2019 Winter was mild, but in 2019, Oklahoma (And several other states including Texas) was getting outbreak after outbreak of tornadoes, especially in May. (Including the May 21st High Risk day!)
Don’t always count on Nasty Winters on more severe weather, it’s just the odds on one is higher compared to a mild winter.
(The drought where I’m at does not exist, the odds of severe weather is higher here.)
Gotta love it.
