Texas Winter 2020-2021

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orangeblood
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2061 Postby orangeblood » Mon Jan 11, 2021 8:16 am

Lagreeneyes03 wrote:
gpsnowman wrote:Some good returns showing on radar to our northwest. Will it make it? Something to stay up for if it's even making it to the surface.


Seems to be dissipating about halfway thru Denton co.. North Fort Worth, North Tarrant will also be screwed on this one. The only way to rectify this is another event which dumps 10 inches on my area and an inch on everyone else, just because. And none for anyone south of Burleson and west of FW


Lol :D definitely one of the more frustrating winter storms I can remember for DFW folks, the model analyzing was even worse!! But now onto the next one....

One things we've been lacking so far this winter is Arctic Air, most of these cold spells are modified Canadian origin airmasses. It looks like that may change towards the 2nd half of January. The teleconnection indices are showing the EPO and WPO look like they may go negative in 7-10 days. This could finally begin setting the stage for Arctic HPs to influence our weather pattern across the lower 48. GEFS reflecting this in week 2

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2062 Postby wxman57 » Mon Jan 11, 2021 8:32 am

Here's a link to snowfall reports across the state. Looks like the DFW area was too far north. About 1-5 inches in the Austin area, though.

https://www.weather.gov/source/crh/snowmap.html?zoom=10&lat=30.62&lon=-96.19&hr=24
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2063 Postby gboudx » Mon Jan 11, 2021 9:06 am

TXWeatherMan wrote:0Z GFS is interesting for next weekend


Let me go ahead and give a proactive congratulations for the next weekend snow to folks in Stephenville, Waco, Austin, Houston and down to Brownsville.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2064 Postby BigB0882 » Mon Jan 11, 2021 9:52 am

Can someone post the 0z GFS image for next weekend? Does this seem more promising for those a little south? Here in Baton Rouge we enjoyed a cold rain all night. Would love for that to have been snow, would have been a nice event.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2065 Postby Portastorm » Mon Jan 11, 2021 10:08 am

gboudx wrote:
TXWeatherMan wrote:0Z GFS is interesting for next weekend


Let me go ahead and give a proactive congratulations for the next weekend snow to folks in Stephenville, Waco, Austin, Houston and down to Brownsville.


I don't think you're going to miss anything. Just a cold rain down here.

Listen, 2021 is the year of the improbable. My Browns beat the Steelers last night, breaking all kinds of records for futility. The Longhorns men's basketball team is ranked in the top 5 and we got a multi-inch snowfall yesterday in Austin. DFW is next! Y'all will score this winter with a big storm. I know it! :)
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2066 Postby BigB0882 » Mon Jan 11, 2021 10:16 am

And can someone share the link where the GFS data is shown by the hour through the 300 or so hour period. It shows precip, type of precip, temps, etc. I used to have it bookmarked and can't find it anymore! I don't even remember what the name was.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2067 Postby gboudx » Mon Jan 11, 2021 10:20 am

Portastorm wrote:
gboudx wrote:
TXWeatherMan wrote:0Z GFS is interesting for next weekend


Let me go ahead and give a proactive congratulations for the next weekend snow to folks in Stephenville, Waco, Austin, Houston and down to Brownsville.


I don't think you're going to miss anything. Just a cold rain down here.

Listen, 2021 is the year of the improbable. My Browns beat the Steelers last night, breaking all kinds of records for futility. The Longhorns men's basketball team is ranked in the top 5 and we got a multi-inch snowfall yesterday in Austin. DFW is next! Y'all will score this winter with a big storm. I know it! :)


I blame the DFW area posters here for posting they want snow. Clearly Mother Nature needs specifics. Don't just say you want snow; say you want multi-inch accumulating snow. Mother Nature isn't a mind reader. ;)
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2068 Postby Brandon8181 » Mon Jan 11, 2021 10:24 am

BigB0882 wrote:And can someone share the link where the GFS data is shown by the hour through the 300 or so hour period. It shows precip, type of precip, temps, etc. I used to have it bookmarked and can't find it anymore! I don't even remember what the name was.


www.tropicaltidbits.com

or

www.twisterdata.com
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2069 Postby rwfromkansas » Mon Jan 11, 2021 10:38 am

orangeblood wrote:
Lagreeneyes03 wrote:
gpsnowman wrote:Some good returns showing on radar to our northwest. Will it make it? Something to stay up for if it's even making it to the surface.


Seems to be dissipating about halfway thru Denton co.. North Fort Worth, North Tarrant will also be screwed on this one. The only way to rectify this is another event which dumps 10 inches on my area and an inch on everyone else, just because. And none for anyone south of Burleson and west of FW


Lol :D definitely one of the more frustrating winter storms I can remember for DFW folks, the model analyzing was even worse!! But now onto the next one....

One things we've been lacking so far this winter is Arctic Air, most of these cold spells are modified Canadian origin airmasses. It looks like that may change towards the 2nd half of January. The teleconnection indices are showing the EPO and WPO look like they may go negative in 7-10 days. This could finally begin setting the stage for Arctic HPs to influence our weather pattern across the lower 48. GEFS reflecting this in week 2

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2021011106/gfs-ens_mslpaNormMean_namer_12.png


Of course, then it will be too cold, and Abilene to Waco will get another 10 inches. DFW zero. Lol. It's either one extreme or another. Getting things to line up perfectly seems impossible.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2070 Postby cheezyWXguy » Mon Jan 11, 2021 10:42 am

0z CMC seems to be hinting at the same storm next weekend as the gfs and gfs-p. Also, looks really good in the long range with a big spill of cold air riding a system down into western US. Seems to corroborate the GEFS.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2071 Postby HockeyTx82 » Mon Jan 11, 2021 11:21 am

How odd on the timing. One year ago today Ponder had that little snow storm that put down 4 inches. Moved from west to east in a very narrow band. It was a surprise snow that I think the HRRR picked up. It was great and thus far the only snow my 5 and 3 year old have seen. My OneDrive flashed up photos from 1 year ago today.

And below is the thread. Basically the areas that got dry slotted last night cashed in on the event and everyone else was left out.

viewtopic.php?f=22&t=120302&start=1340
Last edited by HockeyTx82 on Mon Jan 11, 2021 11:30 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2072 Postby JDawg512 » Mon Jan 11, 2021 11:30 am

wxman57 wrote:Here's a link to snowfall reports across the state. Looks like the DFW area was too far north. About 1-5 inches in the Austin area, though.

https://www.weather.gov/source/crh/snowmap.html?zoom=10&lat=30.62&lon=-96.19&hr=24


Thanks for posting that, I was pretty sure from my measurements that 2 inches fell here at the Rain Cave, that snowfall map confirms it.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2073 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jan 11, 2021 11:31 am

orangeblood wrote:
Lagreeneyes03 wrote:
gpsnowman wrote:Some good returns showing on radar to our northwest. Will it make it? Something to stay up for if it's even making it to the surface.


Seems to be dissipating about halfway thru Denton co.. North Fort Worth, North Tarrant will also be screwed on this one. The only way to rectify this is another event which dumps 10 inches on my area and an inch on everyone else, just because. And none for anyone south of Burleson and west of FW


Lol :D definitely one of the more frustrating winter storms I can remember for DFW folks, the model analyzing was even worse!! But now onto the next one....

One things we've been lacking so far this winter is Arctic Air, most of these cold spells are modified Canadian origin airmasses. It looks like that may change towards the 2nd half of January. The teleconnection indices are showing the EPO and WPO look like they may go negative in 7-10 days. This could finally begin setting the stage for Arctic HPs to influence our weather pattern across the lower 48. GEFS reflecting this in week 2

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2021011106/gfs-ens_mslpaNormMean_namer_12.png


It's been well modeled we just haven't talked about. There is a SE ridge with the coming -EPO episode so the risk for an ice storm is elevated. it's going to lean more Nina like with the dagger cold in the middle of the country and Rockies. Perhaps the persistent -AO will assist with deeper cold for more opportunities of snow.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2074 Postby Haris » Mon Jan 11, 2021 11:39 am

Image
Image
Image
Image
Image

Few more I wanted to post
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2075 Postby Portastorm » Mon Jan 11, 2021 11:54 am

:uarrow:

Ntxw and orangeblood -- two of our most astute winter weather folks -- are right about the pattern later in January into February. Pretty much everyone (pro mets who watch long range patterns) nationally saying the same. Pattern change upcoming and a much colder one at that. There will be other opportunities for Texas and the Metroplex.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2076 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Mon Jan 11, 2021 12:04 pm

Ensembles 10+ days out looks very promising.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2077 Postby Ralph's Weather » Mon Jan 11, 2021 12:36 pm

Ntxw wrote:
orangeblood wrote:
Lagreeneyes03 wrote:
Seems to be dissipating about halfway thru Denton co.. North Fort Worth, North Tarrant will also be screwed on this one. The only way to rectify this is another event which dumps 10 inches on my area and an inch on everyone else, just because. And none for anyone south of Burleson and west of FW


Lol :D definitely one of the more frustrating winter storms I can remember for DFW folks, the model analyzing was even worse!! But now onto the next one....

One things we've been lacking so far this winter is Arctic Air, most of these cold spells are modified Canadian origin airmasses. It looks like that may change towards the 2nd half of January. The teleconnection indices are showing the EPO and WPO look like they may go negative in 7-10 days. This could finally begin setting the stage for Arctic HPs to influence our weather pattern across the lower 48. GEFS reflecting this in week 2

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2021011106/gfs-ens_mslpaNormMean_namer_12.png


It's been well modeled we just haven't talked about. There is a SE ridge with the coming -EPO episode so the risk for an ice storm is elevated. it's going to lean more Nina like with the dagger cold in the middle of the country and Rockies. Perhaps the persistent -AO will assist with deeper cold for more opportunities of snow.

This will end up ending the wet period though, correct?
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2078 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Jan 11, 2021 12:40 pm

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:Ensembles 10+ days out looks very promising.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2021011106/gfs-ens_z500a_namer_46.png


Damn! :cold:
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2079 Postby rwfromkansas » Mon Jan 11, 2021 12:54 pm

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think a little SE ridge can be good. Just don't want a big ridge close by, as that's when we have issues with ice. It would figure that we would finally get a track perfect for DFW and it would be an ice storm. Lol.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2080 Postby Brandon8181 » Mon Jan 11, 2021 1:20 pm

Icon showing alittle snow in the 6-10 day outlook in the hill country. Worth watching.
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