Texas Winter 2020-2021

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Yukon Cornelius
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2121 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Tue Jan 12, 2021 10:09 pm

gpsnowman wrote:So far this winter, temps have been about average. No real torchy days save maybe one or two. Each mini warm up is followed by a cool or cold front keeping a pleasant winter feel so far. And the winter storms so far have been impressive although not for DFW. But what I am in the mood for is a major arctic dump. I want some serious cold. I'm talking about a true blue norther direct from mother Russia with nasty wind chills cold enough to make my wife want to pack up and move to Mexico(she hates cold weather, I don't want her to move). Temps in the teens and twenties for a few days with a nice snow that sticks around more than a day would be ideal. Not yet "half" over, this season could have a few more surprises.

Heck yeah! :froze:
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2122 Postby Cpv17 » Tue Jan 12, 2021 10:42 pm

Iceresistance wrote:This looks interesting by the end of this month

The High Pressure zones up at Alaska, Canada, & Greenland could cause a Arctic invasion here by February even though it's very far out.

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslpaNorm_namer_65.png

Also, 2 Meter Temperature is showing a extremely cold air mass coming into Alaska from Russia towards the end of January, could come down in the next few weeks after moving into Alaska, it's a wait & see for this potental Polar Plunge.

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/gfs_T2m_namer_fh294-384.gif


It’s been consistently showing that in the long range for a while now. It’s certainly trying to sniff out something.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2123 Postby txtwister78 » Tue Jan 12, 2021 11:02 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:This looks interesting by the end of this month

The High Pressure zones up at Alaska, Canada, & Greenland could cause a Arctic invasion here by February even though it's very far out.

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslpaNorm_namer_65.png

Also, 2 Meter Temperature is showing a extremely cold air mass coming into Alaska from Russia towards the end of January, could come down in the next few weeks after moving into Alaska, it's a wait & see for this potental Polar Plunge.

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/gfs_T2m_namer_fh294-384.gif


It’s been consistently showing that in the long range for a while now. It’s certainly trying to sniff out something.


Image

The wild card in the pattern is going to be the -PNA (SE Ridging). That signal could bottle up some of the cold for a bit and create a real battle zone. The good news is the pattern should remain active and as long as the NAO and AO cooperate (EPO potentially going negative), we should still be in business going forward with hopefully the cold eventually winning out. Still some hope with this setup.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2124 Postby Brent » Wed Jan 13, 2021 12:24 am

Yukon Cornelius wrote:
gpsnowman wrote:So far this winter, temps have been about average. No real torchy days save maybe one or two. Each mini warm up is followed by a cool or cold front keeping a pleasant winter feel so far. And the winter storms so far have been impressive although not for DFW. But what I am in the mood for is a major arctic dump. I want some serious cold. I'm talking about a true blue norther direct from mother Russia with nasty wind chills cold enough to make my wife want to pack up and move to Mexico(she hates cold weather, I don't want her to move). Temps in the teens and twenties for a few days with a nice snow that sticks around more than a day would be ideal. Not yet "half" over, this season could have a few more surprises.

Heck yeah! :froze:


funny yall mention this... I wasn't here in 2011 but someone had mentioned it was 10 years ago the other day(there was a winter storm that barely missed DFW then too ironically with Sulphur Springs measuring 6 inches!) and I started looking back at the Super Bowl 2011 week... now that sounds impressive. Havent seen anything like that since I've been here. 5 mornings in a row below 20! We've had some winters lately not get below 20 at all :lol: There was one day with a HIGH of 20! :double: 100 hours below freezing(again here lately we've been lucky to get one day below)...

oh and that was also a La Nina... so who knows what's to come still
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2125 Postby TheProfessor » Wed Jan 13, 2021 12:46 am

Brent wrote:
Yukon Cornelius wrote:
gpsnowman wrote:So far this winter, temps have been about average. No real torchy days save maybe one or two. Each mini warm up is followed by a cool or cold front keeping a pleasant winter feel so far. And the winter storms so far have been impressive although not for DFW. But what I am in the mood for is a major arctic dump. I want some serious cold. I'm talking about a true blue norther direct from mother Russia with nasty wind chills cold enough to make my wife want to pack up and move to Mexico(she hates cold weather, I don't want her to move). Temps in the teens and twenties for a few days with a nice snow that sticks around more than a day would be ideal. Not yet "half" over, this season could have a few more surprises.

Heck yeah! :froze:


funny yall mention this... I wasn't here in 2011 but someone had mentioned it was 10 years ago the other day(there was a winter storm that barely missed DFW then too ironically with Sulphur Springs measuring 6 inches!) and I started looking back at the Super Bowl 2011 week... now that sounds impressive. Havent seen anything like that since I've been here. 5 mornings in a row below 20! We've had some winters lately not get below 20 at all :lol: There was one day with a HIGH of 20! :double: 100 hours below freezing(again here lately we've been lucky to get one day below)...

oh and that was also a La Nina... so who knows what's to come still


The first storm that dropped snow and sleet was great, but it was that little shortwave that moved over at the end of the week that dropped another 6" at my house that really made it special. I remember waking up so ecstatic when I saw the snow well up against the window. It was so surprising. My friends and I went sledding later that day. It definitely ended up being one of my favorite winter events. I believe as late as the day before FWD only had 20% PoPs for my area.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2126 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Jan 13, 2021 5:24 am

txtwister78 wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:This looks interesting by the end of this month

The High Pressure zones up at Alaska, Canada, & Greenland could cause a Arctic invasion here by February even though it's very far out.

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslpaNorm_namer_65.png

Also, 2 Meter Temperature is showing a extremely cold air mass coming into Alaska from Russia towards the end of January, could come down in the next few weeks after moving into Alaska, it's a wait & see for this potental Polar Plunge.

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/gfs_T2m_namer_fh294-384.gif


It’s been consistently showing that in the long range for a while now. It’s certainly trying to sniff out something.


https://images.weatherbell.com/oscillation/ecmwf-ensemble-nhem-avg/pna/box/1610452800-yk0i2f169wc.png

The wild card in the pattern is going to be the -PNA (SE Ridging). That signal could bottle up some of the cold for a bit and create a real battle zone. The good news is the pattern should remain active and as long as the NAO and AO cooperate (EPO potentially going negative), we should still be in business going forward with hopefully the cold eventually winning out. Still some hope with this setup.


It's currently the -AO & -NAO, & it's been like that for a while

The NAO has turned Negative around Last week of December, and it's going to be that way for a while for the next 2 weeks

Image

Odds of snow are higher here with a Negative NAO, now when does the PNA become negative is when EVERYTHING might stack up for a arctic surge . . . :froze:
(The PNA had been positive since November, but the models are showing a -PNA around the last week of January.
(As mentioned up there by a PDF from txtwister78. Either way, thanks for the map :D))
Also, the AO turned Negative around December 1st, 2020. But right now, it's going less negative even though the models are very consistant on a rise to low negative levels before dipping back down, very uncertain on the 7 & 14-Day range.
Image

Negative AO means more Arctic Invasions here :cold:
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2127 Postby cheezyWXguy » Wed Jan 13, 2021 7:11 am

TheProfessor wrote:
Brent wrote:
Yukon Cornelius wrote:Heck yeah! :froze:


funny yall mention this... I wasn't here in 2011 but someone had mentioned it was 10 years ago the other day(there was a winter storm that barely missed DFW then too ironically with Sulphur Springs measuring 6 inches!) and I started looking back at the Super Bowl 2011 week... now that sounds impressive. Havent seen anything like that since I've been here. 5 mornings in a row below 20! We've had some winters lately not get below 20 at all :lol: There was one day with a HIGH of 20! :double: 100 hours below freezing(again here lately we've been lucky to get one day below)...

oh and that was also a La Nina... so who knows what's to come still


The first storm that dropped snow and sleet was great, but it was that little shortwave that moved over at the end of the week that dropped another 6" at my house that really made it special. I remember waking up so ecstatic when I saw the snow well up against the window. It was so surprising. My friends and I went sledding later that day. It definitely ended up being one of my favorite winter events. I believe as late as the day before FWD only had 20% PoPs for my area.

The snow that fell with the second system was the most powdery snow I’ve ever seen in Texas, made it feel like I lived on a mountain that night. We got about 6 inches of it where I lived at the time. I tried to jump into a pile of it that collected in front of my house, and the snow was so powdery that my feet immediately pushed through to the cobblestone ice below and I slipped pretty good. Good times, that’s the last time I saw more than an inch of snow living in Texas.

If I remember right, the reason precip chances were so low was because the bullseye was supposed to be down in central Texas near college station. However, there was just enough moisture up north to create some pretty incredible ratios (near 20:1 if I remember correctly?) in sub-20 degree temps.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2128 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Jan 13, 2021 8:34 am

The Ground is pure white with heavy frost, down to 26 F
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2129 Postby orangeblood » Wed Jan 13, 2021 9:01 am

Iceresistance wrote:
txtwister78 wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
It’s been consistently showing that in the long range for a while now. It’s certainly trying to sniff out something.


https://images.weatherbell.com/oscillation/ecmwf-ensemble-nhem-avg/pna/box/1610452800-yk0i2f169wc.png

The wild card in the pattern is going to be the -PNA (SE Ridging). That signal could bottle up some of the cold for a bit and create a real battle zone. The good news is the pattern should remain active and as long as the NAO and AO cooperate (EPO potentially going negative), we should still be in business going forward with hopefully the cold eventually winning out. Still some hope with this setup.


It's currently the -AO & -NAO, & it's been like that for a while

The NAO has turned Negative around Last week of December, and it's going to be that way for a while for the next 2 weeks

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/nao.sprd2.gif

Odds of snow are higher here with a Negative NAO, now when does the PNA become negative is when EVERYTHING might stack up for a arctic surge . . . :froze:
(The PNA had been positive since November, but the models are showing a -PNA around the last week of January.
(As mentioned up there by a PDF from txtwister78. Either way, thanks for the map :D))
Also, the AO turned Negative around December 1st, 2020. But right now, it's going less negative even though the models are very consistant on a rise to low negative levels before dipping back down, very uncertain on the 7 & 14-Day range.
https://s2.gifyu.com/images/ao.sprd2.gif

Negative AO means more Arctic Invasions here :cold:


All of these indices play a role but we've found over the years that by far, the negative EPO is King of Cold in the southern plains. Until that goes negative, it will be difficult to get any sustainable cold this far south.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2130 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Jan 13, 2021 10:01 am

orangeblood wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
txtwister78 wrote:
https://images.weatherbell.com/oscillation/ecmwf-ensemble-nhem-avg/pna/box/1610452800-yk0i2f169wc.png

The wild card in the pattern is going to be the -PNA (SE Ridging). That signal could bottle up some of the cold for a bit and create a real battle zone. The good news is the pattern should remain active and as long as the NAO and AO cooperate (EPO potentially going negative), we should still be in business going forward with hopefully the cold eventually winning out. Still some hope with this setup.


It's currently the -AO & -NAO, & it's been like that for a while

The NAO has turned Negative around Last week of December, and it's going to be that way for a while for the next 2 weeks

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/nao.sprd2.gif

Odds of snow are higher here with a Negative NAO, now when does the PNA become negative is when EVERYTHING might stack up for a arctic surge . . . :froze:
(The PNA had been positive since November, but the models are showing a -PNA around the last week of January.
(As mentioned up there by a PDF from txtwister78. Either way, thanks for the map :D))
Also, the AO turned Negative around December 1st, 2020. But right now, it's going less negative even though the models are very consistant on a rise to low negative levels before dipping back down, very uncertain on the 7 & 14-Day range.
https://s2.gifyu.com/images/ao.sprd2.gif

Negative AO means more Arctic Invasions here :cold:


All of these indices play a role but we've found over the years that by far, the negative EPO is King of Cold in the southern plains. Until that goes negative, it will be difficult to get any sustainable cold this far south.

https://images.weatherbell.com/oscillation/ecmwf-ensemble-nhem-avg/epo/box/1610496000-jyLCC4lmYFM.png


And a neutral PNA.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2131 Postby Cerlin » Wed Jan 13, 2021 10:30 am

I had so much frost this morning that my windshield was fully covered in a slushy ice, meaning I technically got more frozen accumulation overnight than I have all winter :roll: :P
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2132 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Jan 13, 2021 11:51 am

orangeblood wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
txtwister78 wrote:
https://images.weatherbell.com/oscillation/ecmwf-ensemble-nhem-avg/pna/box/1610452800-yk0i2f169wc.png

The wild card in the pattern is going to be the -PNA (SE Ridging). That signal could bottle up some of the cold for a bit and create a real battle zone. The good news is the pattern should remain active and as long as the NAO and AO cooperate (EPO potentially going negative), we should still be in business going forward with hopefully the cold eventually winning out. Still some hope with this setup.


It's currently the -AO & -NAO, & it's been like that for a while

The NAO has turned Negative around Last week of December, and it's going to be that way for a while for the next 2 weeks

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/nao.sprd2.gif

Odds of snow are higher here with a Negative NAO, now when does the PNA become negative is when EVERYTHING might stack up for a arctic surge . . . :froze:
(The PNA had been positive since November, but the models are showing a -PNA around the last week of January.
(As mentioned up there by a PDF from txtwister78. Either way, thanks for the map :D))
Also, the AO turned Negative around December 1st, 2020. But right now, it's going less negative even though the models are very consistant on a rise to low negative levels before dipping back down, very uncertain on the 7 & 14-Day range.
https://s2.gifyu.com/images/ao.sprd2.gif

Negative AO means more Arctic Invasions here :cold:


All of these indices play a role but we've found over the years that by far, the negative EPO is King of Cold in the southern plains. Until that goes negative, it will be difficult to get any sustainable cold this far south.

https://images.weatherbell.com/oscillation/ecmwf-ensemble-nhem-avg/epo/box/1610496000-jyLCC4lmYFM.png

Even though the EPO going to be close to negative in the next few days until it switches by the end of this month. Does it seem like that everything is setting up for a massive arctic surge that is going to last a while with a Negative AO, NAO, PNA, & maybe the EPO?
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2133 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Wed Jan 13, 2021 11:57 am

Its sniffing out a huge arctic dump for sure. PV hanging on or just west of Hudson Bay is a prime location for it as well.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2134 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Jan 13, 2021 12:52 pm

Good grief, the 12z GFS wants a Arctic invasion by the last week of this month!

Image

Very strong blocking over Greenland & Alaska when the Arctic invasion shows itself

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2135 Postby cheezyWXguy » Wed Jan 13, 2021 1:52 pm

Iceresistance wrote:Good grief, the 12z GFS wants a Arctic invasion by the last week of this month!

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/gfs_T2m_us_fh246-384.gif

Very strong blocking over Greenland & Alaska when the Arctic invasion shows itself
https://s2.gifyu.com/images/GFS-model-Geopotental-Height.gif


That run looks better the further out it goes, I’m liking how the trough bends out west over the NW US at the end. Too bad it’s so far out, well have to keep checking
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2136 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Jan 13, 2021 2:08 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:Good grief, the 12z GFS wants a Arctic invasion by the last week of this month!

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/gfs_T2m_us_fh246-384.gif

Very strong blocking over Greenland & Alaska when the Arctic invasion shows itself
https://s2.gifyu.com/images/GFS-model-Geopotental-Height.gif


That run looks better the further out it goes, I’m liking how the trough bends out west over the NW US at the end. Too bad it’s so far out, well have to keep checking

Yes, this potental polar blast is towards the end of this month, which is 2 weeks away. This is the waiting game right now.

(Also, prepare for windy weather starting Tomorrow!)
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2137 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Jan 13, 2021 8:03 pm

Negative PNA much? Maybe too negative. And wow the blocking up north :double:

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2138 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Jan 14, 2021 8:48 am

Blocking over Greenland & Alaska weakens just as the Arctic Air (In 2 waves) comes here

Image

The 2 waves of Cold Air is shown by the Temperature

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2139 Postby orangeblood » Thu Jan 14, 2021 9:04 am

Iceresistance wrote:Blocking over Greenland & Alaska weakens just as the Arctic Air (In 2 waves) comes here

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/GFS-6z-500mb-Geopotential-Height.gif

The 2 waves of Cold Air is shown by the Temperature

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/GFS-6z-2m-Temperature.gif


Arctic Air is showing up on our side of the Globe finally but until we get a decent negative EPO tank, going to be very difficult to push this far south. Particularly with a negative PNA, too much southwest flow to overcome!!
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2140 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Jan 14, 2021 9:13 am

orangeblood wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:Blocking over Greenland & Alaska weakens just as the Arctic Air (In 2 waves) comes here

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/GFS-6z-500mb-Geopotential-Height.gif

The 2 waves of Cold Air is shown by the Temperature

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/GFS-6z-2m-Temperature.gif


Arctic Air is showing up on our side of the Globe finally but until we get a decent negative EPO tank, going to be very difficult to push this far south. Particularly with a negative PNA, too much southwest flow to overcome!!



Keep in mind that it's 2 weeks away, the EPO has time to change unexpectly. Right now, it's the waiting game
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