Texas Winter 2020-2021

Winter Weather Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
Shoshana
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1399
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: NE Austin

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#7441 Postby Shoshana » Sat Feb 20, 2021 9:25 pm

BTAYLOR5021 wrote:Is North Texas out of the woods for the remaining time frame of winter regarding snow/cold temps?


Historically no.
2 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 35254
Age: 32
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: DFW
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#7442 Postby Brent » Sat Feb 20, 2021 9:38 pm

Shoshana wrote:
BTAYLOR5021 wrote:Is North Texas out of the woods for the remaining time frame of winter regarding snow/cold temps?


Historically no.


My first winter here it snowed in March
2 likes   
#neversummer

User avatar
TheAustinMan
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 951
Age: 21
Joined: Mon Jul 08, 2013 4:26 pm
Location: SW Austin, TX
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#7443 Postby TheAustinMan » Sat Feb 20, 2021 10:04 pm

A little recap I made of the cold snap. There was a lot to keep track of, so let me know if something's off. Probably a few things will change as more information comes to light. You can find the full-resolution version on this link.

Minimum temperatures during the period are based on the NCEP Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis, which has been pretty accurate but might be off by a few degrees for some localities. The snow contours I've drawn are based very roughly on a lot of things... the NOAA National Snowfall Analysis, the maps from WFOs, LSRs, station reports... turns out it's very hard to make a snow accumulation map when a bunch of reports give conflicting estimates within miles of each other. Oh well. Hope the general idea is there.

Source: Graphic generated by me, with data from a bunch of different sources.
Image

Here's the minimum temperature map again with the familiar Tropical Tidbits temperature color scheme and a few contours penned in:

Source: Graphic generated by me, with data from RTMA. RTMA raw gridded data is available at this FTP link, though recent hourly data is offered in a more digestible form at Pivotal Weather if you're ever looking for a quick snapshot of the state of the weather.
Image

Still no water here in Austin. Hoping that changes this weekend as the thaw appears to have taken care of most of snow and icepack from the week. Aside from a few local areas in the Panhandle and Northeastern Texas, the HRRR shows most of Texas remaining above freezing tonight.
26 likes   
ImageImageImage
- Treat my opinions with a grain of salt. For official information see your local weather service.
- In the summer I'm in Austin, Texas; otherwise I'm in college in upstate New York (except this year due to COVID19)

User avatar
cheezyWXguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4144
Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2006 12:29 am
Location: Dallas, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#7444 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sat Feb 20, 2021 10:10 pm

TheAustinMan wrote:A little recap I made of the cold snap. There was a lot to keep track of, so let me know if something's off. Probably a few things will change as more information comes to light. You can find the full-resolution version on this link.

Minimum temperatures during the period are based on the NCEP Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis, which has been pretty accurate but might be off by a few degrees for some localities. The snow contours I've drawn are based very roughly on a lot of things... the NOAA National Snowfall Analysis, the maps from WFOs, LSRs, station reports... turns out it's very hard to make a snow accumulation map when a bunch of reports give conflicting estimates within miles of each other. Oh well. Hope the general idea is there.

Source: Graphic generated by me, with data from a bunch of different sources.
https://i.imgur.com/5RLlvOy.jpg

Here's the minimum temperature map again with the familiar Tropical Tidbits temperature color scheme and a few contours penned in:

Source: Graphic generated by me, with data from RTMA. RTMA raw gridded data is available at this FTP link, though recent hourly data is offered in a more digestible form at Pivotal Weather if you're ever looking for a quick snapshot of the state of the weather.
https://i.imgur.com/65UI2Rc.png

Still no water here in Austin. Hoping that changes this weekend as the thaw appears to have taken care of most of snow and icepack from the week. Aside from a few local areas in the Panhandle and Northeastern Texas, the HRRR shows most of Texas remaining above freezing tonight.

This is fantastic, really nice work
1 likes   

User avatar
Texas Snow
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 520
Joined: Mon Oct 19, 2015 12:06 pm
Location: N. Dallas & Cedar Creek Lake

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#7445 Postby Texas Snow » Sat Feb 20, 2021 10:31 pm

TheAustinMan wrote:A little recap I made of the cold snap. There was a lot to keep track of, so let me know if something's off. Probably a few things will change as more information comes to light. You can find the full-resolution version on this link.

Minimum temperatures during the period are based on the NCEP Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis, which has been pretty accurate but might be off by a few degrees for some localities. The snow contours I've drawn are based very roughly on a lot of things... the NOAA National Snowfall Analysis, the maps from WFOs, LSRs, station reports... turns out it's very hard to make a snow accumulation map when a bunch of reports give conflicting estimates within miles of each other. Oh well. Hope the general idea is there.

Source: Graphic generated by me, with data from a bunch of different sources.
https://i.imgur.com/5RLlvOy.jpg

Here's the minimum temperature map again with the familiar Tropical Tidbits temperature color scheme and a few contours penned in:

Source: Graphic generated by me, with data from RTMA. RTMA raw gridded data is available at this FTP link, though recent hourly data is offered in a more digestible form at Pivotal Weather if you're ever looking for a quick snapshot of the state of the weather.
https://i.imgur.com/65UI2Rc.png

Still no water here in Austin. Hoping that changes this weekend as the thaw appears to have taken care of most of snow and icepack from the week. Aside from a few local areas in the Panhandle and Northeastern Texas, the HRRR shows most of Texas remaining above freezing tonight.


Outfreakingstanding!
1 likes   

TexasBreeze
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 72
Joined: Mon Jul 07, 2014 12:50 pm

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#7446 Postby TexasBreeze » Sat Feb 20, 2021 10:34 pm

That is seriously the whole entire event in a nutshell!!! Good map for a historical documentation!
1 likes   

User avatar
Haris
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1438
Joined: Mon Nov 27, 2017 8:19 pm
Location: ( Bee Cave) West Austin, Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#7447 Postby Haris » Sat Feb 20, 2021 11:21 pm

Dont mind me, just saving that graphic to my camera roll.

Fantastic work buddy! Honored that you shared it with us!!! Must have taken a long time to craft. Beautiful layout
3 likes   
Weather geek and a storm spotter in West Austin. Not a degreed meteorologist. Big snow fan. Love rain and cold! Despise heat!

User avatar
South Texas Storms
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3642
Joined: Thu Jun 24, 2010 12:28 am
Location: Houston, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#7448 Postby South Texas Storms » Sat Feb 20, 2021 11:25 pm

TheAustinMan wrote:A little recap I made of the cold snap. There was a lot to keep track of, so let me know if something's off. Probably a few things will change as more information comes to light. You can find the full-resolution version on this link.

Minimum temperatures during the period are based on the NCEP Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis, which has been pretty accurate but might be off by a few degrees for some localities. The snow contours I've drawn are based very roughly on a lot of things... the NOAA National Snowfall Analysis, the maps from WFOs, LSRs, station reports... turns out it's very hard to make a snow accumulation map when a bunch of reports give conflicting estimates within miles of each other. Oh well. Hope the general idea is there.

Source: Graphic generated by me, with data from a bunch of different sources.
https://i.imgur.com/5RLlvOy.jpg

Here's the minimum temperature map again with the familiar Tropical Tidbits temperature color scheme and a few contours penned in:

Source: Graphic generated by me, with data from RTMA. RTMA raw gridded data is available at this FTP link, though recent hourly data is offered in a more digestible form at Pivotal Weather if you're ever looking for a quick snapshot of the state of the weather.
https://i.imgur.com/65UI2Rc.png

Still no water here in Austin. Hoping that changes this weekend as the thaw appears to have taken care of most of snow and icepack from the week. Aside from a few local areas in the Panhandle and Northeastern Texas, the HRRR shows most of Texas remaining above freezing tonight.


This is awesome. Good work and thanks so much for sharing!
1 likes   

User avatar
jasons2k
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 7692
Age: 47
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:32 pm
Location: The Woodlands, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#7449 Postby jasons2k » Sat Feb 20, 2021 11:45 pm

Shoshana wrote:
BTAYLOR5021 wrote:Is North Texas out of the woods for the remaining time frame of winter regarding snow/cold temps?


Historically no.


As Harold Taft used to say...not until the mesquite trees start to bloom.
4 likes   

richtrav
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 177
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:48 pm
Location: South Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#7450 Postby richtrav » Sun Feb 21, 2021 1:54 am

I haven’t checked in lately, did I miss anything?
0 likes   

User avatar
cheezyWXguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4144
Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2006 12:29 am
Location: Dallas, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#7451 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun Feb 21, 2021 8:49 am

Looks like the 6z GFS is trying to make the March 1 system a winter weather threat for ntx and ok, while the 0z looked more like a severe weather threat. Looks like it will be interesting either way
0 likes   

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1916
Age: 17
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021, early thoughts on Storm Season 2021

#7452 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Feb 21, 2021 8:56 am

cheezyWXguy wrote:
Cerlin wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:Direct Weather has posted the offical forecast for Storm Season 2021, it's looking very scary. :eek:

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/Screenshot-2021-02-20-at-3.48.59-PM.png

(Confidence level is higher, around 80% now)

Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-1oQWu1Jpzc

Just as a disclaimer, DirectWeather isn’t very trustworthy in the weather community. They do a LOT of things for clicks and have a lot of bombastic thumbnails (calling a 1 inch snowstorm a major, damaging storm) and, at least on weather twitter, always gets a lot of just criticism for being way too reactionary and alarmist. Doesn’t mean that the severe weather season won’t be severe but I’d avoid posting them on here because they’re not really trustworthy. :cheesy:

I agree, I watched some of his videos during last year’s severe season and was disappointed when on several occasions he would just do a jazzed up version of the SPC’s convective outlook and call it his own prediction

They have changed a LOT since then, they became more conservative & because of forecasting issues they faced (And very unhappy Subscribers from failed forecasts), they decided to put out the "Confidence Level" recently (I've subscribed to them since 2019, & yes, they were aggressive back then, but they have changed) to see how likely it's going to happen, based on Model consistancy, how far away it is, & the margin of error on the totals . . .
0 likes   
Erin 2008 & Bill 2015

February 2021 Storm of the Century
2020 October Ice Storm

Plus many Oklahoma Supercells

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas

My posts are NOT endorsed by S2K, NWS or NHC. Please look up the SPC, NHC & NWS for more info.

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1916
Age: 17
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#7453 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Feb 21, 2021 9:17 am

0 likes   
Erin 2008 & Bill 2015

February 2021 Storm of the Century
2020 October Ice Storm

Plus many Oklahoma Supercells

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas

My posts are NOT endorsed by S2K, NWS or NHC. Please look up the SPC, NHC & NWS for more info.

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 20111
Age: 63
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#7454 Postby wxman57 » Sun Feb 21, 2021 9:21 am

Haris wrote:Yall its the ICON!!! No question. Nailed the forecast here EVERYDAY. Only model that showed Austin below freezing straight beg. Thu AM


ICON was the worst model for Houston, by far. Had our temps falling to below zero. Lowest was 13.
4 likes   

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1916
Age: 17
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#7455 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Feb 21, 2021 10:24 am

6z GFS

Image

24-hour Kuchera Ratio Snowfall (The Ratios in Oklahoma are between 11:1 & 21:1)

Image
0 likes   
Erin 2008 & Bill 2015

February 2021 Storm of the Century
2020 October Ice Storm

Plus many Oklahoma Supercells

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas

My posts are NOT endorsed by S2K, NWS or NHC. Please look up the SPC, NHC & NWS for more info.

Brandon8181
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 332
Age: 37
Joined: Tue Jan 04, 2011 4:52 pm
Location: Tyler, TX
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#7456 Postby Brandon8181 » Sun Feb 21, 2021 11:01 am

Good morning,

Is there a link here for for Spring weather discussion, tornadoes, severe spring weather, storm spotting equipment, etc?

Thank you so much.
0 likes   
I am not a meteorologist. Any post from me should be taken as hobby or fun educational information, but not an accurate source for weather information. Please, refer to your local weather station or National Weather Service for the most up to date information. :flag:

User avatar
cheezyWXguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4144
Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2006 12:29 am
Location: Dallas, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#7457 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun Feb 21, 2021 11:25 am

Brandon8181 wrote:Good morning,

Is there a link here for for Spring weather discussion, tornadoes, severe spring weather, storm spotting equipment, etc?

Thank you so much.


I know there’s a general severe weather thread for the upcoming season in the USA weather section, but I don’t see much on in-depth storm spotting/chasing.

A few resources I’ve found over time:
https://www.reddit.com/r/stormchasing/
(The stickied posts/sidebar are good)
https://youtu.be/bq0-QXXtOro

https://youtu.be/WL7jc4-03Uc

https://youtu.be/IUIhoR0HRGM

Disclaimer: none of these are official sources. As a prerequisite to any chasing/spotting, sign up for a spotter training seminar. They’re free and can be found on your local nws forecasting office website. Dfw link here:
[url] https://www.weather.gov/fwd/skywarnmap[url/]
2 likes   

Brandon8181
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 332
Age: 37
Joined: Tue Jan 04, 2011 4:52 pm
Location: Tyler, TX
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#7458 Postby Brandon8181 » Sun Feb 21, 2021 11:38 am

cheezyWXguy wrote:
Brandon8181 wrote:Good morning,

Is there a link here for for Spring weather discussion, tornadoes, severe spring weather, storm spotting equipment, etc?

Thank you so much.


I know there’s a general severe weather thread for the upcoming season in the USA weather section, but I don’t see much on in-depth storm spotting/chasing.

A few resources I’ve found over time:
https://www.reddit.com/r/stormchasing/
(The stickied posts/sidebar are good)
https://youtu.be/bq0-QXXtOro

https://youtu.be/WL7jc4-03Uc

https://youtu.be/IUIhoR0HRGM

Disclaimer: none of these are official sources. As a prerequisite to any chasing/spotting, sign up for a spotter training seminar. They’re free and can be found on your local nws forecasting office website. Dfw link here:
[url] https://www.weather.gov/fwd/skywarnmap[url/]


Thank you sir!
0 likes   
I am not a meteorologist. Any post from me should be taken as hobby or fun educational information, but not an accurate source for weather information. Please, refer to your local weather station or National Weather Service for the most up to date information. :flag:

User avatar
cheezyWXguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4144
Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2006 12:29 am
Location: Dallas, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#7459 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun Feb 21, 2021 12:51 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:Looks like the 6z GFS is trying to make the March 1 system a winter weather threat for ntx and ok, while the 0z looked more like a severe weather threat. Looks like it will be interesting either way


I know these are fairly long range predictions, and that the situation will change a million times before then, but this March 1 system keeps catching my eye on the gfs.

If it holds together, I’m thinking less of a last chance winter weather threat and more of a severe weather threat for ntx. The coupling of the 500mb jet streak with the subtropical jet looks quite favorable on the 12z gfs, with moisture and instability present. If it digs a little bit further south and slows a couple of hours (note: the gfs tends to underdo this due to its progressive bias), it would make for quite a start to our severe season.
0 likes   

Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 18221
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#7460 Postby Ntxw » Sun Feb 21, 2021 12:54 pm

Barring some kind of monstrous heat wave this week, February for DFW is 34.6F so far for the monthly average. It is going to be the first sub 40F month since December 2000. I like to use that as a metric for an exceptionally cold month. Even the cold winters of 09-10 and 13-14 did not feature such a month.

Of modern history here are the few months that have achieved such a status. Some elite winters. One subtle common theme, except for the late 70s..they are more likely to occur in a...La Nina than El Nino. Often accompanied by a severe -EPO or -AO.

February 2021...?

December 2000
December 1989
January 1985
January 1984
December 1983
January 1979
February 1978
January 1978 <- 33.8 (record coldest month for DFW)
January 1977
January 1963
January 1962
January 1949
January 1940
January 1930
February 1929
January 1918
December 1914
December 1909
February 1905
January 1905
February 1899


One thing is certain, all of the 0F (there are only 5 including this year) or lower readings have occurred on years exclusive to this list.

Edit: 2021 is also joins 1899, 1918, and 1989 with 2 top 10 lowest temperature readings on record. -2F and 4F.
6 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

  Help support Storm2K!
Help Support Storm2K


Return to “Winter Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: TexasBreeze, WxGeek and 5 guests