Deep South/Southeast Winter 2020-21

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Hammy
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Deep South/Southeast Winter 2020-21

#1 Postby Hammy » Tue Dec 01, 2020 5:11 am

Starting the thread as we've gotten a significant start to the winter season. Massive cold outbreak underway in the southeast, Georgia's expecting temps in the middle 20s for the next several mornings, and tomorrow isn't going to make it out of the 40s despite being cloud free.

Been windy and cold all day, and we had scattered snow drizzle where I am with Atlanta getting some accumulation.

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First time since I've lived here at least that there's been any frozen precip in November, as it initially started moving in around 8pm.
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Re: Deep South/Southeast Winter 2020-21

#2 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Tue Dec 15, 2020 7:17 pm

Discuss chance of snow :D
Maybe a White Christmas dare I say???
:froze: :cold: :ggreen: :ggreen: :ggreen:
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Re: Deep South/Southeast Winter 2020-21

#3 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Fri Dec 18, 2020 9:47 am

Models look strong for a blast of cold air across much of Georgia with lows in the teens.
Whether or not snow accompanies that remains to be seen but Fingers crossed! :cheesy:

If the storm deepens faster it may draw the cold air behind it in faster which would mean quite some snow. This might be our only shot all winter.
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Re: Deep South/Southeast Winter 2020-21

#4 Postby NXStumpy_Robothing » Fri Dec 18, 2020 7:35 pm

InfernoFlameCat wrote:Models look strong for a blast of cold air across much of Georgia with lows in the teens.
Whether or not snow accompanies that remains to be seen but Fingers crossed! :cheesy:

If the storm deepens faster it may draw the cold air behind it in faster which would mean quite some snow. This might be our only shot all winter.

Well, a bit odd for my state alone to have a thread when there's generally a southeast winter thread, but I'll bite; as for the bolded text, Georgia usually has its best shots of snow during the winter in something like January or February, not December. I'm not optimistic about a Christmas shot, seeing as the modeled system appears to be a quickly-moving front attached to a low that's too far north to get good cold advection (with sufficient moisture) on the back side. We'll see if that can shift and if the forecasted energy off the California coast can migrate its way ENE.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1339711292362375171


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Re: Deep South/Southeast Winter 2020-21

#5 Postby shannstone » Mon Dec 21, 2020 9:49 pm

Well this is a bummer, I was trying not to have too much hope, but it got the best of me and I have been quiet and hopeful that it would come to fruition here in the northern suburbs. Doesn't appear likely. Oh well, hope everyone has a Merry Christmas or happy holidays!
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Re: Deep South/Southeast Winter 2020-21

#6 Postby NXStumpy_Robothing » Tue Dec 22, 2020 6:20 am

shannstone wrote:Well this is a bummer, I was trying not to have too much hope, but it got the best of me and I have been quiet and hopeful that it would come to fruition here in the northern suburbs. Doesn't appear likely. Oh well, hope everyone has a Merry Christmas or happy holidays!

A Happy Holidays to you as well. As for the weather - yeah, I wasn't optimistic with the synoptic setup in place, and with the front appearing to move through the area sooner and more quickly... suffice to say I don't find a snowy scenario all that likely.

If you want to be super hopeful, then look at the 06z GFS or the 0z CMC - has a quickly-advancing cold air surge on the back end which could lead to some actual measurable snow for the northern suburbs of Atlanta and the mountain regions. It all comes down to the timing of the front - if we get a later moisture surge and a slightly quicker shortwave, then it's not quite impossible for there to be some actual snow. I'm not counting on it though. I think the best one can realistically hope for is a few flurries Christmas Eve, but even that seems like a longshot. It definitely will be cold, though.
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Re: Deep South/Southeast Winter 2020-21

#7 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Wed Dec 23, 2020 9:20 pm

Unfortunately I have to agree. I live in Buford Ga so in the foothills so maybe some flurries for me but nothing sticking. New years looks better though so Ill be hopeful about that. :cheesy:
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Re: Deep South/Southeast Winter 2020-21

#8 Postby NXStumpy_Robothing » Thu Dec 24, 2020 4:47 pm

Well, I'll be damned. We actually managed to get some flakes from this thing in the NW suburbs of Atlanta. Nothing to stick so far (and probably not at any point), but there's something special about getting snow in any capacity here. :D
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Re: Deep South/Southeast Winter 2020-21

#9 Postby shannstone » Thu Dec 24, 2020 5:19 pm

Im in Woodstock and I'll take what I can get, even if its just for a little while. So pretty!
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Re: Deep South/Southeast Winter 2020-21

#10 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Thu Dec 24, 2020 6:30 pm

I got some snow that stuck!!!
More snow bands developing in Alabama headed our way as well!!!
Maybe a half inch on the ground. enough that the ground is patchy white.
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Re: Deep South/Southeast Winter 2020-21

#11 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Sat Dec 26, 2020 10:45 pm

Potential for snow on new years eve looks to be diminishing with a strong Bermuda high forecast to emerge. :double:
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Re: Deep South/Southeast Winter 2020-21

#12 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Jan 05, 2021 6:42 am

06Z Gfs and 0Z Euro are interesting for the deep south.

ImageImage

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Re: Deep South/Southeast Winter 2020-21

#13 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Tue Jan 05, 2021 10:10 am

A massive snow storm forecast for Georgia from 1-19 to 1-21 on the 06z GFS run.
Unfortunate that it is too far out to give any real credibility to.
Lets hope :double:
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Re: Deep South/Southeast Winter 2020-21

#14 Postby NXStumpy_Robothing » Tue Jan 05, 2021 6:53 pm

18z GFS was very unenthusiastic about anything in the mid-to long-range. Keeping an eye on this week's system to see if a slightly slower and more southern track can emerge, increasing chances for snow on the backside where I am at least. The atmospheric profile isn't terrible, but it's just not quite cold enough.
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Re: Deep South/Southeast Winter 2020-21

#15 Postby Jag95 » Wed Jan 06, 2021 11:42 am

Ivanhater wrote:06Z Gfs and 0Z Euro are interesting for the deep south.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210105/2c18b46b091ecf9097bfa97b9ba18253.jpg https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210105/66cf22b57791f2a50b066d99d904fab8.jpg

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The 6Z run is still very border line for a wintry mix just inland from the northern Gulf coast. The GFS shows all rain, but a thermal profile near freezing at 950mb. Mobile NWS shows a chance of rain/snow over the inland counties on Sunday night with temps around freezing.
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Re: Deep South/Southeast Winter 2020-21

#16 Postby NXStumpy_Robothing » Fri Jan 08, 2021 5:51 pm

For those of you in northern Louisiana, looks like you might get a pretty good winter event this weekend/this upcoming Monday. Wouldn't be surprised to see upwards of 6 inches of snow being reported there in isolated areas.
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Re: Deep South/Southeast Winter 2020-21

#17 Postby NXStumpy_Robothing » Sun Jan 10, 2021 8:23 pm

For those of us in Northern Georgia, the NWS has put out this graphic indicating where they think snowfall (if any) might occur. Your best luck is to be following I-20 westward across state borders though :P

Image
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Re: Deep South/Southeast Winter 2020-21

#18 Postby Jag95 » Tue Jan 12, 2021 10:21 am

I don't know if it's worth mentioning, but the 06Z shows a very cold rain along the Deep South this weekend. Temps in the 30s and low 40s.
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Re: Deep South/Southeast Winter 2020-21

#19 Postby MississippiWx » Tue Jan 12, 2021 12:50 pm

People in MS and Alabama may be surprised by some snowflakes or sleet tomorrow morning. Some guidance is hinting at light winter precip tomorrow morning as an upper disturbance passes through. I, for one, would be ecstatic to see it!
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Re: Deep South/Southeast Winter 2020-21

#20 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Thu Jan 28, 2021 12:08 pm

Latest Gfs (12z jan 28) run shows significant snow across most of Georgia starting at 216 hours out.
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