Deep South/Southeast Winter 2020-21

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Jag95
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Re: Deep South/Southeast Winter 2020-21

#41 Postby Jag95 » Mon Feb 08, 2021 6:08 pm

bella_may wrote:GFS with a big snow event all the way down to the coast mid next week. Hopefully it doesn’t change again! And temps close to single digits all the way down to the coast. Wow! Don’t think I’ve ever seen that


I remember a few years ago when we had that big sleet storm the streets were like ice rinks for 2 or 3 days. This looks like the same type thing. It'll be interesting just how far south and east that cold air gets. Looks like the models dive it straight south into TX and just kind of ooze it this way, with the GFS showing the temps going below freezing Sunday night on the coast and barely reaching 32 until Thursday.
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Re: RE: Re: Deep South/Southeast Winter 2020-21

#42 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Feb 08, 2021 6:19 pm

Jag95 wrote:
bella_may wrote:GFS with a big snow event all the way down to the coast mid next week. Hopefully it doesn’t change again! And temps close to single digits all the way down to the coast. Wow! Don’t think I’ve ever seen that


I remember a few years ago when we had that big sleet storm the streets were like ice rinks for 2 or 3 days. This looks like the same type thing. It'll be interesting just how far south and east that cold air gets. Looks like the models dive it straight south into TX and just kind of ooze it this way, with the GFS showing the temps going below freezing Sunday night on the coast and barely reaching 32 until Thursday.


I don't know about snow. Looks like ice :cold:

Looks like multiple low pressure systems riding along the coast the over the next week. If the low can stay far enough south in the Gulf there is a shot for wintry precip along the Gulf coast.

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Re: RE: Re: Deep South/Southeast Winter 2020-21

#43 Postby bella_may » Mon Feb 08, 2021 6:28 pm

Ivanhater wrote:
Jag95 wrote:
bella_may wrote:GFS with a big snow event all the way down to the coast mid next week. Hopefully it doesn’t change again! And temps close to single digits all the way down to the coast. Wow! Don’t think I’ve ever seen that


I remember a few years ago when we had that big sleet storm the streets were like ice rinks for 2 or 3 days. This looks like the same type thing. It'll be interesting just how far south and east that cold air gets. Looks like the models dive it straight south into TX and just kind of ooze it this way, with the GFS showing the temps going below freezing Sunday night on the coast and barely reaching 32 until Thursday.


I don't know about snow. Looks like ice :cold:

Looks like multiple low pressure systems riding along the coast the over the next week. If the low can stay far enough south in the Gulf there is a shot for wintry precip along the Gulf coast.

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I was looking at the snow depth forecast and forgot that it accounts for all frozen precipitation and not just snow. Hopefully that changes lol
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Re: Deep South/Southeast Winter 2020-21

#44 Postby LAwxrgal » Mon Feb 08, 2021 7:58 pm

Ice storms are no fun - especially in the deep south. Power outages are a possibility too, so that's no fun either. Not too many people have the proper tires to drive in ice down here.

Warm now in SE LA - ample time to prepare for whatever is possibly coming this weekend. The models are all over the place, they don't have a good handle on this air. I only remember a couple times in my childhood where it got sustained cold, I remember sustained heat waves more than sustained cold snaps.
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Re: Deep South/Southeast Winter 2020-21

#45 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Feb 10, 2021 11:22 am

The trend is for a major ice storm for the deep south. Each run is getting stronger and further south.

If this happens, this will be a crippling ice storm for the deep south,all the way to the Gulf coast.

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Re: Deep South/Southeast Winter 2020-21

#46 Postby NXStumpy_Robothing » Wed Feb 10, 2021 12:30 pm

If this season has taught me anything so far, you can go ahead and discard that wintry mix in north Georgia. That's 100% going to be 34 degrees and cold rain, somehow.

On a more serious note, I am definitely keeping my eye on this event. Seems like it has the potential to be a serious snow and ice producer even after it leaves Texas.
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Re: Deep South/Southeast Winter 2020-21

#47 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Feb 10, 2021 12:47 pm

Yeah. I know all the focus is in the Texas thread now but I am growing very concerned by the day of major ice storm for the deep south and coastal gulf coast
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Re: Deep South/Southeast Winter 2020-21

#48 Postby BigB0882 » Wed Feb 10, 2021 2:32 pm

I am supposed to be flying back in from Orlando Wednesday night. I wasn't worried until I saw these crippling ice storms. I live in Baton Rouge so even if its a strong gradient and New Orleans is fine, it would be possible that the roads into Baton Rouge would be closed. Not looking forward to that possibility.
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Re: Deep South/Southeast Winter 2020-21

#49 Postby Jag95 » Wed Feb 10, 2021 3:14 pm

That map..ugh. A decent snow event all the way to the coast in western LA and not a flake here. I'll take the rain over sleet/ice any day and twice on Sunday. A lot depends on the placement of that low pressure system, if it even verifies, and the colder air it might wrap down. Living on the coast means it's got to be jussst right. This event is still almost a week away and the map will change again, for better or worse.
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Re: Deep South/Southeast Winter 2020-21

#50 Postby BigB0882 » Wed Feb 10, 2021 3:24 pm

Jag95 wrote:That map..ugh. A decent snow event all the way to the coast in western LA and not a flake here. I'll take the rain over sleet/ice any day and twice on Sunday. A lot depends on the placement of that low pressure system, if it even verifies, and the colder air it might wrap down. Living on the coast means it's got to be jussst right. This event is still almost a week away and the map will change again, for better or worse.


I wouldn't focus on precip type at this point. They aren't even good at nailing that nearly 24 hours out. I remember once not that long ago expecting an almost all snow event and we got sleet for hours with a few flakes mixed in here and there. Total bust on the precip type and I have seen the opposite happen where changeover to snow happened way faster than expected and we ended up with 4 inches of snow no one really called for.
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Re: Deep South/Southeast Winter 2020-21

#51 Postby Steve » Wed Feb 10, 2021 3:50 pm

Ivanhater wrote:Yeah. I know all the focus is in the Texas thread now but I am growing very concerned by the day of major ice storm for the deep south and coastal gulf coast


It's too early, but some of the models show this may even be a repetitive pattern.
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Re: Deep South/Southeast Winter 2020-21

#52 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Feb 10, 2021 4:20 pm

Steve wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:Yeah. I know all the focus is in the Texas thread now but I am growing very concerned by the day of major ice storm for the deep south and coastal gulf coast


It's too early, but some of the models show this may even be a repetitive pattern.


I noticed that as well Steve. Multiple lows forming in the western Gulf and ejecting east. Another thing to note, the models are sagging the arctic air further south and east as runs go by which would be consistent with an arctic air mass.

Btw, good to chat with you during off season. That doesn't happen too often :lol:
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Re: Deep South/Southeast Winter 2020-21

#53 Postby Steve » Wed Feb 10, 2021 6:05 pm

Yeah, like a bear, I'm usually in hibernation mode. But I figured I'd check in because the GFS has been forecasting this for a few days now. And the time is getting shorter (+/- Monday or Mardi Gras Day). I had to move to Pensacola for a while, and it looks like we may be a hair too far east to see ice or snow. I love to watch ice and snow, but I don't need to be out there driving in it, that's for sure.
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Re: Deep South/Southeast Winter 2020-21

#54 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Feb 10, 2021 8:42 pm

Steve wrote:Yeah, like a bear, I'm usually in hibernation mode. But I figured I'd check in because the GFS has been forecasting this for a few days now. And the time is getting shorter (+/- Monday or Mardi Gras Day). I had to move to Pensacola for a while, and it looks like we may be a hair too far east to see ice or snow. I love to watch ice and snow, but I don't need to be out there driving in it, that's for sure.


Absolutely. I think Pensacola is too far east as of now but coastal Louisiana and Mississippi look good. Still about 5 days out and if the low doesn't eject NE as fast and hangs further SE like the cmc, who knows.
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Re: Deep South/Southeast Winter 2020-21

#55 Postby Steve » Wed Feb 10, 2021 10:23 pm

You’re right. I learned a lot on this site on Christmas Eve 2004. Models have a hard time progging ENE moving winter Gulf lows. We got decent snow Christmas morning as the low was slightly farther south than most of the globals had indicated. Looking forward to the 00 GFS.
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Re: Deep South/Southeast Winter 2020-21

#56 Postby bella_may » Thu Feb 11, 2021 6:20 am

Most of the 06z models trended southeast this morning. It’s gonna be an interesting next few days
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Re: Deep South/Southeast Winter 2020-21

#57 Postby WinterMax » Fri Feb 12, 2021 8:36 am

Where are you all? I'm around Ville Platte La. What's the verdict at this point?
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Re: Deep South/Southeast Winter 2020-21

#58 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Feb 12, 2021 9:44 am

WinterMax wrote:Where are you all? I'm around Ville Platte La. What's the verdict at this point?


The latest trends have been sending the Arctic air mass straight south into Texas then moderates significantly as it heads east.
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Re: Deep South/Southeast Winter 2020-21

#59 Postby Stormcenter » Fri Feb 12, 2021 10:36 am

Odds are good right now as far east as SW MS. will have several opportunities to see some form of frozen precip
on Monday night/Tues am and again possibly Thursday.
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Re: RE: Re: Deep South/Southeast Winter 2020-21

#60 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Feb 12, 2021 10:56 am

Stormcenter wrote:Odds are good right now as far east as SW MS. will have several opportunities to see some form of frozen precip
on Monday night/Tues am and again possibly Thursday.


12Z Gfs backs this up.

Anyone east of this is on the warm side as the low ejects NE.

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