Deep South/Southeast Winter 2020-21

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bella_may
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Re: Deep South/Southeast Winter 2020-21

#61 Postby bella_may » Fri Feb 12, 2021 12:16 pm

Models are still all over the place. Don’t let your guard down yet especially if you’re in south LA, MS or AL. The timing between freezing rain and cold rain/sleet is gonna be very, very close.
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Re: Deep South/Southeast Winter 2020-21

#62 Postby Stormcenter » Fri Feb 12, 2021 12:38 pm

Very true.


bella_may wrote:Models are still all over the place. Don’t let your guard down yet especially if you’re in south LA, MS or AL. The timing between freezing rain and cold rain/sleet is gonna be very, very close.
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Re: Deep South/Southeast Winter 2020-21

#63 Postby LAwxrgal » Fri Feb 12, 2021 1:55 pm

You need 2 ingredients for winter precipitation in the south - cold air and moisture. Looks like we will have both, in spades.

Who sees what depends on timing and location of the low, where it sets up.
As far as Louisiana and points east, models still don't have that great a handle on this shallow dense air - air that is frigid at the surface but well above freezing above it. So, they're all over the place. It's likely we won't know until possibly Sunday who gets what.

I have relatives in the Beaumont area of SE TX and they're likely going to get hammered with both historical cold weather and multiple rounds of wintry precipitation. I thought about taking a trip over there, lol, but decided against it.
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Re: Deep South/Southeast Winter 2020-21

#64 Postby Frank P » Fri Feb 12, 2021 5:41 pm

18z GFS temps.... GFS continue to trend lower throughout the past several runs...

Image
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Re: Deep South/Southeast Winter 2020-21

#65 Postby MGC » Sat Feb 13, 2021 3:05 pm

With a hard freeze forecast for Mardi Gras morning, I've been bring in all the plants and covered the outside faucets. Hopefully this is only a one night event with expected temperatures to reach the low 20's here near the coast. As long as I stay out of the freezing rain I'll be OK. Folks over in Louisiana and areas of Mississippi could see a crippling ice storm. Y'all stay safe and stay off the roads......MGC
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Re: Deep South/Southeast Winter 2020-21

#66 Postby bella_may » Sat Feb 13, 2021 10:55 pm

00z models continue to inch the freezing rain further southeast...
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Re: Deep South/Southeast Winter 2020-21

#67 Postby MississippiWx » Sun Feb 14, 2021 12:15 am

bella_may wrote:00z models continue to inch the freezing rain further southeast...


NWS Mobile just sent out a Special Weather Statement stating their NW counties in SE Mississippi and SW Alabama will be put under a Winter Storm Watch later tonight due to recent colder trends.
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Re: Deep South/Southeast Winter 2020-21

#68 Postby NXStumpy_Robothing » Sun Feb 14, 2021 1:23 am

bella_may wrote:00z models continue to inch the freezing rain further southeast...

I can easily see Lake Charles and New Orleans having to add more counties to their warnings. Not a good trend for those wanting to avoid an icy mess in southern Louisiana/Mississippi.
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Re: Deep South/Southeast Winter 2020-21

#69 Postby Jag95 » Sun Feb 14, 2021 1:31 am

They first called our low for tonight to stagnate at 42 and have dropped it by 2 degrees three times to the current 36. The models are usually pretty accurate this close in, but if that low tracks a few miles to the east things might get interesting.
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Re: Deep South/Southeast Winter 2020-21

#70 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Feb 14, 2021 6:31 am

You don't see this every day. Image

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Re: Deep South/Southeast Winter 2020-21

#71 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Feb 14, 2021 8:12 am

Stay off the roads if you canImage

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Re: Deep South/Southeast Winter 2020-21

#72 Postby Jag95 » Sun Feb 14, 2021 1:10 pm

Some places in MS where they are calling for freezing rain and sleet may be in for a surprise. The GFS soundings show that there should be a pretty stout warm nose at 850mb at this time in those areas but Natchez and Greenwood are reporting light snow. So is Haleyville AL.
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Re: Deep South/Southeast Winter 2020-21

#73 Postby cycloneye » Sun Feb 14, 2021 1:10 pm

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Re: Deep South/Southeast Winter 2020-21

#74 Postby cycloneye » Sun Feb 14, 2021 1:23 pm

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Re: Deep South/Southeast Winter 2020-21

#75 Postby bella_may » Sun Feb 14, 2021 2:08 pm

Jag95 wrote:Some places in MS where they are calling for freezing rain and sleet may be in for a surprise. The GFS soundings show that there should be a pretty stout warm nose at 850mb at this time in those areas but Natchez and Greenwood are reporting light snow. So is Haleyville AL.

Yeah I’m surprised at how conservative the NWS is being considering this system has been consistently over performing the models
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Re: Deep South/Southeast Winter 2020-21

#76 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Feb 14, 2021 6:55 pm

I'm excited for the folks in Texas. They are getting their winter wonderland!

For us on the Gulf coast, Mobile county added to the advisory.

ImageImage

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Re: Deep South/Southeast Winter 2020-21

#77 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Sun Feb 14, 2021 7:01 pm

This is torture. All this snow talk and I can't get a taste.
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Re: Deep South/Southeast Winter 2020-21

#78 Postby SunnyThoughts » Sun Feb 14, 2021 7:04 pm

MOBILE, Ala. (WALA) -- With the possibility of a winter storm bringing icy conditions to the area, Mobile Mayor Sandy Stimpson said the city will close roads if it is necessary.

The public works department will be putting sand on pockets of black ice that develop, but without a stockpile of salt for the road, the mayor said closures are likely.

"It is extremely dangerous to drive in these kinds of conditions, and we are prepared to close individual roads as needed if they become unsafe to travel. If a widespread event leaves a majority of roadways unsafe to travel, a state of emergency would be declared," Stimpson said.

The ice could form Monday night into Tuesday morning.

The mayor said a citywide curfew could be declared if road conditions become unsafe.
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Re: Deep South/Southeast Winter 2020-21

#79 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Feb 14, 2021 7:08 pm

SunnyThoughts wrote:MOBILE, Ala. (WALA) -- With the possibility of a winter storm bringing icy conditions to the area, Mobile Mayor Sandy Stimpson said the city will close roads if it is necessary.

The public works department will be putting sand on pockets of black ice that develop, but without a stockpile of salt for the road, the mayor said closures are likely.


"It is extremely dangerous to drive in these kinds of conditions, and we are prepared to close individual roads as needed if they become unsafe to travel. If a widespread event leaves a majority of roadways unsafe to travel, a state of emergency would be declared," Stimpson said.

The ice could form Monday night into Tuesday morning.

The mayor said a citywide curfew could be declared if road conditions become unsafe.


Thanks for the update, Sunny!
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Re: Deep South/Southeast Winter 2020-21

#80 Postby cycloneye » Sun Feb 14, 2021 7:26 pm

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